More depressing is the fact that we are down to a mere 7 games in this NFL season (Unless you watch the Pro Bowl…..I have not seen anything more than highlights since I was 10 years old. Sure, there are going to be some really solid games out of the seven, but I already feel withdrawal coming on.

I was surprised this weekend by the results of two of the games. I was positive that Baltimore would win by the largest margin, and had great faith in the Eagles….but I thought Michael Turner would be way too much for the Cardinals to handle and the wounded Chargers would put up a dismal showing while Peyton Manning ran circles around their defensive backs. Let’s take a look at what happened, and how I feel heading into the next weekends worth of games.

Ravens over Dolphins or “Ed Reed, ball magnet.”

After deciding that the Dolphins were not going to move the ball on the Ravens, I was quite shocked when they recovered an early Ravens fumble and marched 50 yards to find themselves at 2^nd and goal from the 1. Chad Pennington and his merry band of castoffs, dope smokers, and comers back from near career ending injuries were going to make a game out of this. In my estimation, they made a mistake though. The Ravens obviously were going to be playing physical, talking physical, and likely intimidating the Dolphins Offense. You have 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th downs to gain one yard and go up 7 in a low scoring game. Punch that ball forward 3 times. Show them you are ready to take it right to them and don’t think they can stop you. If they do stop you, show them that you think they can’t dig themselves out from their own 1 yard line. Change the psychological makeup of the game. Instead, incomplete pass, run for zero, 19 yard field goal.

Is it just me or is Ed Reed randomly places where it doesn’t seem like he should even be…yet the ball happens to go there. Not so much this game…but other times this year he seemed to be standing in the middle of nowhere which happened to be right where the quarterback was throwing it. The guy just seems to have a sense of where the play is headed. Time and time again Ed Reed is in the picture. Ray Lewis might be the heart of this defense, but Ed Reed is either ……A. Simply dump lucky a whole lot, which is unlikely In the NFL or B. Has an absolutely incredible football IQ and is the brain of the operation. I’m guessing B. Of all the things he does well, I’m amazed how he transitions from defender to offense when he gets the ball. Many D-Backs (And certainly linebackers and D-Linemen) hesitate for a second as if they aren’t sure what they should be doing. Reed knows what he’s doing and that is trying to get the ball as close to the enemy end zone as he can.

The biggest surprise of this game had to be the number of turnovers by Chad Pennington. Pennington isn’t going to blow you away with his arm strength or take a game over by himself, but he’s always been a pretty smart QB, knowing when to give up on a play and take the loss of down instead of loss of yardage or a turnover. He has played in 85 games to this point and has thrown multiple interceptions in only 14 of them…..one disaster 5 INT outing earlier in his career, two 3 INT outings, and eleven 2 INT outings. That means 82/85 games were 2 INT’s or less. On Sunday, he threw four of them and I think all were into at least double coverage. You’ve made a living throwing the ball away instead of trying to make these throws, why force it now?

A big answer, of course, could be the threat of being flattened by a Raven’s defender. They came up with three sacks, which isn’t a huge number, but I couldn’t help but notice that on many a play a Ravens defender would at least tap their target fairly lightly on the shoulder after the throw. I wondered if that was by design to say “Hey, I was RIGHT there. Better get the ball away quicker next time.”

Miami did have a sweet sequence at the start of the fourth. Leading by 17, the Ravens were playing pretty soft at the line. Davone Bess was lined up in the slot and took a step towards the receiver split wide and a split back. Pennington tossed him the ball and he turned on the jets. He made several Ravens miss en route to a big gain. 2 plays later, the Dolphins had 2^nd and goal from the 2. In a Big I formation, Tight End Anthony Fasano went into motion and planted at the “H-Back” spot. Pennington took the snap and kind of bumbled into Fasano. At this point the play looks a little broken and he goes to hand off to Ronnie Brown. Ronnie Brown doesn’t take the ball but sprints at oncoming 2 time Pro Bowl linebacker Terrell Suggs as if to pass block but instead goes around him. Suggs was all twisted up and Brown was wide open for the Dolphins only Touchdown.

The Ravens offense consisted mostly of plugging away with LeRon Mclain, and Joe Flacco did not have his brightest day. There were some moments though. To set up their first field goal, Todd Heap ran straight about five yards and cut across towards the opposite sideline. Let’s face it, the Ravens do not have many receiving weapons but somehow, Heap was forgotten in the mix. Flacco hit him in stride to take the team down inside the five.

The Next big Ravens play (I promised to be done disrespecting the Dolphins, but this must be noted) was set up by an interesting sequence. The Dolphins got the ball on their own 20 with just over 2:30 to play. Terrell Suggs busts into the backfield and tosses Pennington for a loss of 12. The clock ticks to the two minute warning and the Dolphins have 2^nd and 22 at their 8 yard line. The Ravens hold two time outs. Pass complete for five yards, Ravens burn a timeout. 3^rd and 17 at the 13. PASS INCOMPLETE. WHY, oh WHY are you trying to convert 3^rd and 17 in this situation? Run forward and force the Ravens to let a lot of time tick or use their last time out.

Suddenly the Ravens have the ball on their 41 with 1:30 and a timeout to play with. A nine yard run gets them to midfield. With that timeout in hand, they take their time, call a play, and Flacco hits Derrick Mason on a 31 yard sideline pattern putting them well within field goal range and with an opportunity for a touchdown. They settled for the field goal, but that was poor clock management. The fantastic play on this occasion was by Mason. All year I have been praising the old receiver’s agility near the sidelines. I don’t know how many balls he has caught keeping two toes in bounds but that has been a signature play for Baltimore this season. The Dolphins (I hope…but it doesn’t seem as if they had a clue) had to know it was coming and failed to stop it. Derrick Mason doesn’t have the gaudy numbers as some Wide Receivers in the league, but I’m not sure there are very many (If any) that have been more valuable to their team.

Up by 11 with 4 minutes to go, the Ravens found themselves at the Dolphins 5, 3^rd and goal. Surely the Ravens will run up the middle, tick some time off the clock, and content themselves with a 14 point lead, right? Flacco took the snap and dropped back to pass. An eternity later he was standing in the end zone as the result of a designed QB draw. Joe Flacco is either one of those guys that is really fast but looks slow, or is simply pretty slow. I’m guessing he’s actually speed challenged but he has managed to break off some pretty decent runs this season.

It was a great season by the Dolphins but they simply met a superior team. I really like this Ravens squad and think that with the Colts sent packing, the team they match up the worst against is out of the way. The Titans and Steelers have advantages over the Ravens (Experience at the QB position possibly being huge against these aggressive defenses) but the Ravens CAN beat those teams.

Statistical Notes – Mclain has scored 7 TD’s in the last 8 games. The Ravens defense has 27 takeaways in the last 9 games. They have scored 7 defensive touchdowns. Ed Reed has four of them and has more touchdowns this season than all Ravens but Mcclain, Willis Mcgahee, and Derrick Mason. Joe Flacco has 148 or fewer passing yards in four of the last five games. The Dolphins had 13 turnovers in 16 regular season games, and five in one post season game.

Cardinals over Falcons “Cardinals coaches discover that the rules allow teams to RUN the ball as well as pass it.”

I had no confidence in the Cardinals going into this game. I admit it. The stomping that Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Sammy Morris, and Lamont Jordan had me thinking 400 yards and 6 touchdowns for Michael Turner. Their complete neglect of the run in the second half of the season combined with Edgerrin James blowup early in the week made me think the Falcons would just Tee off on Kurt Warner. Somewhere along the lines, the Cardinals coaching staff realized that EVERYONE was thinking that and decided to do something different.

For weeks I have been imploring the Cardinals to at least TRY running the ball to keep defenses honest and open things up for their pass happy offense. On their second possession they came out with handoff, handoff, handoff, handoff….flea flicker and a big touchdown. Of course, Atlanta’s defensive backs were not fooled and chased Larry Fitzgerald into the end zone. He was simply too big, too strong, too fast for them to handle. Oh yeah, and Kurt Warner put the ball in the perfect spot. Man, Kurt Warner is really an accurate passer. Not to be outdone, Anquan Boldin took a short pass 71 yards for a touchdown. The play that was called in this situation was “trips left gin and tonic twist lime”. At least that is the name it went by a few years back when I was quarterbacking a touch football league. Three receivers line up to one side with one hanging slightly back. The two outside receivers run forward and twist around one another trying to confuse the defenders. In touch/flag football using crossing and twisting routes is pretty effective, so the defenders bite on one of those receivers being the intended target. Often forgotten is the man bringing up the rear. Apparently this play works in Pro Football too, as Atlanta completely forgot to cover Anquan Boldin. Uncontested, he caught a pass in stride and torched the Falcon’s secondary with a tweaked hammy. Here is a free tip for teams playing the Cardinals in the future: NEVER forget about Anquan Boldin.

I wanted to mention both of those guys to segue into a confession. I’ve been forcing myself to hate Larry Fitzgerald for a long time now, for no other reason than the fact that I really really like Anquan Boldin. This is perhaps one of the most irrational and childish opinions I have held about the NFL. This season….watching Fitzgerald…I realized that A. He is a slightly better receiver than Boldin (First time I have admitted that) and B. I really like his game. He doesn’t drop balls, he doesn’t act like a jerk, and he doesn’t whine if Boldin or (Bryant Johnson/Steve Breaston) get more looks in a game.

Anyway, back on track. This was a pretty weird game momentum wise. First you have the Falcons go down 14-3 despite second after mounting a 14 play, 80 yard drive. I always feel this is the type of thing that is most damaging to a team. Grinding it out for 8 minutes to get three points, starting to feel good, and then watching the opponent return a kick or end up with a 50+ yard rushing or passing touchdown. You worked so hard and they did it so easy! Still, Atlanta recovered and mounted another long drive, this time into the end zone. They get a turnover before half, and end up leading. They had to feel pretty good. They survived two huge offensive plays and kept the Cardinals defense on the field for 22 minutes. They had to be wearing down. It was time to pound the ball.

Coming out of halftime, a handoff got botched and bounced directly into the hands of Antrel Rolle for a touchdown. Yup, now the Cardinals have 21 points on you despite holding the ball only 8 minutes. Of course, Antrel Rolle was lucky to get into the end zone. He decided he could hold the ball out with one hand and start prancing at the 15 yard line. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan was charging him as fast as he could and almost made it to slap at the ball. It was a very foolish risk on Antrel Rolle’s part and a good display of Ryan’s determination and character. The question is…..if the Falcon’s relatively slow rookie QB was in the picture, where were the speedy veteran receivers or running backs? Standing around or walking to the sidelines of course! Falcons offensive players! Follow your rookie’s lead! The play isn’t over until it’s over. Disaster strikes? Get moving and try to do something about it!

The Falcons were flustered by this point and a loss of one, an offensive holding, a delay of game, and two drops later they have 4^th and 25 at their own 5. They manage to get off a good punt given the circumstances, but a fifteen yard illegal contact call gives the Cardinals the ball on the 38. Even though the result of the ensuing drive was a missed field goal, Atlanta seemed to have their shoulders sagging and never really recovered.

Another play that could have really changed the momentum but did not was on the Falcon’s first drive. They faced 3^rd and 10 from the Cardinals 20 yard line. Michael Jenkins ran and out pattern near the sticks and his defender fell down. Jenkins did not know his defender fell down and though he came down well in bounds, he made only a token effort to reach the ball past the first down marker. He had a good 2, maybe 3 steps to try something but looked like he expected to get hit and instead held on his course. Had he shifted his weight and dove with all he had he probably would have made it. Nobody likes to lay themselves out to get hit but in this case a little extra effort may have gone a long way.

Later in the game, Matt Ryan was called in the grasp while in the end zone resulting in a safety. The screen flashed to what I thought was Darnell Dockett in a fight with a Falcon’s Offensive lineman in the end zone. He was jumping and landing his considerable weight on the man’s back. A closer look revealed that it was the man who came up with the sack, Antonio Smith, who he was abusing. This is how the Cardinals treat each other when they do well? Ouch! I hate to see what happens when they are frustrated with each other! At any rate, the Cardinals defense bounced back from being horrible as of late. If that is what it takes to get them fired up, so be it.

The Falcons came charging back with an impressive drive by “Matty Ice” who completed 7 of 9 passes on a 58 yard touchdown drive to cut the lead to 6. I really think the “Matty Ice” nickname should be dropped. What kind of role model is he? A generation of Atlanta youth could grow up thinking Natural Ice is a tasty beverage! That and with his new contract you know darn well he’ll never touch the stuff again in his life.

With over 4 minutes left and holding two timeouts, the Falcons kicked deep having a few chances to hold the Cardinals. Going against every purist nerve in my body, the Cardinals threw 15 yards up the middle to Larry Fitzgerald. Ok, they got one first down, that’s huge. The will run now, right? One run, no gain, Falcons timeout. The Cardinals gamble AGAIN and throw it downfield and gain 25 yards and a first down. A standard run for 2 yards later they try a crazy reverse and lose 8 yards leaving them with 3^rd and 16 near midfield. Run the ball and you take it down to the two minute warning with a chance to pin the Falcons deep in their own territory with no timeouts. No! Warner is dropping back to pass and guns it 23 yards to Stephen Spach for a first down. I didn’t know what surprised me more, the fact that they threw it or the fact that I didn’t realize the Cardinals actually had Tight Ends on the roster. Those deep balls ensured that the Cardinals didn’t have to give the ball back and were a good strategy only because NOBODY thought that even they would do that.

Statistical Notes – This victory gives Kurt Warner a 6-2 record in the post season. His two losses came by three points each and in both games he passed for exactly 365 yards. Weird. Larry Fitzgerald has 22 100 yard games out of his last 60. The Falcons were held to their lowest rushing total of the year (60 yards)…which was 203 fewer than they had last weekend against the Rams. Matt Ryan’s first regular season pass? A long TD. His first playoff pass? An interception. He knows how to set a tone I guess. Ryan threw 6 picks in his first 12 games and 7 in his last 5. At halftime, the Falcons had a first down advantage of 16 to the Cardinals 4 and were only up by three points.

Eagles over Vikings or “Why Quarterbacks matter.”

Back when Donovan Mcnabb was benched by the Eagles in the loss to the Ravens, I speculated that Zygi Wolf spent the night salivating all over the salary cap paperwork in his office, figuring out a way to get Mcnabb under center for the Vikings in 2009. There are teams out there that would love to get their hands on a veteran like Mcnabb, but for some reason the Eagles fans seem to always be on the verge of running him out of town. My advice to Philly management…..detain anyone who could possibly look at Kevin Kolb and talk themselves into him being a better option for this team. They are obviously insane.

I figured this game would come down to what the quarterbacks could do. I didn’t anticipate either team to run the ball well, and they didn’t. Peterson’s 83 yards and 2 TD’s does not look bad from a fantasy perspective but he was mostly ineffective. His one 40 yard run came on a play where several Eagles defenders appeared to trip over their own feet or something, leaving nothing in the way of Peterson and the end zone. The rest of the day was gain of 2, loss of 1, gain of 2, gain of 3, etc. The Eagle’s attempts at running Westbrook were even more futile.

Brian Westbrook still came up with one of the big plays of the game, a 73 yard screen pass that was about as pure of a team effort as I have seen. After Westbrook caught the ball, three Eagles players ran towards him to spring him into the secondary for a larger gain. Not to be outdone by their larger blocking team mates, Desean Jackson made a good block and Kevin Curtis made a spectacular block to pave the way for Westbrook to reach the end zone. The best thing a coach can urge his players to do is to never give up on a play. The odds of Curtis and Jackson needing to make blocks 50 yards away from the line of scrimmage were not real good but they were in position to do so anyway.

The Vikings probably need to give up on the Tavaris Jackson experiment. He was looking better after Frerotte went down with an injury and he was reinstated as the starter but he just doesn’t have it. Too many of his 20 incomplete passes were “cover your eyes” or maybe “Uhhhh, where was that throw supposed to be to?” bad. Ultimately it was a problem with poise. The Eagles only sacked him one time but they were bringing the pressure. He stopped even trying to plant his feet and was just chucking the ball around while stumbling backwards, stumbling sideways, or jumping in the air. I am not sure that he completed a pass more than five yards through the air all game long.

Maybe Jackson isn’t the only Viking that needs to go. I have not heard Vikings fans say too many kind things about Brad Childress and I really have to question his judgement on the Eagles second possession. Desean Jackson gave the Eagles the ball at the Vikings 27 yard line. Three plays later the Eagles were on the 26 with an offensive holding call awaiting the Vikings decision. They chose to decline it? David Akers kicked a 43 yard field goal for the first points of the game. Had the Vikings accepted the penalty the Eagles would have had 3^rd and 19 at the 36 yard line. If the Vikings hold them on that down they have a tough decision to make. It is hard to punt from the 36 but it’s hard to go on 4^th and 19. A 53 yard field goal is in Akers range but I’m guessing he’s a 33% success rate kicker from that distance. A miss gives the Vikings the ball at their 44.

As if the poised leader who completed a good percentage of his passes despite his receivers letting the ball bounce off their chests matched up against the sophomoric quivering mess was not a big enough advantage, the Vikings lost big time in another key area of the game. The pesky special teams. A few bad punts and some bad punt coverage cost the Vikings some serious field position. The Vikings averaged 31.6 net yards on 8 punts. Some big moments: The Vikings get pinned back at their own 10 on their first possession, Chris Kluwe punts 60 yards, Desean Jackson brings it back 62 yards, Kluwe punts from the Eagles 42 out of bounds at the Eagles 25 (Ugh, at least just kick It in the end zone), Sav Rocca punts from the 43 and pins the Vikings at their own 10 once again, Kluwe kicks it 51 yards and Jackson brings it back 30, Kluwe muffs one that luckily rolls to make it 36 yards, Rocca bangs another 51 yarder to pin the Vikings at their 15. Ouch. Average field position for the Eagles: 33 yard line. Average for the Vikings: 21 yard line. With 24 possessions, that is a big difference in real estate.

The Vikings were built to win now and had a heck of a run defense, pass rush, and running game this season. Inconsistent QB play really really hurt them. They need to rethink the position this offseason, as well as give Adrian Peterson some lessons on keeping the ball close to his body. He had a brilliant season but fumbled 10 times and seemed to be holding the ball farther away from his body as the season wore on.

Statistical Notes – The Eagles only reached the big game once, but they have been to the playoffs in 7 of the last 9 years. They have not been one and done in any of those seasons. The Vikings have been to the playoffs 3 times in that span and won 2 games total. Since throwing five picks in two miserable games against the Browns and Ravens, Mcnabb has thrown only 2 in six games. Brian Westbrook has 100+ total yards in each of his last six playoff appearances. He scored at least one touchdown in five of those games. Asante Samuel doesn’t mess around in the playoffs. He recorded his fourth playoff pick six this weekend. Tarvaris Jackson had looked much better since his reinstatement as QB, completing 64% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt, and throwing 8 touchdowns to only 1 interception. This weekend he completed 43% of his passes, averaged 4.8 yards per attempt, and threw 0 TD’s and 1 INT. Chester Taylor caught five balls tying Bernard Berrian with 50 catches and just six behind leader Bobby Wade. Taylor’s touches were way down this season but he has been an important part of the Vikings offense since he arrived in Minnesota.

Bolts over Colts or “Ok, I was really really wrong about this one.”

Not only did I say last week that the Colts would win this game handily, but I also made claims of how Darren Sproles was a fine player yet he was no Ladainian Tomlinson or Michael Turner. The Chargers advanced the ball 534 yards on offense and kick/punt returns. 327 of those yards belonged to the 5 foot 6 inch Sproles who also hit paydirt twice (Should have been three…more on that later). On the flipside Ladainian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson, by far the two most productive members of the Chargers offense during the regular season, combined for 25 yards. Of course, Tomlinson did not play very many snaps, but that may have worked in the Chargers favor. Perhaps the Colts underestimated the little guy a bit.

Even with the game that Darren Sproles had, the game MVP is clear to me. As special teams made quite a difference in the Eagles/Vikings games they also made a big difference here. “Who Dat” Punter Mike Scrifes was unconscious and constantly helped the Chargers maintain a huge field position advantage. The Chargers average starting field position? The 35 yard line. The Colts average starting position? The 15 yard line. Ouch. When you need 85 yards to reach pay dirt on every drive things will be tough. Check out Scrifes’ 6 punts. 51 yards to the Colts’ 10. 58 yards plus four return yards to the Colts’ 19. 50 yards to the Colts 3. 67 yards plus two return yards to the Colts’ 5. 38 yards to the Colts’ 9. 52 yards to the Colts 1. The six times the Chargers punted the Colts average start position was their own 8 yard line. It’s quite possible that this is the greatest performance by a punter I have ever seen with a nod to the coverage team too.

The Chargers defense which is now led by former Chicago Bear’s coordinator Ron Rivera used some interesting tactics to try to slow down Peyton Manning. Their Nickel package was a 2-4-5 set. The Chargers linebackers took their sweet time setting themselves and giving away any indication who was rushing the passer and who was dropping back. The Offensive line could only account for the two line men and figure out the rest at the last second. They did a good job of keeping the rush off of their QB but Manning did get chased out of the pocket more often than usual. Peyton Manning did find a way to exploit this once though. While the Chargers defense was playing their not set routine, Manning rushed his team to the line of scrimmage and had Reggie Wayne, split alone to the left run a fly pattern. Two Chargers defenders were 10 yards behind Wayne as he caught a perfect pass on the run and took it in for a touchdown.

The Chargers didn’t really adopt this plan until a bit later in the game. Peyton Manning had been very effective in the first quarter, finding Anthony Gonzales for several big plays. With 10 minutes to go in the second half Manning hooked up with Gonzales for a 20 yard gain. What is important about this moment? From this point on Manning completed the deep touchdown to Wayne when the Chargers’ defense was unprepared and later completed a 17 yard pass to Wayne. These were the only two completions after the 10 minute mark in the second quarter that went for over 9 yards. Between the Chargers’ attempts at confusing the blocking schemes and the ineptness of the Colts’ ground game their big play aerial attack faltered. From the time Wayne’s catch put the Colts up one to the ending gun the Colts ran 20 plays and gained a total of 40 yards. No wonder the Chargers were so confident going into overtime!

A new play emerged from the Colts huddle. In the second quarter facing 3^rd and 1 from the Charger’s 38, the Colts wanted to run the ball. To this point the Colts runners had gone for gains of 0,1,1,1,1,2 and 3 yards. Dallas Clark lined up on the right end a body length behind the line of scrimmage. He stepped back and started to the left, taking the handoff in the process. The Chargers clearly were not expecting a Tight End reverse and Clark gained 10 yards and a first down. To start the third quarter, the Colts had a 3^rd and 1 at the Chargers 34. Joseph Addai was stopped for no gain. They went on 4^th and 1 and Manning threw an incompletion. If you are willing to use Dallas Clark as a running back, why not let him in the fullback role in these short yardage situations? He can be a lead blocker, the up guy taking a short handoff and smashing forward, or go in motion to the spot he would start a route if they choose to pass. I have long believed the Colts and some other spread teams hurt themselves by not employing a bruising fullback. Handing off to the up back gets you to the line of scrimmage faster. Handing to a fullback led tailback means the defense has to deal with an extra blocker at the point of attack.

Darren Sproles’ only real blemish of the game was his fumble at the 2 yard line. Trying to get those extra few yards Sproles ended up with 2 much larger men hanging on his arms. He had the ball secured with two hands but when it came down to it, he couldn’t hang on. This was a demoralizing blow because the Colts had taken back the lead on the previous possession and the Chargers were getting the momentum back in their favor with a 78 yard drive. To his (And Norv Turner’s) credit, the next time the Chargers got the ball it did not seem as if the fumble ever happened. They kept their faith in him and he kept playing hard.

Statistical Notes – Antonio Gates had his least productive season since he was a rookie but came up with his second highest reception and yardage total of the year when it mattered. He already has 2 catches and 26 yards more than he had in three playoff games last year. Philip Rivers as 78 touchdowns to only 36 interceptions in his regular season career and has a 92.9 QB rating. In his playoff career he has 4 TD’s to 6 INT’s and a 73.9 rating. Peyton Manning has led the Colts to the playoffs nine times in his career. This is their sixth one and done showing. The Colts did not turn the ball over at all on Saturday. They have not lost a game where they did not turn the ball over since losing to the Broncos in December of 2003. Dallas Clark’s 7 receptions gave him 85 on the season and tied with him Reggie Wayne. Unfortunately, he only gained 33 yards.

So now that Wild Card Weekend is over, leaving four entire fan bases crushed until next season let us see who will be walking around next week with their chests puffed out and who will be carrying extra Kleenex.

Chargers at Steelers or (Line: Pittsburgh -6)

When last these two teams met the Steelers were starting their string of heart pounding come from behind victories and the Chargers were in the midst of what would turn out to be a 1-5 stretch. The end result? The most controversial 11-10 final in the history of the NFL. Actually, the only 11-10 finish in the history of the NFL. Some large sum of money was lost when the officials made an illegal forward pass call on the last play of the game that would have put the Steelers up 17-10 and put them over the odds line. A lot of people are going to point at the fact that the Chargers have won five straight and are hot right now. A lot of people are talking about Ben Roesthisberger’s concussion possibly affecting his play. A lot of people are going to look at the final score of that regular season game and talk about how tight the Chargers played the Steelers last time.

In reality the Steelers kicked the stuffing out of the Chargers. They were able to move the ball pretty freely and had the ball for 37 minutes. It just so happened that a usually disciplined team had a horrendous outing with 13 penalties for 130 or so yards. The Chargers aren’t going to get that kind of opportunity again and are going to once again have a hard time moving the ball against an absolutely intense defense. The Chargers will be lucky to put up 10 points on this team.

Verdict: Steelers win.

Cardinals at Panthers (Line: Panthers -10)

The Cardinals jumped to a 17-3 lead early in the first quarter before some big plays by Deangelo Williams and Steve Smith gave the Panthers a 21 point third quarter. Being one of those people tremendously surprised by what the Cardinals were able to do with Michael Turner, I can’t see the run defense tightening up and keeping off the field in the face of the Deangelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart onslaught. If Anquan Boldin does not play I think this game could be a big, big, blowout. If he does play the Kurt Warner aerial circus should at least put enough points on the board to keep it interesting.

Verdict: Panthers Win

Ravens at Titans (Line: Titans -3)

Looks like the betting public is giving the Ravens some respect. A sixth seed going on the road against the team with the best record in the NFL and only getting 3? Of course, they may just be thinking that the final score will be 9-5 or something like that. I don’t really like either of these teams to do much on offense against the other. Oddly though, I think the quarterback dynamic has changed greatly since the Titans beat the Ravens 13-10 in week 5. Joe Flacco was playing like you would expect a rookie quarterback to play back then. In the meantime, he has learned how to take care of the ball a little better and has begun to target his tight end Todd Heap. Leron Mcclain emerged as a true running threat and seems to have lit a fire under Willis Mcgahee. The Titans starters have not played in a game since December 21^st. Even with their fantastic line and running back Chris Johnson I don’t think they will be able to run on the Ravens. Despite reports to the contrary, I don’t think you can rely on Kerry Collins to win this sort of game for you…..at least not with the weapons available. The Titans have not turned the ball over much but after sitting for two full weeks and facing a really fired up Ravens defense, that may change.

Verdict: Ravens win.

Eagles at Giants (Line: Giants -4)

Another sixth seed going up against the number one team in the conference with the line giving up more than the 2 or 3 token home field advantage points. A sixth seed that seemed to have squandered any chance of making the playoffs after their week 16 loss to the Redskins. A team that in successive weeks tied the lowly Bengals and were beaten so bad by the Ravens that their veteran quarterback’s head was being called for after his benching. So why are people not charging to the sports book web sites by putting their money on the Giants?

Seriously, I see a little of last year’s Giants team in this year’s Eagles team. Eli Manning was taking a lot of criticism, nobody outside of the New York area really knew the names Osi Umenyiora or Justin Tuck, and the team was not expected to make the playoffs when they started to stumble. They came out and played a heck of a game (Granted they lost) against a star studded team in the Patriots heading into round one. The Eagles destroyed a start studded team in the Cowboys headed into round one. Their defense has played fantastic but isn’t garnering much attention. Donovan Mcnabb has been taking care of the ball really well. Brian Westbrook is healthy and playing very well.

The Giants are a pretty good team but it feels like they peaked too early. Their offense did not look like it did early in the season in weeks 14 and 15 against the Eagles and Cowboys. Their defense that looked so good early on has allowed at least 320 yards in six straight games, has 1 turnover in the last four, and gave up an average of 5 more points per game in the second half of the season. Brandon Jacobs and Dominick Hixon have been banged up recently and Plaxico Burress….well…. Fred Robbins missed some games recently and Justin Tuck is allegedly not 100%.

Verdict: Eagles Win

This weekend has some really intriguing matchups and is a purists’ dream playoff weekend. The top five defenses are represented amongst the eight teams. Only one of the top 4 offenses joins them. Four of the teams are in the top six in rushing offense. Five of the teams are in the bottom half of the league in passing offense. For those who don’t have a team to cheer for, break out your Ray Nitschke, Dick Butkus, Deacon Jones, Ronnie Lott, Dick “NightTrain” Lane or jersey from other defensive monster of the past and enjoy the show.

That’s not to say there isn’t plenty of season left. I still love the game, even when I do not have personal stakes in anything. There are some good football teams out there and some great games left on the docket. Let’s take a look at what transpired this week.

Bears over Saints or “Force Hester to catch the ball!”

On immediate glance at the game stats, it looks like this would have been the Saints game all the way. 120 more yards, 10 minutes Time of Possession edge, 1 fewer turnover. Looks like a dominating performance, right? Well, there are those two little things called penalties and special teams that really changed the face of this game.

Both times that the Bears went deep on the Saints, they were looking for speedster Devin Hester who had a step or two on his coverage. Both times the Saints interfered with the play leading to a total of 77 yards worth of penalties on those two plays. Both were on 3^rd down well out of field goal range. Devin Hester has been a great return man in previous years but his biggest weakness has been catching the ball. Don’t give him the sure yardage, make him prove he can hang onto it!

The scored on the first possession with a Daniel Manning kick return that saw nobody touch him past the Bears’ 40. Manning followed that up with a 57 yard return that led to a Bears touchdown soon after. For the Bears third score, a solid punt by Brad Maynard and a series of Penalties left the Saints punting from their 7 yard line and the Bears once again getting the ball in Saints territories. I don’t care how superior your offense is, if you lose the field position game you will win the game.

I was most impressed with Kyle Orton on Sunday. He played horribly for the majority of the game but he sucked it up when it counted. Going into the final drive of regulation he was 16-30 with 110 yards and 2 interceptions. Instead of crawling into a shell he displayed confidence spreading the ball around to five different receivers en route to an 8/10 62 yard finish. I truly believe Rex Grossman would have added another blunder to his list while Orton calmly left his poor performance behind him and rose to the occasion.

Drew Brees struggled for the 2^nd time in three weeks against an opponent that uses the cover 2 scheme. While it would seem that Brees and the Saints would pick apart the typical cover-2 defense, I think the Saints need that lateral game to really be effective. The Saints did not run enough plays to exploit the moderate length outside weaknesses of the defense and too often ended up having to settle for short completions.

Statistical Notes – In the last five games, Pierre Thomas has 574 total yards, 8 touchdowns, and 16 receptions. His 4.7 Yards per carry tower over both Reggie Bush and Deuce Mccallister. He has also proven to be a pretty decent kick return man. The undrafted rookie is essentially what people hoped Reggie Bush would be. Drew Brees has multiple TD passes in 13/14 games and now leads the league with 28. With 2 games left, rookie Matt Forte has 11 touchdowns, the most in a single season by a Bears player since Curtis Conway had 12 in 1995.

Falcons over Buccanneers or “The Brian Griese Aerial Circus.”

Once again, Tampa went to a pass happy offense when it has been their running game that has kept them winning this season. In their five losses, the Bucs have ran 211 passes to 106 rushing plays. In their 9 wins, they passed 283 times and ran 292 times. Four of their losses were at a combined 14 points. The 15 point romp by the Panthers was a tie game headed into the fourth. They aren’t passing the ball around during runaway games, they are passing in games that they are in…and losing them.

Despite the fact that the Bucs defense has been spectacular in pass defense and even better at creating turnovers, its painfully obvious that they are vulnerable to the run. Michael Turner had a lot of big gains where he simply wasn’t touched until he reached the secondary. The front seven of Tampa is wavering and that doesn’t bode well for them if they make the playoffs. The Vikings, Giants, Panthers, and Falcons…all playoff hopefuls….run the ball very well. The Bucs need to get a grip on run defense.

The Falcons played a pretty ugly game but it was good enough to get it done. After the first quarter, they only had three drives of any substance. These drives all ended in turnovers. The Harry Douglas fumble in the end zone was particularily painful.

Antonio Bryant is absolutely the comeback player of the year. After being juggled around by three teams in five years and finding himself out of the NFL in 2007, he is having an amazing season. Only in the last two games is he really getting recognition but he has been a big part of this team for awhile now. With the Bucs losing Joey Galloway who carried most of the receiving load for them, Bryant has come in and really stepped up. He has 74 catches and over 1000 yards. No other Tampa player has more than 41 catches or 380 yards. He has run some excellent routes in the last two games.

Statistical Notes – Tampa’s defense game up with its 10^th multiple turnover game of the year. Unfortunately, they have given up 474 yards on the ground in two weeks. Jeff Garcia was thrown 3 interceptions in 309 attempts. Brian Griese has thrown 7 interceptions in 184 attempts. Warrick Dunn went over 1000 total yards for the 11^th time in his 12 year career. John Abraham had his 3^rd 3 sack game of the season bringing his total to 15.5 on the year. Matt Ryan has 3 INT’s in the last two games…the first time he threw an INT in back to back games. Michael Turner has scored in 5 of the last 6 games. Antonio Bryant has 17 catches for 308 yards and 3 TD’s in two games. He is on pace for 84 catches and 1200+ yards.

Bengals over Redskins or “A tale of two seasons.”

The self destruction of the Redskins is amazing. At one point they were 10-2 in regular season play dating back to last season. They had back to back wins on the road against the Eagles and Cowboys, both tough divisional foes. At 6-2, they had The Seahawks at home, Bengals, 49ers, and three home divisional games. Should be able to come up with 4 or 5 wins out of that, right? Now they have to win out to make it to three wins and a 9-7 record.

Amidst all of the problems between Clinton Portis and Jim Zorn, the Redskins desperately needed someone to stand up and become a leader. With the Redskins down by 17 to the lowly Bengals, they finally get it together and engineer a drive that ends with a 10 yard touchdown pass from Jason Campbell to Santana Moss. Moss performed an obviously pre planned touchdown celebration that led to a 15 yard penalty on the kickoff, giving the Bengals the ball on the 45. The Bengals did nothing with the ball on that possession but down by 10 and having lost four of your last five games, why are you celebrating?

Cedric Benson’s 79 yard screen play was a thing of beauty. As soon as Benson caught the ball, three Bengals offensive linemen released and started leading him down the field. Each threw a big block, one running as far as 15 yards downfield to cream a Redskins defender. The play was well executed by Benson, Fitzpatrick, and the O-Line.

On the other side, the Redskins attempt at the goal line was ugly. With a 1^st and goal from the 1, the Redskins chose to pass on first down. Incomplete. On second down, the handed the ball off to fullback Mike Sellers. To this point in the season, Sellers has 4 total carries. He does not get in. Third down, another handoff to Sellers and not only does he not get in, he fumbles and the Bengals recover, touchback. I personally believe his forward progress was stopped and the Redskins should have kept the ball, but the officials disagree. My question is……did the Clinton Portis/Jim Zorn fued have anything to do with the play calling? Portis is a strong back that has scored from inside the four on five occasions this season. Mike Sellers is a fine lead blocker. Why not let the pair do what they do best and hand the ball to Portis four times if necessary? Then again, when Portis did get the chance to win the game on the final drive, he dropped a pass on what likely would have been a touchdown.

Statistical Notes – Cedric Benson went over 100 total yards for the second time as a Bengal. He only went over 100 twice in his entire time as a Bear. Ryan Fitzpatrick is tied for the team lead in Rushing touchdowns with…2. The Redskins turned the ball over 5 times in the last two games, the same amount of turnovers in the first seven. Santana Moss scored for the first time in seven weeks. Chris Cooley has caught at least five balls in 10 games this season.

Texans over Titans or “Titans act like they forgot about ‘Dre”

Andre Johnson is having an absolutely incredible season and yet the Titans decided to play single coverage on him most of the day. Not saying that the Texans don’t have any other weapons but I think I will take my chances with Kevin Walter instead. Free Safety Michael Griffin who is having a pretty good season for the Titans looked lost when it came to Johnson. He continuously was way late for the party, totally out of position, or getting burnt by Johnson. The Guy has caught at least 7 passes in 9 games this season! Cover him!

The Texans are gobbling up tons of yards this season but they have scored a disturbingly low number of points to go along with them (3^rd in the league in offensive yards, 18^th in points scored). They simply can’t get it done in the Red Zone. Out of 4 trips they came away with only 13 points. In those possessions, I noticed they didn’t throw to Owen Daniels at all. If I’m in the Red Zone, I’m trying to get the ball to him on play action or throw a fade to the large, physical Johnson…which seemed to work well the one time they tried it.

I’m starting to worry about Kerry Collins’ ability to win the game for the Titans when the opposition stacks the box and takes Chris Johnson and Lendale white out of the picture. Not just him, but his receiving group. There were some really bad routes run, bad passes thrown, and quite a few drops. I think the image of Algae Crumpler backpeddling and turning this way and that looking for the ball when he was wide open. The first thing is that you need to keep running forward to have a good chance at the ball. Either Algae is lacking in fundamentals or he doesn’t trust his QB to be able to throw the ball far enough, neither is really a good sign.

I really have to question Jeff Fisher’s decision to go for it on 4^th and 3 rather than put in Rob Bironas for a 49 yard field goal. First, Bironas has been money in the last two seasons, hitting 28/33 from 40+. Second, his rationale for not kicking the field goal was the swirling winds. If you are worried about the wind, why throw the ball 30 yards downfield on that play? Collins precision on Sunday was questionable as it is, if the winds were that bad not to have your accurate kicker attempt the figgy, how can you let your inaccurate QB throw it deep?

Statistical Notes – Andre Johnson leads the league in receptions and yards. He’s on pace for 117 catches for 1605. Average game for Johnson with Matt Schaub at the helm: 7.75 catches for 113 yards. Average game for Johnson with Sage Rosenfels at the helm: 6.8 catches for 84 yards. Matt Schaub had 1 TD and 5 INT’s in his first two games, 12 TD’s and 4 INT’s in his next 6. Houston has not dipped below 326 yards of offense since week 1. The Titans turned the ball over 5 times in the last 2 weeks. They turned the ball over 4 times in the previous 7. Titans receptions leader Bo Scaife has only 6 catches for 38 yards the last three games.

Jets over Bills or “Dick Jauron shows off his coaching savvy.”

Leading by 3 with 2:09 on the clock the Jets are facing a 2^nd and 5. Marshawn Lynch had just powered his way to gains of 4,5,3, and 5 yards to give the Bills a first down and get them halfway to another one. Dick Jauron decided to call a pass play. This particular play involved J.P. Losman rolling right and hitting running back Corey Mcintyre for a short gain. Offensive juggernaught Corey Mcintyre has 3 catches (10, -1, 0) in his three year career. The line collapses and Losman finds himself attacked by several Jets defenders when he fumbles the ball and the Jets take it in for a touchdown. Had the Bills simply handed the ball to Marshawn Lynch two straight plays, it’s likely he would have gotten the first down and the Bills would have gotten the win. Instead it’s another loss.

The Jets tackling was abysmal to say the least. Lynch and Fred Jackson required six defenders to take them down on a few plays. The Bills running game which hasn’t been that explosive this season found itself gaining 6.1 yards per carry. Lynch played a very physical game and looked great.

Believe it or not, the Jets second longest run of the game was a scamper by….Brett Favre? On 3^rd and 1 Favre faked a handoff and took off to the left side where there was absolutely nobody in a Bills uniform. The old man galloped his way not only to a first down but a gain of 27 yards! I know that the Bills bought the play fake and all but to allow a 40 year old slow QB to go for 27 yards in inexcuseable. On the other hand, the Jets do have some speed in that backfield in the form of Leon Washington. The Jets spread their wideouts and sent them on deep routes. Washington took a quick inside handoff from Favre and ran untouched for 47 yards. Washington is fast. Thomas Jones is having a fantastic season but the Jets need to find a way to get Washington the ball a bit more.

Statistical Notes – Marshawn Lynch failed to gain 100 total yards in any of the first nine games. He has now broken that barrier 4 times in the last 5 games. J.P. Losman has turned the ball over 13 times in 119 pass plays this season. That is about once every 9 plays. After starting 4-0, the Bills have lost 8 of 10, turning the ball over 24 times in those 8 losses. Thomas Jones has scored in 8 straight and has 15 TD’s on the season. He is on pace for 1600 total yards. Brett Favre has now gone over 3000 yards in 17 straight seasons.

Vikings over Cardinals or “Cardinals redefining One-Dimensional.”

The idea of the Cardinals in the playoffs is seeming less and less appealing with every decent team they play. They are 8-6 but to look a little deeper that is a pretty week 8-6. Their eight wins come from opponents a combined 41-71…..taking away the Cowboys and Dolphins and you have 23-61 for the other six victories. Those are some pretty rotten teams. Their six losses have come from teams a combined 55-28-1.

I think the problem is that they can’t simply play 6 on 6 playground ball against these better teams. Their defense is strong enough to handle the weaker teams and the offense can have their way with them. Against a team like Minnesota their offense ends up on the sidelines for far too long, Kurt Warner cools down and never really gets in sync. The Vikings defense can put in a Nickel (Or Dime) back on every single play and rush Kurt Warner with no consideration for outside containment or a delayed handoff. The Cardinals gave up any pretense of running the ball early on in this game and I think that was the core of a lot of their woes. I know the Cardinals are way better when throwing the ball, but 7 runs out of 61 plays is ridiculous. They need to keep defenses honest.

I thought this game was one of Adrian Peterson’s greatest performances. He was a human wrecking ball that shed tacklers as always, but he seems to be developing patience. On quite a few of his big gains he took his time and picked the hole instead of simply trying to run over defenders. Not that the running over defenders hasn’t worked for him thus far but avoiding them first, running over them later will make him even more dangerous.

What to do about Tarvaris Jackson? Suddenly he is out there making some great throws with Gus Frerotte injured and sitting on the sidelines. Whomever leads this squad is expected to be more of a “Game Manager” type while Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor carry the brunt of the offense. Ideally, you want your game manager to complete a high percentage of passes and have a low amount of turnovers. Frerotte has 15 interceptions in only 301 attempts. He isn’t completing 60% of his passes. Needless to say, he isn’t exactly lighting it up. If Jackson can stay on target with his passes, he is the obvious choice because of the added threat to take off running that he presents. Jackson had a rough opening two games, but I’m starting to wonder if it was more that the Vikings offense started clicking in week 3 as opposed to Gus Frerotte making all the difference.

Statistical Notes – The Vikings have ran the ball only 31 times in their last three losses. They’ve had more than 76 rushing yards just once since week 5, and are throwing on 76% of plays for the season. After throwing 19 TD’s to only 6 INT’s in the first 9 weeks, Warner has 7 of each in the last five games. Neither Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald have topped the 100 yard mark since week 11 when they combined for 23 catches and 337 yards. Steve Breaston is 83 yards away from becoming the third receiver on a team to catch for 1000 yards in a season for the first time since Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley did it in 2004. Adrian Peterson went over 100 rushing yards for the ninth time this season. He is on pace for 1800 rushing yards.

Colts over Lions or “Close in the fourth quarter again? Are the Lions getting better?”

Really, I just wanted to say that the Lions have some hope for the future. Despite each of them putting the ball on the ground in this game Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith really showed that they were good picks and have the potential to be a great duo for years to come. Calvin Johnson is a ridiculous physical specimen. He’s fast, he knows how to use his body on slant routes, and he can just plan out muscle smaller corners when you put the ball near him. The season he is having is even more incredible when you consider how bad the team is and the fact that he’s had five different QB’s in the huddle. Kevin Smith showed a lot of evasiveness on Sunday. On his 25 yard run he made an incredible jump stop, switched directions, and then switches directions again. He can run between the tackles and he can run it on the outside. I really wonder why the Lions were giving the ball to Rudi Johnson earlier in the season when they have a great talent to develop.

I’m starting to favor the Colts to be the AFC representatives in the Super Bowl. This team is starting to have shades of the 2006 version. Both teams were forgotten about amidst the other strong AFC teams. Both teams had some injuries to work through. Both hit rough patches during the season (Near the end for v.2006, start for v.2008). They even have the potential of finishing with the same 12-4 record. Peyton Manning got past his early struggles and his the offense ticking. Dominic Rhodes and Dallas Clark are starting to get more involved in the offense. Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders will be returning to the club in week 16 or 17….. They’ll probably draw the Broncos in the first round and I can’t see them losing that game.

Statistical Notes – Calvin Johnson had his 4^th 100 yard game of the season and has scored in 8 of the last 10 games. He is on pace for 75 catches and 1350 yards. Kevin Smith went over 1000 total yards and is second on the team in receptions. The Lions have allowed 31 or more points nine times this season. The colts have won 7 straight and Peyton Manning has 13 TD’s to only 3 INT’s in that stretch. Reggie Wayne went over 1000 yards for the fifth straight season. Dominic Rhodes now leads the Colts with 8 Touchdowns. Marvin Harrison’s 2 catches were enough to pass Tim Brown to become the #3 all time in receptions. He also holds the record for most receptions in a single season (143).

Steelers over Ravens or “Pittsburgh fans go back to the doctor to up their dose of Valium.”

After last week and another come from behind 4^th quarter win I suggested that Pittsburgh fans would need some sedatives to keep them from having a heart attack during Steelers games. This week they pulled off another fantastic fourth quarter drive to win the game. This was one heck of a physical game and I enjoyed every minute of it. I would watch the Ravens vs. Steelers every week if I could.

My favorite play of the game came in the third quarter on a 3^rd and 8 for Pittsburgh. The Ravens sent five up front to rush Big Ben and Ed Reed came charging up the middle seemingly out of nowhere and wrapped Roethisberger up for the sack. My dad, a fan of aggressive defenses was quiet for a bit and asked “Why don’t the Packers have players like that.” The Packers have some great players in the secondary but Ed Reed is fantastic. The man is always around the ball. The talk this week has been “Would you take Ed Reed or Troy Polamalu?” I think I’d take Polamalu because he’s three years younger but Ed Reed is as good of a safety as I’ve seen in a long time.

Ben Roethisberger is given a lot of credit for the Steelers drives but an often overlooked component of this team is Hines Ward. 6 of Ward’s 8 catches came on the two fourth quarter scoring drives. He makes sure to draw attention to himself after making a play, often causing defenses to watch him more closely and leave others open to make plays. Ward hasn’t put up big numbers for most of his career and doesn’t seem to have any overwhelming physical skills but he is a cagey veteran that runs great routes.

Actually, I do not understand the ruling on the touchdown catch by Santonio Holmes. In my mind, the ball did not break the goal line while in Holmes’ possession. Is it a touchdown if you have two feet down in the end zone but the ball is outside it? It would stand to reason that this is the case as on a punt the player downing the ball cannot be in the end zone when he touches the ball regardless of where the ball is or it is a touchback. The call on the field seemed to say that the ball crossed the line but I can’t believe that. Anyone know the rule?

The Steelers next week will round out one of the most difficult stretches of games imaginable. Without the Bengals interlude, the Steelers will have faced 8 teams with a combined 73-39 record….and if they can beat the Titans they will be the #1 seed throughout the playoffs. That is an impressive accomplishment.

Statistical Notes – Through 14 games, the Steelers have not allowed more than 290 yards by their opponent in any single game. After throwing 8 picks in 3 games, Big Ben has only 1 pick in his last five. They have allowed only four touchdowns in the last 20 quarters of football. The Ravens have turned the ball over as many times in the last 2 weeks (4) as they did the previous 7. Since Week 7, the Ravens are +12 (20-8) in the turnover department. The Ravens had more rushing yards (112) than net passing yards (90). The Ravens had 1^st and 10 at the Steelers 16, 16, and 11. They never made it past the 8 yard line.

Jaguars over Packers or “Cure for ailing offense? Get the Packers on your schedule!”

Oh has this season been rough. Since the win against the Colts, Packers fans have had to endure watching their team take the lead or tie it up only to see the other team march down the field with 3 minutes or less to go in the game five times. The offense comes down and does its job and the defense fails spectacularly. It hurts to watch.

After picking up 17 yards on 3^rd and 18 in the fourth, the Jaguars had a 4^th and 1 and went with an empty backfield. Quarterback draw! I yelled. Garrard is going to run with it! The Packers looked as if they weren’t expecting it, first down. A few plays later, touchdown Jacksonville.

In the Wisconsin sports yak world, people have been calling for the Packers to draft or trade for a running back in the offseason. Coming into this year, I was not at all convinced that Ryan Grant was the answer. His numbers have not been good, but the guy has been running really hard the last 6 or so games. He misses a hole now and then but he is a young runner. I’ve started to like Ryan Grant while the media has turned on him.

I really don’t want to talk about this game anymore. To be fair, I took the homer out of myself and predicted that the Packers would go 7-9 this season. I still think that they will reach that mark, but the way that the games have gone down leave me feeling ill….watching them go 3-9 after a 2-0 start is painful.

Statistical Notes – Greg Jennings has scored in 4 of the last 5 games. Aaron Rodgers is on pace for 3955 passing yards and 30 total touchdowns (26 passing, 4 rushing). The Packers defense has given up at least 311 yards in all but 3 games. The Jaguars put up 20 points for only the second time since the bye week. Maurice Jones-Drew has 38 touchdowns in 45 games. He has as many touchdowns this season as the rest of the Jaguars offense combined. Reggie Haywards 2 sacks puts him as the Jaguars leader…with 4.5. The Packers defense failed to force a turnover for only the second time this season.

Cowboys over Giants or “On the Rise: Cowboys Defense”

While the offense continues to suffer from injuries and internal conflict, the Cowboys defense has rose to the occasion to make a playoff push. They made the day a living hell for Eli Manning, sacking him 8 times, hurrying him most of the day, and forcing him to throw quite a few poor passes. Demarcus Ware has emerged as an absolute monster coming from the outside.

The Giants offense struggled mightily in the face of this onslaught and without Plaxico Burress and Brandon Jacobs. Of course, I almost think that the injury to Brandon Jacobs did more damage because the Giants have reconsidered their offensive scheme. They switched from trying to establish a strong running game to going to a more pass orientated offense. I find this decision questionable with the success that the Cowboys were having getting to Eli Manning. Derrick Ward isn’t the back Bradon Jacobs is, but he performed fairly well…averaging 4.6 yards on his 14 carries.

Watching Marion Barber run this week, it is clear that he still isn’t really ready to go and was wise to not play last week. I guarantee the words that Jerry Jones had about Barber made him get on the field Sunday Night and he ended up not doing the team any favors. Tashard Choice has done a fine job filling in for Barber, so I do not understand what the urgency to get him on the field is. Let him sit until he is healed up and ready to play at a high level again.

The Giants sure can get into the backfield fast themselves. Justin Tuck and Mathais Kiwanuka looked completely unimpeded on their way to crunching Tony Romo in the end zone for a safety. As Romo lay motionless, Cowboys fans cringed with visions of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger dancing in their heads. Thankfully, Romo was allright. The Cowboys found a way to take advantage of the strong outside blitz of the Giants. They started executing delayed handoffs out of the I formation and more so out of the shotgun. The Giants were already coming all out at the corners leaving Choice and Barber some room to run up the middle. The blitzing backfired a few more times as Cowboys receivers found plenty of room to roam short in the middle of the field picking up some key first downs.

Statistical Notes – Tashard Choice has 309 yards of total offense in the last two weeks. Tony Romo has 7 multiple TD games out of 11. He is on pace for 3500 yards and 30 TD’s despite missing 3 games. Terrell Owens has between 31 and 38 yards receiving in 7 of the last 9 games. Maybe if he hadn’t dropped that pass on the first possession…. Roy Williams has only 14 catches for 182 yards as a Cowboy. That’s an expensive decoy. Eli Manning failed to throw for a touchdown for the first time since week 1. He is completed only 50% of his passes the last two weeks. Demarcus Ware has at least a half a sack in 16 of the last 17 games dating back to last season. He has 19 total this year. The Cowboys lead the league with 53 sacks combined.

Panthers over Broncos or “Jam Steve Smith at the Line!”

Steve Smith romped all over the Broncos secondary on Sunday. Time and time again they played off him, time and time again he streaked by them. Steve Smith is not a big guy. He’s deceptively strong but he’s not going to be physically dominating you. Why let him get a running start? On his touchdown reception, the Panthers lined up two wide receivers to the right with Smith on the outside. Somehow, Mushin Muhammed managed to block two Broncos Cornerbacks leaving Smith wide open on the screen. How are you not right up on this guy? If he gets past you, that is what the safety is for! He’s going to get past you anyway so you might as well play him tight!

The Panthers made sure that they kept the Broncos receivers in front of them, giving up short patterns most of the game but denying the long pass. Jay Cutler looked frustrated near the end of the game, unable to find anyone open downfield even when he had the time. Cutler’s 172 yards on 33 attempts was his lowest yards per attempt of the season. During the second half, I was absolutely convinced that the Broncos could not score again, and they did not.

Statistical Notes – Steve Smith had his 7^th 100 yard game of his 12 game season. He also has two 96 yard games. He leads the league with an average of 103 yards per game. Deangelo Williams extended his touchdown streak to 8 games. He has 16 in the season…all in the last 10 games. Jonathon Stewart scored for the third time in two games and is one away from double digits on the year. Jay Cutler has thrown at least one INT in 8 of the last 9 games. Brandon Marshall has gone 11 games without a 100 yard weekend after starting with games of 166 and 155. Tony Schaeffler became the 11^th Bronco to run the ball. He lost a yard on his single carry.

Carnage Guesses on games: Yikes! What a bad week. 8-8. Same as the coin flip. My crazy upset special should have come through if Dick Jauron wasn’t a terrible coach. 137-81 on the season.

Saints over Bears

Falcons over Bucs

Redskins over Bengals

Titans over Texans

Packers over Jaguars

Dolphins over 49ers

Rams over Seahawks

Chargers over Chiefs

Colts over Lions

Cardinals over Vikings

Panthers over Broncos

Patriots over Raiders

Giants over Cowboys

Eagles over Browns

Ravens over Steelers

Crazy Upset pick – Bills over Jets

This is what I have going on for Week 16

Colts over Jaguars

Bengals over Browns

Saints over Lions

Patriots over Cardinals

Steelers over Titans

Dolphins over Chiefs

Bucs over Chargers

Jets over Seahawks

Houston over Raiders

Packers over Bears

Ravens over Cowboys

Falcons over Vikings

Eagles over Redskins

Giants over Panthers

Crazy upset Duo!

Rams over 49ers – Rams starting to play better

Bills over Broncos – Broncos can’t stop the run, Lynch is hot, and the Broncos can’t run. The Bills failed me last week, but not this week.

AFC East:

New York Jets (8-5). Remaining games are Bills, at Seahawks, Dolphins

New England Patriots (8-5). At Raiders, Cardinals, at Bills

Miami Dolphins (8-5). 49ers, at Chiefs, at Jets

Boy, this one is tough to call. The Jets went from looking like the team to beat to…well…losing to the Broncos and 49ers. All of these teams have reasonably easy schedules. I say that Miami wins outright at 11-5 with the others going 10-6.

AFC North:

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3). At Ravens, at Titans, Browns

Baltimore Ravens (9-4). Steelers, at Cowboys, Jaguars

Both teams have the right to claim impressive records considering their schedules. Ouch. Next week will be one physical matchup. I favor the Steelers eve with their inability to protect their QB.

NFC North:

Minnesota Vikings (8-5). AT Cardinals, Falcons, Giants

Chicago Bears (7-6). Saints, Packers, at Texans

I think the Bears have one win left I them and that is about it. I am not convinced that they are a good team. If the Williams duo is suspended though, I could see the Vikings losing at least 2 games. If the Bears can eek out two wins (One being against the Packers) they have a chance depending on what tie breaker is next (They’d be tied head to head, division)

Bears over Jaguars or “Yeah, it’s safe to say that the Jaguars have given up.”

There was talk last week of the Jaguars giving up on their coach and their season. Long time Veteran Fred Taylor came out and said that this was the worst team he had ever played on, and he didn’t mean talent wise. Somewhere, the chemistry of this team broke. It was horribly obvious early on. Receivers were dropping balls, running sloppy routes, secondary looking disinterested. No player not named Maurice Jones-Drew caught a pass for this team In the first half. It was downright ugly. By the way, the quitter label doesn’t apply to Jones-Drew. He plays hard on every down no matter what.

I read an article on the former Jaguars offensive line man Richard Collier. What a brutal, sad, turn of events. The Jaguars should know better than anyone not to sulk because they have lost a few ball games. Yeah, they’ve had a rough year, but I guarantee it’s better than the year their former teammate had. Go out, play hard, enjoy yourself. You never know if the next game you are going to play is your last.

I have often implored the Jaguars to run the ball, but I thought the play calling was on the bizarre side. It seemed like there was no middle ground. Run, Run, Run or Pass, Pass, Pass. Mix it up Del Rio! That’s the point. Try to keep the defense off balance!

The Devin Hester experiment might be progressing a little. He grabbed five balls for 80 yards to lead the team in receptions and yardage. Another player with five catches for this team? Matt Forte. Forte had a pretty rough day on the ground with the exception of breaking one nice run, but he can help his team in many ways. He is a fantastic fit for this team.

Statistical Notes – Maurice Jones-Drew went over 1000 total yards again and is on pace for a 1320 yard, 15 TD season which is nearly as good as his brilliant rookie year. Fred Taylor’s 53 yards wasn’t a supurb outing but it vaults him ahead of O.J. Simpson and Corey Dillon on the all time rushing leaders list. The only players above him are active, Hall of Famers, or Future hall of famers. Hmmmm. David Garrard has 7 more INT’s and 7 fewer TD’s than he had last season. Kyle Orton has as many INT’s in the last two games as he had the entire rest of the season. Matt Forte went over 100 total yards for the 10^th time in 13 games. He is on pace for 1800 yards. He also leads the team in receptions and touchdowns.

Vikings over Lions or “Barely avoiding humiliation.”

With the prospect of losing their two huge defensive tackles, Vikings fans had to breath a sigh of relief after Gosder Cherilus chopped at Jared Allen’s knees and sent Allen to the ground writhing in pain. This was a cheap shot no doubt, but Allen got up and started limping towards the player as if to attack him. His team mates held him back. As much as I respect Allen and understand that he was upset that the player took a shot as his livelihood, two wrongs do not make a right. Allen should not have gotten up (On a hurt knee, nonetheless) and stormed across the field threatening this player. The officials missed throwing a flag on the chop and missed throwing a flag on Allen’s charge.

The Lions moved the ball better than they have…but oh the chances they threw away! 1^st and goal from the 4, Field goal. 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 1 on the Vikings 30, Turnover on downs. 3^rd and 4 on the Vikings 5, Field goal. 4^th and 1 on the Vikings 6, Turnover on downs. You have to convert some of these short yardage downs and gets some points on the board! I do wonder why the Lions just have not gone to saying “Calvin Johnson, just go deep” on every play. That seems like a good strategy.

Gus Frerotte was injured in the game meaning the Vikings get turned back over to….Tarvaris Jackson. Maybe he learned a bit sitting on the sidelines because he actually looked really good. Of course, once Adrian Peterson started to take over in the second half its pretty easy to look good. Then again, Peterson is starting to make me a bit nervous. He put the ball on the ground 3 times again today. He has fumbled quite a bit this season (Luckily most of them have come back to him.) I ran some numbers on his fumbling percentage compared to other top backs early in the year and it was not so good.

Statistical Notes – Adrian Peterson ran for 100+ yards for the 8^th time this season. He’s on pace for nearly 1900 total yards. Jared Allen brought his sack total up to 12.5. Perhaps the time had come for change. Gus Frerotte threw his 12^th interception in only 7 games. Calvin Johnson went over 1000 yards for the year but only has 56 catches. That’s a hefty 18.7 Yards per reception. He has 9 TD catches, 5 of which are from 30+ yards. Kevin Smith was involved in the offense again. Ignoring the turkey day debacle he has yardage totals of 123, 135, 86, and 90 in recent games. The five Lions QB’s have been sacked a total of 45 times already.

Colts over Bengals or “Bengals WIN!!…..time of possession battle. Lose game by 32.”

Ugh. The Bengals are not very good. Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both almost started to prance with glee when Palmer walked onto the field…until they realized it was Jesse. Oh boy. Did I ever mention that the Cowboys gave up something like a 1^st, 3^rd, and 5^th round pick for Roy Williams and probably could have been coaxed into a 1^st, 3^rd, and a 4^th or even better for Chad Johnson? A hard line attitude towards malcontents is good. So is circling the wagons, declaring a rebuilding period, and getting draft picks for them is better.

Forget last week’s apparition that was the Browns game, Peyton Manning is playing well. He’s been sort of forgotten about in our new Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler world…..but he’s coming on strong and is spreading the ball all over the place. The Broncos had better hope Champ Bailey Returns better than ever and can cover about three people because when the Colts walk into Invesco Field at Mile High on wildcard weekend, Manning will be licking his chops. Don’t count this team out of the Super Bowl equation.

Statistical Notes – Peyton Manning has 12 TD’s to only 3 INT’s in the last six games after starting 10 TDs/9INTs. The colts have 5 total turnovers in six games. The Colts defense has 24 sacks. Robert Mathis has 11.5, Dwight Freeney has 9.5. The rest of the team has 3. T.J. Housh has 7 or more catches in 8 of 13 games. Chad Johnson posted his season high of 79 yards. Three previous season highs: 217, 260, and 189. The Bengals offense was dropped behind the line 10 times (5 Sacks, 5 Rushes) in this game. Bengals QB’s have been sacked 48 times this season.

Eagles over Giants or “Not what I was expecting…..”

The Eagles have to be absolutely maddening for their fans and those that bet on games. Look dismal while tying the Bengals and getting blown out by the Ravens, Blow out the Cardinals and beat possibly the best team in the league. Beat the Steelers, lose to the Bears.

Of course, there is the Brian Westbrook effect. He hasn’t really been healthy all season but he’s finally healthy enough to play well. On his first touchdown, the Giants had about 9 players in the box as the Eagles had one wide receiver split out. Westbrook ran into a pile, sideslipped, and took off down for the score. Later In the game, Westbrook was lined up in the backfield with 3 wide. He saw Mathais Kiwanuka come off the corner and chipped him just enough to move him out of Mcnabb’s path. Not necessarily recognized as a receiver In this play, he ran a simple wheel route that Antonio Pierce was way too late to recognize. This system is designed in a way that sets Brian Westbrook up to succeed…no doubt… but he really plays the game “Smart” and does a lot of the little things well.

Of course, I don’t want to make it sound like Westbrook did it all himself. The Eagles offensive line was huge this game. They held the Giants brutal defense to just one sack and gave Mcnabb plenty of time to throw the ball.

After I spent recent weeks praising the Giants unheralded wide receiving corps for performing without Plaxico, they look terrible. Dominik Hixon let an easy touchdown go right through his hands. I’m not saying that Plaxico would have been there and made that catch but it sure makes you wonder if they will miss him in the post season. Even more troubling was Brandon Jacobs trying to limp off the field. Derrick Ward has been fantastic for the Giants this season but I like him in his third down type role while the bruiser works the area between the tackles. Losing a game isn’t a signal to panic but losing your two best offensive players makes things a little shaky.

For all the Eagles did right, those two blocked kicks were ridiculous and the one to end the half was especially costly. How you allow that much penetration on a short kick is beyond me. If the Eagles manage to avoid getting two 32 yard field goal tries blocked, they win 26-7 and aren’t quite as nervous in the end.

Statistical Notes – What a difference in perception those two nightmare games make. Without them Donovann Mcnabb would have 18 touchdowns to only 5 Interceptions, a brilliant season. Not that 19/10 is bad. The Fact is he is on pace for a 4000 yard season, 60% completions, 24 TD’s (+1 rushing), and 12 INT’s with an acceptable 7.1 Yards per attempt. Did I mention he gets booed? After not scoring or having 100 total yards since October 26^th, Brian Westbrook has 333 yards and 6 TD’s in the last two weeks. He’s over 1000 yards for the 5^th straight season and over 10 TD’s for the 3^rd straight. The Giants were held to their lowest (By 60+ yards) total of the season. They’ve been held to under 300 yards only 3 times. Eli Manning didn’t play that well but he did throw a touchdown for the 12^th straight week.

Saints over Falcons or “Are you ready for some offense?”

828 yards. 26 first downs. 54 points. One turnover. Zero sacks. Not much defense going on here. The Saints had their star QB on pace to break Dan Marino’s record, but two running backs stole the show…and neither is named Deuce Mccallister. It looks like they are phasing him out despite the reprieve from the (Seemingly unfair) drug policy suspension. He appears to have been replaced by Pierre Thomas who came up huge. I don’t know what to say about him. He doesn’t look fast, he doesn’t look shifty, he just gets it done. Not only did he provide 109 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns, he came up with a huge 88 yard kick return. Reggie Bush also looked explosive at times in limited carries. The two combined for 218 of the Saints 414 yards and scored 3 touchdowns.

The Falcon’s ground game has been pretty good and despite one good run and a touchdown, Michael Turner was locked down pretty well by the Saints defense. Matt Ryan’s first possession interception was certainly an amateur mistake, telegraphing the pass by staring at his target all the way giving the defense ample time to react. After that miscue, he was once again sparkling. The rapport he has developed with his receiving corps allows him to know what to expect out of them. The longest pass of the game came after Ryan scrambled for a few seconds and simply tossed the ball up towards Roddy White. It wasn’t a particularily good throw but White has come down with quite a few similar passes this season. Later, he threw a semi-fade to the towering Brian Finneran In the side of the end zone. With Finneran having a good five inches on his defender, as long as the ball was up high he would be the only one to have a shot at it.

One thing about Drew Brees and his passing yards is I have to wonder how many yards the ball has actually travelled through the air. Once again we saw plenty of yard after catch out of this crew. All of the significant games came on fairly short passes followed by a run. With as many targets out there as the Saints have, the field gets spread forcing a defender in single coverage to make the tackle or almost certainly give up a large gain.

Statistical Notes – Drew Brees is over 4000 yards for the third straight season. His 230 yard game was a major set back in the chase for Dan Marino, and he would need to average 328 yards per game over the last three games to tie him. Pierre Thomas has 428 yards and 6 touchdowns in the last four games. Reggie Bush’ 80 rushing yards marked his highest total for the season and third highest in his career. Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 207 yards in eight straight games. During that stretch, he has 10 TD’s to only 4 INT’s and has completed 63 percent of his passes or better 6 times. Roddy White had his 7^th 100 yard game of the season and took over as NFL receiving yards leader. He is on pace for 95 catches for 1534 yards.

Titans over Browns “Ken Dorsey led Browns or 1 loss Titans? Hardly a surprise.”

The Titans kept up with their winning formula. Run Chris Johnson right, Run Chris Johnson left, Run Lendale White up the middle. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. It really didn’t matter how many the Browns put in the box, the Titans offensive line is strong enough and Johnson (And to everyone’s surprise) White are shifty enough to find room to run. I remember two gains of 8+ yards, the Titans saw 8 in the box but Johnson was able to get into the secondary untouched. There were probably more.

Of course, the bruising running attack can open up other opportunities. In the first quarter down by 6 the Titans had the ball 4^th and 1 on the Browns’ 28. They lined up in a standard 1 formation with Lendale White back. They ran a play fake left with fullback Ahmard Hall leading the way. Hall acted like he was blocking until he got five yards off the line of scrimmage and took off running. The Browns defenders in the area were looking at Lendale White trying to figure out if he dropped the ball or ate it. By the time they realized they were duped, the fullback was catching the ball and heading for paydirt.

Ken Dorsey picked a bad week to get to start. The Browns offense was anemic, with only 3 plays over 10 yards. The Browns did try a little Josh Cribbs In the backfield, which I think is a great move. Cribbs is an dynamic player. I think this strategy may work better against a less intense defense.

I want to throw something out there a little wild. Everyone has some thoughts on MVP candidates. Clinton Portis, Albert Haynesworth, Kurt Warner, A player from the Giants…. I ask you this. What is the big difference between the 2007 Titans who barely made the playoffs at 10-6 while beating six teams with about 24 wins between them and the 2008 Titans? What is the difference between a team 22^nd in points, 21^st In yards, 17^th in first downs, 20^th in Yards per pass and 21^st in yards per rush and this years team: 6^th in points, 13^th in yards per pass, and 12 in yards per rush? Kerry Collins? Maybe…although Collins should finish the season with a lower completion % and about as many yards as Vince Young did last year (no doubt the turnovers have helped.)

I’m thinking that the Titans Largest need by far on offense was a playmaker. Someone who could break a few big ones a game. A guy they could count on to touch the ball a lot. Chris Johnson resembles that guy to me. With all due respect to Lendale White (And yes, I know he has a longer run this year than Chris Johnson) who shouldered the load fantastically last season and has played his role well this year, I can’t see the Titans having been as successful on offense without him. He doesn’t have eye popping numbers, but I think he’s every bit as valuable to his team as anyone else is to any other team.

Statistical Notes – Chris Johnson had his 4^th 100 yard rushing performance of the year and went over 1000 yards on the season. He is on pace for nearly 1700 total yards. Lendale White went over 100 total yards for the second game In a row and scored his 14^th touchdown which ties him for the league lead. Kerry Collins threw 2 INT’s, twice the number he has thrown in the past 7 games. Braylon Edwards 3 catches vaulted him in front of Kellen Winslow to become the season reception leader for the Browns…with 45 . The Browns have not scored an offensive touchdown in three straight games. They have 21 total points and 611 yards in that span.

Dolphins over Bills or “Bills players conspire to ensure Toronto does not want them.”

The Bills “Home Game” in what could someday be their new permanent home of Toronto was absolutely embarrassing. The Dolphins defense dominated the Bills offense, holding them to a meager 163 yards of total offense. The Bills averaged 24 points per game over the first six games of the season but have put up only six total points in the last two outings. The Dolphins and 49ers are hardly defensive powers, either. And to think! Dick Jauron just signed a huge contract extension.

I don’t know if I like the musical chairs game the Bills are playing with their QB’s. I know Trent Edwards is supposedly “Hurt” but it seems more like a demotion. J.P. Losman has been with this team for five seasons. If they have not seen anything they are sure of by now, I don’t think they will. The season is lost and Edwards barely has a full year’s worth of games under his belt. If you are going to try to develop a quarterback, stick with him and allow some continuity.

The Dolphins offense wasn’t explosive but it got the job done. The Bills pass rush was non-existent and Chad Pennington absolutely thrives in this type of situation. I am not sure there are any quarterbacks in the NFL as ACCURATE as Pennington when given time to sit back in the pocket. That’s not to say he’s a great QB with a huge arm, but he can very much manage a game. I think this team is going to the playoffs.

Statistical Notes – Davone Bess suddenly has 20 catches for 245 yards in the last two games. He’s a small quick receiver with some speed. He’s like Tedd Ginn, only cheaper and better. Ronnie Brown is close to hitting 1000 total yards. Chad Pennington is on pace for 3766 yards, easily his best season in terms of passing yards. The Dolphins had their third turnover free game. In the other Ten games, they had a single turnover in each. Joey Porter racked up 2 more sacks to bring his season total to 16.5. His previous high? 10.5. He has at least one sack in 11 of 13 games. Marshawn Lynch had an excellent three week run snapped by getting only 14 carries. He’s on pace for over 1400 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Josh Reed has gotten more involved, with 5 catches each of the last three games with yardage totals of 50, 58, and 58. How’s that for consistency?

49ers over Jets or “Uhhh, wasn’t Favre supposed to just be a game manager?”

Despite the fact that the Bills had posted a season high 153 rushing yards on the 49ers last week and despite the fact that their team’s resurgence has come not through the air, but on the ground, the Jets coaching staff decided to take the ball from Thomas Jones and put it in the hands of Brett Favre. The Jets called Thomas Jones’ number only 10 times on Sunday despite his averaging a healthy 5.6 yards per carry on those limited touches. Why? Despite early season success, Lavernious Coles and Jerricho Cotchery have not been getting open and have been dropping balls. This is a team that counts on it’s running backs to make plays and they chose to keep the ball away from them. On Sunday, the Jets averaged 4.9 yards per rushing play and 3.6 yards per passing play.

This poor play calling led to only 10 first downs which of course, led to a serious differential in time of possession. The more balanced 49ers offense managed to stay on the field for nearly 40 minutes. Even after Frank Gore went down, the San Fran continued to be committed to the run with Deshon Foster.

The 49ers offensive line played well. As a unit that has given up like 800 sacks the last few seasons I have to say I can remember about 4 occasions out of the 40 pass plays where Shaun Hill was flushed from the pocket. Most of the game he was kept insulted. The schemes even kept Jets blitzers from getting through. On many plays, 49ers receivers were absolutely wide open. Shaun Hill played well, but he was put in a situation where he was almost sure to succeed.

Penalties were a big problem for the Jets on Sunday but one in particular looms large. Explosive Leon Washington weaved through defenders 99 yards on a kick return. This play could have changed the game drastically. Here comes the flag and it’s coming back. Do not hold/block in the back on special teams. You will likely get caught and a potential game breaker can be denied.

Statistical notes – Thomas Jones has now scored in seven straight games. Brett Favre is 43/74 for 384 yards with 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s and 5.2 yards per attempt in the last two games (both losses). Isaac Bruce has 19 catches in the last three games for 262 yards and 2 TDs. Shaun Hill has 10 touchdowns and 4 INT’s. No QB since Jeff Garcia has thrown more Touchdowns than Interceptions for the 49ers.

Patriots over Seahawks or “A Seneca Wallace vs. Matt Cassell Shootout. Decidedly not what was expected on this day.”

With both their veteran QB’s that had career seasons last year sidelined, we were treated to Seneca Wallace against Matt Cassell….and dare I say it was a treat! I know that a lot of people lack faith in Seneca Wallace, no doubt due to the ever growing roll call of failed “Athletic” quarterbacks: Michael Vick, Kordell Stewart, Vince Young, Tarvaris Jackson, Aaron Brooks, Byron Leftwich… Sometimes we forget the ones that have succeed such as Steve Young, Randal Cunningham, Donovan Mcnabb, and Steve Mcnair. Wallace has had the benefit of watching a quarterback with good mechanics and being taught by a coach known for developing passers.

Not that there was much to say about the defense in this game, how come teams seem to completely forget about Wes Welker every game? Out of his 12 receptions, Wes Welker produced 8 first downs….five of them on third down. Defensive coordinators! Make sure someone knows where Wes Welker is on third down! Randy Moss may be the hall of famer but Welker is the one moving the chains for this team!

I give Bill Bellichick a lot of credit for what he has done with his team over the years. No doubt. I do wonder why it appears that he has not learned anything from last season. As the weather got colder, the high flying offense slowed down a bit. It didn’t hurt them so bad because of how strong their team was, but they aren’t nearly as dominant this year as last year. Once again, the weather is getting colder and the Patriots can’t run the ball and are not making much of an effort to do so. Running backs took handoffs a mere 17 times out of 72 plays. They are going to have to mix it up a bit if they expect to beat the Steelers or Titans in the playoffs.

Statistical Notes – Rookie Tight End John Carlson is really turning into a force and has 14 catches for 174 yards and a touchdown the last two games. Seneca Wallace has 7 TD’s and 0 INT’s in four games (120 pass attempts). Wes Welker is on pace to put up better numbers than last season (118 catches to 112 and 1250 yards to 1175). He has gone over 100 yards in four of five games. Randy Moss became the 11^th player in NFL history to gain 13,000 receiving yards.

Steelers over Cowboys or “Steelers fans rush to doctors for Sunday Valium Scripts”

The Steelers cut it close again. As with the Chargers game, they don’t move the ball too well all game and manage to come up with a lot of points in the last few minutes (I still consider the Chargers game to be 18-10…not 11-10). Having put up 3 points on 103 yards late into the third quarter, they manufacture a long drive and find themselves with a 3^rd and goal on the one. Incomplete, loss of three, turnover on downs. They get the ball back down by 10 with 8 minutes to play. 6 minutes and 17 points later, they lead by 7.

The Steelers offense was just ugly in this outing. 13 Points from the offense despite getting the ball on their own forty or better 8 times and on the right side of the fifty 5 times. By the numbers they were 3/16 on third down, 1 for 4 in the red zone, allowed 5 sacks, and averaged only 3.7 yards per offensive play. Luckily, their defense is so utterly dominant that it can keep them I games.

The Cowboys offense was also pretty bad. Tony Romo had a terrible game. His three interceptions were ugly. The first he threw into an area occupied by about five Steelers and two Cowboys. On the second was on a stop and go by Terrell Owens. Tony Romo watched Owens the whole way, making an unconvincing pump fake on the stop and pulling back as he threw the ball. Owens had no chance on it. The final devastating pick came late in the fourth quarter. He was pressured and threw to an area with no Cowboy in sight. Pick Six. Game over. Commence finger pointing. Jerry Jones calling out Marion Barber for not playing on Sunday, Tony Romo yelling at his offensive line, and Terrell Owens yelling at everyone. With the NFC South teams playing so well the Cowboys had best get it together if they expect to make it to the post season.

Statistical Notes – Unheralded running back Terrence Choice had 166 total yards on Sunday. The Cowboys had 289 as a team. In six weeks as a Cowboy, Roy Williams is averaging 2 catches for 30 yards. Terrell Owens has scored in four of the last five games. Demarcus Ware picked up his 16^th sack of the season. Troy Palamalu has an interception in four straight games. Pittsburgh’s defense has forced 10 turnovers in two games. After throwing 8 picks in a three week stretch, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown zero in four games.

Texans over Packers or “Anology. Packers:4^th Quarter Lead. Plaxico: Gun in Sweatpants.”

The Packers really cannot stop anybody. For the fourth time in six weeks they completed melted down at the end of the game. People can talk about Brett Favre until they are blue in the face, but tumbling from the 6^th ranked defense to the 23^rd is what truly has caused their downfall. After a holding penalty brought a 9 yard run to the Texans 13 back to the 32^nd and a 9 yard sack, the Packers were forced to punt with the game tied. They pinned the Texans on their own 3 with 1:49 remaning in regulation. 8 plays and 75 yards later, Kris Brown got onto to the field and finished them off. The Texans even gave the ball away after drives of 79 and 71 yards or the Texans would have routed the Packers.

Early in the game, I was a little dismayed with the Packers play calling. Apparently it was decided that they could beat the Texans deep and Mike Mccarthy had Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball long. This really hasn’t been a successful strategy for the Packers. 8 of the Packers 19 rushes came on 3 drives, leaving the other 9 drives with 11 rushes. What did the three “Run Heavy” drives have in common? They produced the three Packers touchdowns.

With Matt Schaub back the Texans offense is operating on all cylinders. They are putting up Gobs of yardage but not so many points. They do need to avoid the turnovers. They have a good core of offensive skill position players (Shaub when healthy, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Walter.) I believe they can make some noise if they can keep that group together. They are 6-3 after an 0-4 start where they played the Titans, Steelers, and Colts who are a combined 31-7.

Statistical Notes – The Texans had less than 355 yards only once since week 4. Kevin Walter has 445 yards and 3 TD’s in the last five games. Andre Johnson is on pace for 113 catches for 1500 yards. Steve Slaton had his 6^th 100+ total yard game and is on pace for 1600+ total yards and 11 TD’s. The Packers defense has allowed 20 or more first downs 8 times this season. They are 2-6 in those games. Aaron Rodgers has thrown 2 or 3 TD’s in 8 games and for 250+ yards in 6. He is on pace for 3950 yards, 28 TD’s and 13 INT’s. Greg Jennings has 23 catches for 339 yards and 3 TD’s the last four games. Green Bay has only 21 sacks on the year. Aaron Kampmann has 9.5 of them, leaving 11.5 for the rest of the team!

Panthers over Buccanneers or “Deangelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart replace boogey man in Tampa area children’s nightmares.”

I made it to the Super Bowl in my 14 team league. My opponent for the next week was hanging In the balance. My best friend was losing his matchup by 48 points. The scoring system is 1 point for every 10 yards rushing or receiving, 7 points for a touchdown. I went to watch the game with him to give moral support. He has a great team but I knew his season was over with only Antonio Bryant and Deangelo Williams left to play. He would need something like 100 yards and 2 TD’s out of each to win. He was strangely calm about it and kept telling me how he was going to crush me in the Super Bowl next week. Yup. He was in Denial.

He uhm, ended up winning by 16. He was going absolutely berserk. It was a great time. Next week we’ll be mortal enemies, with a ton of pride, my perfect fantasy season (I’m 14-0. Seriously. ) and the greater share of the $1100+ pool on the line. That Monday we were 8 year old kids jumping up and down and yelling at a bar where nobody else was paying attention to the game. It was Fantasy Football at its finest.

Now that the personal aside is over, I’ll get back to the game. What incredible individual efforts out of Jeff Garcia, Bryant, Williams, Steve Smith, and Jonathon Stewart. Although the game ended with a sizeable margin of victory for the Panthers, I think the seeds were sewn early for the Bucs loss. First, after a nine minute drive, Matt Bryant who has missed only 2 field goals inside of 50 yards bounced a 40 yarder off the uprights. On the Bucs next possession, they found themselves with a 1^st and goal at the Panthers 2 yard line. A drop on first down by Alex Smith and a drop on third down by Jeremy Stevens after some brilliant scrambling by Jeff Garcia led to 4^th down and the Bucs took the field goal. I can see why Garcia chose to go to Bryant all day after those plays.

I do wonder why Jon Gruden didn’t commit to running three straight times at that point. The Panthers run defense has been good but not spectacular this season. The Bucs are a better team when running the ball. In the 4 losses this season, they have averaged 42.5 passing plays. Taking away the bizarre Bears game where they called 67 pass plays, They averaged 27.5 passing plays in their 8 victories (32 passing plays with the Bears game). Why mess with what works?

The last time these teams played, the Panthers turned Jake Delhomme “Loose” on the Bucs having him throw 39 times. Deangelo Williams and Stewart ran the ball 17 times for only 39 yards. They’ve been running wild since then and stuck with it. The Bucs defense has been pretty solid this season and they just looked silly. They were blown off the line and then juked or run over by the Panthers duo. As the game wore on so did the Bucs and it seemed every time the Panthers handed off, they were going to gain at least 10 yards.

I thought about this game later in the context of a possible playoff matchup between the Giants and Panthers. I thought for sure the Giants would roll through the playoffs but now I am not sure. The Eagles and Brian Westbrook shredded New York despite not being really strong running the ball recently. The Panthers could be much worse. They are vulnerable to a dominant receiver taking the game over as was demonstrated, but the Giants’ dominant receiver is heading to prison. How large will Plaxico’s problems loom if the Panthers end up playing the Giants?

Statistical Notes – In his first 75 games, Antonio Bryant had 7 100 yard games. In 12 games this season with Tampa, he has 4. Since taking his job back, Jeff Garcia has 8 touchdowns and a single interception in 251 attempts. 10 Buccanneers have an interception. 6 have more than one. Deangelo Williams has now scored in 7 straight games. He has 854 yards and 12 TD’s in that span and is averaging a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry. NOTE: When I said Lendale White was tied for the lead in total touchdowns with 14 I had written it before this game. Williams has 15. Despite missing 2 games to start the season, Steve Smith is fifth in receiving yards with 1075. He has 3 straight 100 yard games and 6 in the last 8. Jake Delhomme is averaging 165 yards per game and has 4 TDs and 6 INTs in the last five games.

Carnage Guesses On games.

Last week I rocked with a 12-4 record. I don’t know why I didn’t pick the Panthers. That puts me at 129-73 on the year. Remember, this is straight up, not against the spread.

Chargers over Raiders

Bears over Jaguars

Vikings over Lions

Packers of Texans

Colts over Bengals

Saints over Falcons

Giants over Eagles

Titans over Browns

Dolphins over Rams

Pats over Seahawks

Cardinals over Rams

Ravens over Redskins

Bucs over Panthers

Crazy Upset Duo: Chiefs over Broncos and 49ers over Jets

Let’s see what we have next week. I look at the lines to declare crazy upset picks (They are five or more point underdogs). I was actually surprised to see the Ravens and even moreso….the COWBOYS as favorites. If I were a gambling man…..I get the Giants and three points? You are kidding! It’s at Dallas and the Giants are coming off a loss and may be without Brandon Jacobs…but the Cowboys are in complete disarray!

Saints over Bears

Falcons over Bucs

Redskins over Bengals

Titans over Texans

Packers over Jaguars

Dolphins over 49ers

Rams over Seahawks

Chargers over Chiefs

Colts over Lions

Cardinals over Vikings

Panthers over Broncos

Patriots over Raiders

Giants over Cowboys

Eagles over Browns

Ravens over Steelers

Crazy Upset pick – Bills over Jets

See you next week when we are 7/8ths done with the season. Yikes!

Ravens over Eagles or “To Fall so far……”

After week 3 of the season I was suitably impressed with them to think that they would make a strong playoff push. They blew out the Rams in week 1 (Ok, I didn’t realize the Rams were THAT bad), held a lead on the road against the Cowboys deep into into the fourth quarter, and physically dominated one of the most physically dominating teams (The Steelers). I can’t believe that the same players that played in those games were on the field today. I didn’t expect the Eagles to hang 50 points on the Ravens or anything, but they didn’t get past midfield until the fourth quarter (Well, except for the kickoff return).

Things were so bad that even when they had 1^st and goal on the 1 yard line I honestly did not believe they would score any points. Even though they had marched the ball 69 yards, I still couldn’t see how they could gain another yard. I didn’t except Ed Reed to take the ball 108 yards the other way though. That was pretty wacky.

I was pretty shocked when Donovan Mcnabb was pulled when the game was only a 5 (or was it 3) point difference. Mcnabb was playing bad, yes, but the running game and his receivers weren’t exactly giving him a lot of support. Mcnabb has played pretty well this season (Ignoring last week’s meltdown) and throwing in an inexperienced quarterback against a fired up Ravens defense doesn’t strike me as sound strategy. To his credit, although visibly distraught, Mcnabb was seen actually cheering his team on during their one decent drive. I’m guessing this is the last year Mcnabb will be in Philly. I’m also guessing that Zigi Wilf is already counting cap space and filling out Gus Frerotte/Travaris Jackson release forms to make way for Mcnabb on his roster.

The Ravens offense did not play too much better but they did manage to turn the ball over 5 fewer times than the Eagles. Of course, when you start with the ball on the preferable side of the 50 six times, decent things are bound to happen. The Ravens defense really ramped it up after the pummeling the Giants gave them last weekend. Just thinking about the two games back to back has to give you a sense of how good the Giants really are.

Statistical Notes – The Eagles have one offensive touchdown in their last nine quarters of play. Donovan Mcnabb had 13 TD’s and 5 INT’s his first 9 games, 1 TD and 5 INT’s the last two. Brian Westbrook put up 209 yards in his first game back from injury in week 8. Since then, he has 260 total yards in four games. After a tough start, Joe Flacco has 9 TD’s and only 2 INT’s in his last six games. Another 33 yards by Leron Mclain would have put Willis Mcgahee as the #3 running back in total yards. Ray Rice is second on the team in receptions….with 27. Ed Reed’s 108 yard interception return broke the record for longest return. The Old record was 106 yard held by…..Ed Reed.

Texans over Browns or “We want Quinn. We want Quinn. No! Wait! We Want Anderson! We Want Anderson!”

Another game with some bad quarterback play. It’s hard to say with a straight face but….Sage Rosenfels was the best QB on the field on Sunday. Both Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson were just terrible. Braylon Edwards may have had his best game of the season, hanging onto over HALF of the balls that hit his hands (Not by a lot though). I have to wonder, with the game never being more than 10 points out of reach and Jamal Lewis and Jerome Harrison being the only players on the Browns offense that resembled professionals, why didn’t Romeo Crennell call a few more running plays? I mean, besides the fact that he’s a terrible Head Coach. He couldn’t have been watching Quinn and Anderson go a combined 13/32 for 145 yards and 3 INT’s and thinking “We’ll get ‘em next possession.

The Texans were lucky that the Browns were so inept, as they kept shooting themselves in the foot. Five turnovers and 383 yards only leads to 16 points? Not good. Penalties In the red zone, penalties killing drives, penalties bringing back a kickoff return, blocked punts. There were a lot of points left on the field by the Texans. For the last two years it has felt like this team was ready to turn the corner but they just can’t. They now have some good players on offense (They really need Matt Schaub to play an entire season), if they could get the defense to play like they did Sunday they could finally get to the playoffs.

Statistical Notes – After three weeks of looking like a mere mortal (only averaging 5 catches for 63 yards), Andre Johnson was back to his “10 Catches, 100+ yard” self, his fifth such game of the season. He’s right back on pace for 120 catches and 1600 yards. Young slasher Steve Slaton is on pace for 1400 total yards. Sage Rosenfels has thrown 14 Interceptions in the last 8 games he played in. The Browns QB’s combined are completing less than 50% of their passes.

Bucs over Lions or “And they Lions go ahead 17-0 they might actually…nevermind.”

Will the misery in Detroit never end? On their second possession, Daunte Culpepper completed 3 of 4 passes for 64 yards. The ensuing possession by the Bucs sees Cadillac Williams get hit…BEHIND the line of scrimmage, FUMBLE, and Detroit scores AGAIN!!!! Actual football being played here. Reality set in, Culpepper went 5/16 for 57 yards with 2 picks the rest of the game. He served some time on the bench while watching drew Stanton go 2/6 with 13 yards before getting hauled off the field with a concussion. With such outstanding Quarterback play, I can see why they only handed Kevin Smith the ball 16 times when he was gaining nearly five yards per carry.

Oddly enough, the Lions defense played pretty well. They brought some pressure on Jeff Garcia, sacking him six times and dropping Bucs runners for a loss four times and causing the Bucs to cough up three fumbles. Hey! I had to try to find SOMETHING good here.

When teams find themselves down by 17 they will often start to panic and throw the playbook out the window and just start chucking the ball downfield. The Bucs remained poised and played their game, running the ball and throwing short routes. Warrick Dunn was the backfield star but I have to tip my hat to Cadillac Williams. He actually made it back onto a Pro football field after tearing his patellar tendon. That would be that big thick feeling tendon under your kneecap. In case you aren’t sure which one I mean, here is a link to a picture that points it out. http://www.eorthopod.com/images/ContentImages/knee/knee_acl_patellar_tendon/knee_acl_patellar_tendon_anatomy03.jpg

That Tendon is so thick and strong that torn ACL’s….a devastating injury…are usually repaired by cutting a strip off the patellar tendon. Not even 14 months after this, Carnell Williams is back on the field. I’d still be riding on one of those scooters for the eldery and begging my wife for another hit from the morphine drip. This guy is playing football.

Even with the Lions being mostly inept, you have to start looking at the Bucs defense and be impressed. They were not all that highly touted coming into the season but they play well as a unit. I’ve noticed recently that very rarely is there one Buccaneer involved in making the tackle. Two or even three are usually running towards the ball carrier. Swarming defense like that is bound to lock down big gains and create turnovers, which they continue to do at an alarming rate.

I am still scratching my head at the benching of Jeff Garcia for Brian Greise. Garcia’s careful play is a good fit for this offense. He makes smart throws and avoids interceptions. He fumbled a few balls away, but he was pressed a reasonably number of times by the Lions defense and did not throw the ball into a bad place.

Statistical Notes –Somehow, Calvin Johnson is still making some plays for this train wreck. He has a touchdown in six of the last seven games. He should go for well over 1000 yards (On pace for 1300). Kevin Smith has 358 total yards in the last three. He is a keeper. Tampa’s D has caused 18 turnovers in it’s 8 wins compared to 2 in its three losses. Warrick Dunn is on pace for nearly 1200 yards. That will give him 1000+ total yards in 11 of 12 NFL seasons. He is now 16^th all time with 15000 yards from scrimmage and could pass Jerome Bettis and Tim Brown as early as next week. Jeff Garcia has thrown one interception in his last 190 attempts.

Bills over Chiefs or “Oh please just make this game stop already!”

The Chiefs kept this game entertaining in the first half, no doubt. Tyler Thigpen looked like the second coming of…I don’t know… Trent Green(?) on the opening drive and a long run by Larry Johnson got them into the end zone and gave them the lead again..but it pretty much all fell apart after that. In a little over 15 minutes of play, the Chiefs saw their 3 point lead turn into a 23 point deficit. They went through a string of possessions that looked like this: Fumble, Interception, Field Goal, Interception, Fumble, Fumble. Plain and simply…ugly.

I know that the Chiefs probably owe it to their fans to try to field the best team possible in an attempt to win games. Still, at 1-9 I think I’d sit Larry Johnson right on the bench and let him watch Jamaal Charles be developed and Tony Gonzales act like a professional. Letting a guy who does not respect team authority and apparently doesn’t respect women is not the best guy to have in a locker room full of young players.

The Bills managed to stop the bleeding and Trent Edwards finally put in a solid days work, but I can’t get too excited by their play. This game doesn’t prove much. At 6-5 they are still very much alive for a playoff spot and get a crack at each of the division foes yet…two of them at home. They seem to have figured out a way to correctly utilize Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson recently, which could take some of the pressure of Edwards. The defense is still pretty suspect and despite the bumbling fumbling act, the Chiefs actually put up 462 yards and 31 points. I don’t really expect Brett Favre, Chad Pennington, Jay Cutler, and Matt Cassell to make the same types of mistakes that Tyler Thigpen did.

Statistical Notes – Marshawn Lynch has gone over 100 total yards only three times this year…but twice in the last two weeks. The Bills seem to be at their best when he gets 20 touches in a game. What I like most? 15 receptions in the last two weeks. Trent Edwards threw zero interceptions after throwing 8 in the previous four games. Tony Gonzalez has 25 catches for 265 yards and 3 TD’s in the last three games. He’s back in place as the king of tight ends and is on pace for another ho-hum 96 catch, 1000 yard Season. His ten catch performance put him at #9 on the all time receptions leader list. Pretty impressive for a “Tight End”.

Bad Divisions in football

Just to illustrate which divisions are bad more graphically, I wanted to take divisional games out of the picture and give you records outside of them.

NFC East: 22-7

NFC South 22-8

AFC East: 19-9

AFC South 17-11

AFC North: 12-15

AFC West: 7-23

NFC North: 9-19

NFC West 6-22

Bears over Rams or “How much bad football can a person take in one day?”

The Bears went on the road and romped all over a bunch of bums off the St. Louis streets Incognito as Pro football players. Get it? Haha. Sorry, trying to say SOMETHING about this game.

Trent Green didn’t really look too thrilled about having to haul his 38 year old body out to stand behind three backup linemen after watching Marc Bulger get absolutely leveled by Adewale Ogunleye. For a moment I thought Marc Bulger was actually dead. In all, the Rams allowed 5 sacks and were tackled for a loss on SEVEN of only nineteen rushing plays. The return game gave the Rams a little spark and possession of the ball on the Bears’ 23 yard line. One play later the Rams find themselves on the 12 yard line. Four plays later? A missed field goal from the 22. Ugh.

I listened to Chicago radio Monday morning and not even Chicago fans were excited by this. Sunday was one of those games where you watch to make sure your team doesn’t somehow embarrass itself and lose to a team playing really poorly without half its offensive line and star running back. If anything though, they should be pleased with Matt Forte. He had a lot of open space but he doesn’t appear to be hitting the “Rookie Wall” like so many young runners.

I do have to question the wisdom of devoting so much of Devin Hester’s time to offense. They are trying as hard as possible to figure out a way to make him a viable wide receiver. In the meantime, he has done nothing on the return game. Would a team normally trade one of the most dynamic return men ever for a mediocre at best wide out?

Statistical Notes – Matt Forte went over 100 total yards for the fourth game in a row and eighth time this season. He’s on pace for an 1800 total yard season. He was an absolute steal for a second round back. Rex Grossman and Ryan Griese threw 41 interceptions in 2006 and 2007. Kyle Orton has four this season and hasn’t thrown once since week 4. The Rams have turned the ball over 15 times in four games. They have four offensive touchdowns in their last five games. Tory Holt had 45 100 yard games in his first nine seasons, an average of five per year. He had a season high 84 yards this Sunday and hasn’t had a 100 yard outing since December 2nd of last year.

Jets over Titans or “Who are Chris Johnson and Lendale White?”

If you were just introduced to the Titans team this week you probably wouldn’t have a clue. Going into this week, the Titans had thrown the ball 293 times and ran the ball 335 times. This weekend saw them facing a pretty decent run defense of the Jets that intended to make Kerry Collins beat them instead and Johnson and White had a total of 11 carries. Actually, I was shocked at how quickly the Titans abandoned the run. Their early carries were of 0, 3, 4, -1, 24, and 3 yards. I consider the 4 and 24 yard gains to be “Successes”, the 4 yard gains to be neutral, and the 0 and -1 to be failures. 2 of each. Not excellent, but not a disaster.

The Jets offensive line is really starting to come together. Of course, you would hope so with four first round picks starting (Nick Mangold, Alan Faneca, Damien Woody, and D’Brickashaw Furegeson) up front. They really pushed around the frightening Titans front seven. On Leon Washington’s long touchdown run, the five linemen and a tight end were all engage in simple man to man blocking and broke the hole open so wide that nobody laid a finger on Leon. Thomas Jones didn’t break a bigger run until late in the game, but he plugged away for quite a few 5+ yard gains.

Of course, with a running attack to worry about, Brett Favre ends up with plenty of time to sit back and choose his targets. With the exception of the Haynesworth/Vanden Bosch sandwich that I thought had killed poor old Brett, the Titans pass rush was a non factor as Favre picked the defense apart with a great short passing game. Between the running and the dink/dunk passing routine, the Jets kept their offense on the field for over 40 minutes and grabbed 28 first downs.

Let me be clear about this. The Jets did beat the Titans convincingly but this in no way signals the beginning of the end for the Titans. I think Jeff Fischer has been gaining confidence in Kerry Collins ability to win games for this team but when he reviews the game tape he’ll realize that he allowed the Jets to take him out of his game plan. This will be a wakeup call and I see the Titans pounding the ball all day long against the Lions.

Statistical Notes – Brett Favre set another NFL record, this one for winning in 32 different stadiums. That’s a pretty wild feat. Since earning the title “Game Manager”, Favre has completed 77 percent of his passes and thrown 5 TD’s to 1 INT. Thomas Jones has 789 yards and 10 TD’s in the last 7 games. Leon Washington has 4 TD’s (2 Rushing, 1 Receiving, 1 Kick Return) in the last two games. Chris Johnson has only 167 yards and 0 TD’s in the last three games. Lendale white? 71 yards and 1 TD. The Titans have given up 332 rushing yards in the last two games.

Patriots over Dolphins or “Matt Cassell Makes Statement: SHOW ME THE MONEY!”

Tom Brady couldn’t have picked a better time to get hurt as far as Matt Cassel is concerned. Prior to this season, Cassel was probably content with his decent paycheck and career collegiate/professional backup role. He’s staring at a HUGE pay day now when he hits the free agent market in the offseason. In a mere 11 games he went from a guy that looked uncomfortable and missed his targets by 5 yards to a back to back 400 yard game performer. I would like this time to once again laugh at the many media pundits who raved about how much smarter the Cowboys were than the Patriots for having Brad Johnson as a backup plan instead of a loser like Matt Cassel.

I’ve got to give Randy Moss a lot of credit. I think a lot of people were expecting him to give up and become old sulking Randy when Tom Brady went down. He’s been on the sidelines clapping for the team and being patient with the new quarterback. I know that this is just what he SHOULD do, but earlier in his career he may not have. It really shows that he has matured in the last few years. He wasn’t a big part of the last 400 yard outing (catching three balls for 26 yards) but with the Dolphins “Disrespecting him” by putting single coverage on him. He made some great catches. Of course, you can’t forget about his counterpart at wide receiver either, who seems to always be open.

Every game I watch I realize how much Kevin Faulk means to the Patriots. He’s not a big numbers guy, he just makes big plays.

Chad Pennington had himself a pretty good day too. With the Patriots ready for the wildcat and Pennington throwing to guys that not even fantasy players can name, he kept the game a lot more interesting than the 20 point loss suggests. The sweetest play of the game had to be the Dolphins last touchdown which put them momentarily within three. The Dolphins receivers all dragged towards the right leaving Ricky Williams alone with a linebacker. Williams flared out towards the sidelines and cut up field and caught the ball in the back of the end zone. He sold the route great and Pennington threw a perfect pass.

The Dolphins really could have used this win. It would have put them at 7 wins with three very winnable games. They still have a shot at ten wins if they can beat the three teams with 5 wins between them and knock off either the Bills or Jets on the road.

Statistical Notes – Wes Welker continues to be the model for consistency and has three straight 100 yard games and 25 catches in that span. Matt Cassel has 1049 passing yards, 98 rushing yards, and 8 touchdowns (6 passing, 2 rushing) in the last three games. Randy Moss passed his old team mate Cris Carter to become #3 on the all time receiving touchdowns list. It took Carter 234 games to reach his total. It’s only taken Moss 165. Chad Pennington has 11 touchdown passes, one fewer than three Dolphins QB’s had all of last season. Jerry Porter managed to get to the quarterback again, making it 14.5 sacks on the season. He’s been credited with at least half a sack every game except week 2.

Vikings over Jaguars or “How many mistakes can one team make?”

It seems like a lifetime ago since the Jags were a dark horse Super Bowl pick and they reached a new low this week. In front of a home crowd, the Jaguars lost three fumbles, were picked off twice, were penalized 8 times for 80 yards, and missed two fields goals. They let a team that had 226 yards of offense put 30 point on the board. Their once vaunted ground game was held to 35 yards. I’d say they handed the Vikings this win on a silver platter but we know they probably would have dropped the platter.

The Vikings really didn’t even have to play that well. The passing game was uninspiring. Adrian Peterson gained some yards, made some people look dumb, scored a touchdown. The usual. The coolest run of the day came from Chester Taylor. Spinning around and doubling back to go the other direction for a score was sweet. I’m pretty annoyed with Ryan Longwell though. This guy had a hard time kicking the ball into the end zone on kickoffs. Now he’s 4/4 from 50+ this year for the hated Vikings?

Statistical Notes – Adrian Peterson has failed to gain 100 yards total for the second game in a row! A Slump! He’s only on pace for 1860 yards and 12 touchdowns or something. After averaging 100 yards and a TD over a four game span, Bernard Berrian has 4 catches for 52 yards in two games. The usually careful Jaguars has as many turnovers this week (5) as they did the previous seven weeks. Fred Taylor finished last season with five straight 100 yard rushing games. He has one this entire season. The Jaguars have two 100 yard receiving performances this season, and one of them was Maurice Jones-Drew this week! Jones-Drew leads the team in Touchdowns, total yards, rushing yards, and is second in receptions. The Jaguars have 19 or fewer points 6 times this season. They only had four such performances last year and zero after week 6.

Raiders over Broncos or “Worst….Division…..Ever.”

The Broncos were playing at home against a team that is more of a laughing stock than the Detriot Lions are now….and that is saying something. They had a chance to have their lead increase to an insurmountable 3 games in the division. They looked….very very vulnerable. They simply cannot stop the run, and without Champ Bailey, aren’t exactly stopping the pass either. Jamarcus Russell has looked terrible in a lot of games this year and came out with plenty of time to throw the ball and actually made plays. Ashley Lelie, whom I didn’t even realize was still in the league, lit up his former team mates. It was just an ugly defensive performance.

The offense….not much better. It’s hard to believe this was the same team that started out the season 3-0 with 114 points scored. Jay Cutler lacks the accuracy he did earlier and quite frankly, his receiving group doesn’t seem like it can get open. They only need to win two games to clinch this division, but I can’t see them making too much noise in the playoffs. If the Raiders can do this to them at home, imagine what the Colts or Patriots could do.

Statistical Notes – The Raiders scored as many points this week as they had the previous four weeks. Who leads the Raiders in total offense? Stud rookie Run-DMC? Highly paid free agent Javon Walker? Nope. It’s Justin Fargus. Tight End Zach Miller leads the team in receptions with 32. His numbers aren’t huge but if you look down his game long he has been consistent throughout. Prior to this week, no Raider had more than one Touchdown. Now Darren Mcfadden and Ashley Lelie have 3 and 2 respectively. Jay Cutler failed to throw a touchdown for the first time this season. The Broncos D has created three turnovers in the last five games and only ten on the season. Brandon Marshall isn’t putting up huge numbers every week (He has not had 100 yards since week 3) but he has gone below 70 receiving yards only 4 times in the last 22 games.

Cowboys over 49ers or “Maybe T.O. isn’t over the hill yet….”

Owens expressed his frustration over the lack of (catchable) balls being thrown his way during an interview with Deion Sanders. Needing a win pretty badly, the message was clear. “Give me the ball so we can win.” Luckily, the 49ers were more than happy to oblige. Owens had been in the worst slump of his career since week 3 against the Packers. 0 100 yard games, only 2 games of more than 40 yards, only three touchdowns. A lot of media types say that the Redskins or Bengals came up with the “Blueprint” to stopping Terrell Owens, but it was indeed my Packers who started the streak of playing a corner up on T.O with a safety shadowing him.

The 49ers come out with Nate Clements playing man defense on Owens, 10 yards off the line of scrimmage? Why does this even seem remotely like a good idea? Nate Clements was made to look like a pathetic little insect trying to keep up with/tackle T.O. The 49ers $60 Million man did about as well as I could have done.

Really, the return of Tony Romo had a lot to do with this, of course. Yes, Romo returned last week but you could tell his finger wasn’t ready for it. He was missing wildly on passes and didn’t have the zip on them. He didn’t look perfect yet this week, but he looked better. I’d expect him to be back to form by Thursday.

The Cowboys defense looked to be back on track, too. They completed dominated the middle of the game and took Frank Gore out of the picture. The End numbers (Points and yards) do not look so grim for the 49ers but almost half the yards and over half the points came in 4^th quarter garbage time drives. Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, J.T. O’Sullivan, Trent Dilfer…it doesn’t matter. The fact is that until the 49ers can figure out a way to defend their quarterback, they aren’t getting any better. Their QB’s have been sacked 95 times In the last 27 games. They’ve been rushed and hit many more times than that.

Statistical Notes – Isaac Bruce has his second 100 yard game of the season. He’s still a joy to watch. Tony Romo has three touchdown passes in 5 of his 8 games this season, and 1 in each of the other three. He has thrown at least one touchdown in 38 of his 42 career games. Marion Barber went over 100 total yards for the eighth time in 11 games. He is on pace for 1731 total yards. Oddly enough, the exact same statements apply to Frank Gore.

Falcons over Panthers or “Mental Note: watch for Michael Turner in the red zone.”

Just when I started believing in the Panthers they have two weak victories against bad teams and get taken down by the Falcons. The Panthers front seven was looking solid but they did not get it done against Atlanta. Matt Ryan was given time to sit back and pick his targets and they couldn’t keep Turner out of the end zone.

The pivotal play of the game, and perhaps the Falcons season came on 4^th and goal from the one in the fourth with the Falcons up three. Instead of taking the almost sure three points they put the game in the hands of Turner and their offensive line. The team responded to the challenge, went up 10 and never looked back.

Offensively, the difference I see between these two teams is this. The Falcons have their two main playmakers in Michael Turner and Roddy White but when needed others will come up huge for them. Jerious Norwood has made some great plays, Michael Jenkins has some big catches, and this week Harry Douglas (An unknown rookie wideout) came up with some huge catches, a big punt return for a score, and a touchdown for a score.

The Panthers looked like this earlier in the season. Dante Rosario was the unlikely hero of week 1, Jonathan Stewart was running neck and neck with Deangelo Williams, and they survived for two games easily without Steve Smith as Mushin Muhammed really stepped up into his role. With the exception of the Lions game, Stewart is clearly getting fewer carries and doing less with them than Williams, Mushin had a Touchdown this week but his production has really dropped, and it’s really hard to name another Panthers offensive threat. Not saying that Steve Smith and Deangelo Williams aren’t enough, but a bad game or two by either one is likely to cost the Panthers.

One thing is certain, the battle for the NFC South is suddenly very interesting. There are five divisional games left and any of these teams is capable of beating the other. I suspect a wildcard spot (Or two) will come out of this division, but two decent teams could end up home for the playoffs.

Statistical Notes – Deangelo Williams has been out of control lately, putting up four straight 100 yard rushing performances on a bloated 6.8 yards per carry. He also has five touchdowns to show for the yards. Ignoring for a second that strange game against the Raiders, Steve Smith is averaging 6 catches and 100 yards per game. I’ve mentioned people were concerned about Michael Turner being able to carry a full load. He has 22+ carries in 8 of 11 games and looks to be getting stronger. He has 291 yards and six touchdowns in the last three games. The Falcons are 6-0 when Matt Ryan does not throw an interception, 1-3 when he does. John Abraham now has 12 sacks, one away from his career best.

Colts over Bolts or “7-4 and out of the division race. 4-7 and still in it. Uhhhhh….”

At 7-4, the Colts don’t look like they have a prayer of catching the Titans barring a complete meltdown. The Chargers are now 4-7 and only two games behind the lead. Did I mention before that the AFC West is not that good?

Actually, the Chargers are not as bad as their record indicates. Their last minute meltdowns must be getting tiring though. First the Panthers beat them on a last second catch in the back of the end zone, the Broncos score after some controversy, go for two, and beat them. The hold a 10-8 lead on the Steelers until the last few seconds, and now Peyton Manning gets the Colts 37 yards in a minute and a half so Adam Vinatieri can stick the dagger in their hearts. I think they had a lead on the Bills in the fourth quarter, too. Ouch.

I’m amazed at the tendency of the Media to call them “Ladainian Tomlinson and the Chargers”. LT has been a ridiculously good player, no doubt, and he hasn’t been bad this season but he isn’t what he was. He just barely broke the 4.0 YPC mark for the fourth time this season and is averaging 3.8 on the year. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers has become the emotional leader of the team and the guy that ends up holding the ball with the game on the line. The Chargers could probably do about as well without LT at this point, the same cannot be said for Rivers.

Peyton Manning and company seem to be humming along nicely. My wife took notice of it and in a gutsy move pulled “Must start” (According to several fantasy sites) Bernard Berrian out of her fantasy lineup and inserted…Anthony Gonzlaes. I seriously taunted her about it before the games played out, too. That stunt gave her two wins on the day and she clinched two division titles. Who said girls can’t play fantasy football? Anyway, Manning and his offense has suddenly started clicking and have won four in a row after a pretty dull 3-4 start. With the Browns, Bengals, and Lions looming around the corner it’s looking like we won’t have a non-Colts playoff year after all. Remember what happened the last time the Colts were not playing as well as anticipated…..

Statistical notes – After opening with as many INT’s as TD’s in the first four games, Manning has adjusted and has a more usual 14 TD’s to 5 INT’s in the last 7. Joseph Addai seems to be getting back on track with 254 yards and 2 TDs in the last two games. Philip Rivers has thrown at least one touchdown in 17 of the last 18 games and leads the league in TD passes (23), QB Rating (103.3) and yards per attempt (8.6). Ladainian Tomlinson has only 2 touchdowns in the last 7 games.

Carnage Guesses on Games

Last Week I had 11-5. That brings me to 108-62 on the year. I’m getting better.

Pittsburgh over Cincy

Raves over Eagles

Texans over Browns

Cowboys over 49ers

Bucs over Lions

Vikings over Jags

Bills over Chiefs

Dolphins over Patriots

Bears over Rams

Titans over Jets

Broncos over Raiders

Panthers over Atlanta

Giants over Cardinals

Redskins over Seahawks

Colts over Chargers

Packers over Saints

Let’s see what this week holds.

Titans over Lions

Cowboys over Seahawks

Cardinals over Eagles

Packers over Panthers

Bills over 49ers

Ravens over Cincy

Dolphins over Rams

Colts over Browns

Chargers over falcons

Jets over Broncos

Steelers over Patriots

Chiefs over Raiders

Vikings over Bears

Texans over Jaguars

Crazy upset pick duo! I’m taking the Redskins at home over the Giants and the Saints going into Tampa.

See you next week! Happy Thanksgiving!

Jets over Bills or “Jets are in First place! Wait, Bills are in First! Wait, Patriots are in first!”

The Jets needed this win to keep pace with the Jets and Patriots and win they did, creating a three team log jam for first place with the Dolphins only one game behind. Must be all about Brett Favre, right? Not quite. The Jets defense has been surprisingly good, at least their run stoppers and pass rushers. Ignoring their game against the Cardinals where they gave up a lot of “Garbage time” yardage with Kurt Warner chucking the ball all over the field, they are giving up 290 yards per game.

The Jets absolutely smothered Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson all game long and forced the Bills to throw the ball a lot. Trent Edwards, who has been pretty reasonably efficient and benefits from good protection, had a pretty rough day. The Jets set the tone with a huge sack and fumble recovery deep in the Bills territory and a huge interception for a touchdown on the next drive.

The Bills did move the ball but they just couldn’t get it done near the end zone. Three Bills drives that took over 20 minutes, went for 38 plays, and covered 174 yards resulted in….0 points. I usually applaud going for it on fourth and 1, but will the failure of the Bills to make any sort of room on the line of scrimmage for the backs I thought the Bills should have kicked the field goal in the 2^nd when they got down to the Jets 8 yard line. This team is young and is thus probably more susceptible to the ebb and flow of momentum. While picking up the first down may have ignited them, coming up with nothing on their second long drive is demoralizing.

Brett Favre was a great quarterback and he is still better than average. Watching him, Lavernious Coles and Jerricho Cotchery light it up is a lot of fun when it’s working but I feel they have to continue to try to get the ball into the hands of their two running backs. Favre was terrible in the Red Zone, completing only 1/8 passes for -3 yards. Thomas Jones is quietly having a big season and Leon Washington is absolutely explosive. He was stuffed up pretty good on the ground game this week, but his one long catch and big punt return really highlighted how fast he really is.

Statistical Notes – Brett Favre has thrown an INT in seven straight games. Since his monster day against the Cardinals, he has only 3 TD’s to 8 INT’s! Thomas Jones has 395 yards and 5 TD’s in his last 4 games. He is averaging 4.5 YPC, his best season since his role as a backup with the Bucs in 2003. The Jets have 28 sacks this year…with 13 different defenders getting a piece of the QB! Trent Edwards threw two INT’s in the first six games and three in the last 2 games. The two teams combined for a mere 2 touchdowns in 10 red zone trips and were 2 for 5 inside the 10.

Bears over Lions or “NOOOOO! Not another blown 2^nd half lead!”

Somehow, the Lions have managed to go up on the Vikings 10-2, 10-6 on the Redskins, and 23-13 on the Bears with less than a half of football to play and blew them all…this one of course hurting the worst. After an incredible stretch where they scored three touchdowns and a field goal in the second quarter, they came out fired up and went Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt, Punt, Punt, Fumble in the second half. They probably could have let Jason Hanson, who kicked a 52 yard field goal earlier in the game try to tie it up with a 50 yarder at the end of the game….had Hanson not fallen down on a PAT attempt. Ugh. Always something with these Lions. At least for the first time this season they had the best quarterback on the field for the second half of play.

The news isn’t as bad as it could have been for the Bears, but it’s bad enough. Kyle Orton is going to miss at least a month. The day Bears fans have dreaded is here…Rex Grossman is back under center. Even though as a Packers fan hating the Bears is embedded in my genome I feel bad that Orton went down. Orton had a rough rookie year and sat on the sidelines watching Grossman and Brian Greise struggle for two seasons. He sat back, kept his mouth shut and learned the game. Finally the team gets handed back over to him and he was playing very well. Now he’s back on the sidelines watching Rex.

Rex Grossman threw for a touchdown and ran for one but he really didn’t look very good. The offense in the second half was all about Matt Forte who is looking more and more impressive as the season goes on. I still think he needs to get down a little bit more but I do have to admit watching him standing almost fully upright and barreling down on you as to be a tad intimidating for secondary players and smaller linebackers. He looks bigger than his listed 6’1 220.

Speaking of big, Charles Tillman guarding Calvin Johnson looked pretty funny. The end zone ball that Dan Ovlosky threw to Johnson was really high in the air when he grabbed it. I actually thought that he was going to come down with the end of the game hail mary pass, too. Calvin Johnson is definitely something positive that came out of the Matt Millen era. If the Lions can get better on the offensive line and address their QB situation (Mind you I’m NOT ruling Orvlosky out. He’s a young guy who has played reasonably well given the team and his lack of experience) he’ll be a great one.

Statistical Notes – Calvin Johnson has scored in four straight games. He is on pace for 1400 yards and 12 TD’s. He’s a top 5 fantasy WR in next season’s draft. The Lions gave up only 320 yards of offense! That gives them 3 games with less than 400 yards allowed and was 100 yards under their average. Kyle Orton completed 60% of his passes in 7 out of the 8 games and was gaining 7.1 yards per attempt. Rex Grossman completed 47% of his passes and gained 3.2 yards per attempt on Sunday. Matt Forte went for over 100 total yards for the fifth time this season. He is on pace for a stunning 1700 total yards.

Bengals over Jaguars or “Jags playoff dreams left in a Cedric Benson and Ryan Fitzpatrick induced cloud of dust.”

The Jaguars were a chic pick to go deep into the playoffs and perhaps even represent the AFC in the Super Bowl (My dad….one of the most football savvy people I know was one of them. Nice pick dad.) Losing to an 0-8 team is never a good sign.

Of course like any suitable horrific team, the Bengals tried to squander their 18 point lead in the fourth quarter. After watching the Jaguars mount their longest drive of the game to that point (54 yards) and get a field goal out of it, the Bengals muff a deep kickoff and the Jaguars take it in for seven points to cut the lead to one touchdown plus a two point conversion. Two possessions later David Garrard (Who is 16/30 for 162 yards at this point) marches his team straight down the field, completing 7/8 passes and Maurice Jones-Drew hammers it in. The Jaguars call a pass for the two point try and Garrard tries to force the ball into the only doubled covered receiver, Jerry Porter.

The Jaguars defense, who have played reasonably well this season, looked awful in the first two drives by the Bengals. Rashean Mathis looked lost on the two touchdowns to Chad Johnson. Their containment of Ryan Fitzpatrick…not exactly a speed demon..broke down horribly on containment and watched him scramble twice on third down for large gains. The Bengals have been averaging 77 yards per game and between Bears castoff Cedric Benson and Fitzpatrick’s efforts, the Jags allowed 160 yards on the ground.

I fully expected the tables to be turned and the Jaguars to romp all over the Bengals. I was surprised at the inability of the Jaguars to really run the football in this game. I didn’t even think that the box was all that stacked but I mostly caught second half action. Yes, I realize they were down 18 points, but they had abandoned the running game by the time David Garrard threw the interception to make it a three score contest. Teams think they need to throw to erase big deficits. Note the Panthers comeback last week which was very balanced. At any rate, the Jaguars are one of only two teams that failed to run for at least 109 yards on the Bengals.

MVP…MVP – If the Jaguars would have caught up, you would have had to look at Josh Scobee hitting another 50+ yard field goal near the end of the first half. He is 4/4 from 50+ and 3/3 from 40+. He has converted a field goal of at least 46 yards in 6/8 games this season. It has to be nice to have a kicker that can hit from that deep.

Statistical Notes – Cedric Benson hit the 100 yard mark for only the third time in his career. He had only two 100 yard games out of 35 with the Bears. T.J. Houshmandzedeh has 7 catches or more in the last five games. He has 61 on the season putting him on pace for 108. Not bad, considering the company he keeps. David Garrard leads the team in rushing yards per carry at 4.3. He has rushed for more yards than one of Fred Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew in five of the eight games. Jones-Drew has scored in five of the last seven games.

My fantasy team or “This may bore you to tears but I feel like talking about it.”

Yeah, you probably don’t care about my fantasy team but after missing the playoffs in the three leagues I was in last year I need to brag about this year…while I can. I posted this now because I grabbed Cedric Benson off the waiver wire a few weeks ago in my 14 team league, while most of the league laughed at me. I needed a flex player this week and my choices didn’t look so great…..Benson, Torry Holt, Bobby Engram, Leon Washington, or Bobby Wade. Benson outscored Holt by five points, and I won the game by three. YaY me. I clinched a playoff spot and have a 9-0 record. The team is pretty ugly…..Kurt Warner, Matt Leinert, Chad Pennington, Frank Gore, MoJo, Lendale White, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Todd Heap/Scrub Waiver Tight End of the week, and the Bucs defense round out my lineup. Thank the football gods for giving me Lendale White, Bucs, and Warner all past the 8^th round. Somehow, this team leads my league in scoring.

On the flipside, the team I thought would dominate has lost 4 out of 5 to fall to 4-5. It’s a ten team that sends six to the playoffs so it isn’t over for me. I have Warner, Trent Edwards, Leinert, Brian Westbrook, Marshawn Lynch, Thomas Jones, Michael Pittman, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker, Matt Jones, Donald Driver, Jason Witten, and the Ravens defense. I am second in that league in scoring. I think my 9-0 team is a one and done in the playoffs, but I think my 4-5 is a contender!

Ravens over Browns or “So…you were up by 14 with only 18 minutes left and you LOST by 10??????”

The Browns were successful early in the game by mixing up the run and throwing the ball both short and downfield. With a 14 point lead, they went totally conservative, looking like it was game over and putting up a half hearted effort to run out the clock. The result? Five consecutive three and outs to follow up four consecutive scores. Run, Run, Pass. Run, Run, Pass. Their play calling was transparent and they soon found themselves looking up at the Ravens once again.

It’s time for the Brady Quinn Era. Derek Anderson was fun for last season but he really isn’t nearly accurate enough to hold back the QB drafted as the future of your franchise and makes some really poor decisions under pressure. The interception return that put the game away for the Browns just accentuates that. Anderson had a Ravens defender coming at him hard and was about to get sacked. Instead of covering it up and minimizing the damage, he tried to hit running back Jason Wright on a screen. All the Browns players backs were still turned but at least three Ravens were in the area looking right at Anderson. Weak pass, Terrell Suggs grabs it, takes it to paydirt. Of course Braylon Edwards hasn’t done any favors for Anderson. Edwards dropped a beautifully thrown pass that was a sure touchdown. Are there any stats on how many drops Edwards has this season?

Devin Hester is an exciting player and his return ability was vital to the Bears Super Bowl run and media pundits like to tell us how he is the greatest return man in the history of the game. I am not so sure he’s the best in his ERA. Hester may be a better punt returner than Joe Cribbs, but he is not a better kickoff returner. Over their career, Cribbs is averaging 4 yards per return more than Hester. He has returned the ball more so by extrapolating Hester’s return numbers to match Cribbs we have 20+ returns: 94 vs. 129. 40+ returns: 12 vs. 23. Fumbles: 12 vs. 5. Hester may have six more career touchdowns than Cribbs, but on average Cribbs gives his team way better field position and doesn’t cough the ball up nearly as often.

Has anyone else noticed how fantastic the footwork Derrick Mason has shown this season? In a season where the sidelines have become a more difficult place to try to catch passes, Mason has caught several balls that required him to get two feet in bounds without falling/getting pushed out. This Sunday he caught a quick curl and danced around cornerback Eric Wright for an easy touchdown. Wright should be embarrassed for losing his jock to a stutter by a man a decade older than him.

Statistical Notes – Ray Rice has 72 more total yards than Willis Mcgahee despite having 25 fewer touches. He is averaging 4.8 YPC to Mcgahee’s 3.5. Joe Flacco has 4 TD to 0 Ints in his last 3 games compared to 1 TD/7 INT’s in his first five. Do you think Derrick Mason is happy with Joe Flacco? In his first 48 games as a Raven he had two 100 yard outings. He has 2 already this season. Last year’s Browns had 300+ yards of offense in 14 games. They have 2 this year. Jamal Lewis is 3^rd on the team in receptions with….13. Derek Anderson posted his 2^nd and highest yardage totals for the season the last two weeks…246 and 219.

Buccanneers over Chiefs or “How to lose a game when you are up 21 with 32 minutes to play.”

I was staring in disbelief at this game. I thought it was going to be a rout. I became a little more interested by the time the Chiefs went up 14-3. For some reason the name “Tyler Thigpen cracks my wife up.” We tuned in to see Thigpen split out right with the Chiefs in the wildcat formation. My wife laughed and yelled “They are going to throw it to Tyler Thigpen!” Sure enough, end around, Thigpen “Streaks” down the field, touchdown. Too bad my wife wasn’t there to let Ronde Barbe know that they were going to throw it to Thigpen…because he didn’t have a clue and was 15 yards behind him as the QB trotted into the end zone.

The Bucs had some trickery of their own and though it worked, I have to say NEVER have Earnest Graham throw another pass. That was the ugliest pass this year that wasn’t thrown by Jamarcus Russell.

I was impressed by the Chiefs offense. The Buccanneers defense has been pretty solid this season, with opponents averaging 270 yards total offense and 83 yards on the ground. With their third string quarterback in and their “Star” running back on the bench, they hung 384 total yards including 183 rushing yards on the Bucs. Jaamal Charles fumbled at an inopportune time, but I like him. Tyler Thigpen didn’t give the ball away. I once again must point out that the man that wanted out of KC but couldn’t get out, Tony Gonzlaez, went out and played hard and had a good game. Their “Star” running back Larry Johnson was sitting out again this time I believe because he spit in a woman’s face. I can’t see how a trade with Gonzo didn’t get done…who wouldn’t want a veteran like him on their team? I can see why a trade for LJ didn’t get done. Why would anyone want an utterly selfish 29 year old child on their team?

Time running down? Don’t let guys get behind you. With 41 seconds left in the first half and the ball at the Bucs 34, the Chiefs secondary let Joey Galloway get behind them for a 22 yard gain giving them hope for the second score in the last 2 minutes of the half. With 25 seconds left and the ball on the Chiefs 24 leading by seven, the Chiefs secondary let Antonio Bryant get behind them and score a touchdown. In situations like this, you only have to watch the sidelines and the deep ball…give them the middle of the field. In both cases they looked concerned about the middle of the field and gave up the deep ball.

Statistical Notes – 5 of 20 Tampa Touchdowns have been scored by the defense or special teams. Since returning to the starting role, Jeff Garcia has completed 71% of his passes. Earnest Graham fumbled twice in 24 touches this Sunday. In his previous 401 touches, he fumbled only once. In the last three weeks, Antoinio Bryant has 20 catches for 275 yards and 2 TDs. Tyler Thigpen has 0 INTs in his last four outings. He has 3 passing TDs, a rushing TD, and receiving TD in this span. Tony Gonzalez has 19 catches for 236 yards in the last three weeks.

Vikings over Texans or “Schaub, Rosenfels report shared nightmares about large men in purple.”

The Vikings had expected the addition of Jared Allen to really help put pressure on quarterbacks. The pass rush has been ok, but the Vikings had their breakout game this week. Matt Schaub (Who got injured on what I thought was a tad late of a takedown by Jared Allen) and Safe Rosenfels were sacked five times and hurried many, many more. The rush was directly responsible for two Schaub fumbles (one was recovered) and a Schaub interception. The Texans moved the ball well despite the pass rush, but these turnovers (including Rosenfel’s interceptions were absolute killers as both occurred in the red zone following two long drives.

Gus Frerotte put up some impressive looking numbers but his receivers really bailed him out. Berrian, Rice, and Wade each had at least one catch to bail Frerotte out of poor throws. Berrian had to come back on an underthrown ball and wrestle the ball away from two Texans receiver for a big gain early and came up with a ball thrown really high to take it into the end zone. Early in the season I thought that signing Berrien may have been a mistake, but he’s proven to be a very important part of this team.

Statistical Notes – Owen Daniels continued making an argument for himself to be an elite tight end grabbing 11 balls for over 100 yards. He leads all tight ends in yards per game and is on pace for nearly 1100 yards. Andre Johnson finally had an “Off Day”. His pace has fallen to 120 catches for 1646 yards. Slacker. Mario Williams continues his romp with his sixth sack in five games. He has eight on the season. Bernard Berrian has 432 yards in the last four games and has scored a touchdown in each of those contests. Since getting locked down by the Saints for 32 yards on 21 carries, Adrian Peterson has 371 yards and 3 TD’s in the last three games.

Cardinals over Rams or “The Greatest Show on Turf Returns to St. Louis!”

Uhm, only they are wearing Red and White. If you have not caught any Arizona Cardinals games, you really should. They are a lot of fun to watch. Not to mention they keep winning. If you need more incentive, they have at least five (Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and Tim Hightower) fantasy relevant players. Kurt Warner truly is still a good NFL quarterback, Fitz and Boldin are outstanding, and Tim Hightower is one of the exciting rookie backs in the league.

The Rams were coming off three games where they won two and played the Patriots tough. A big part of their two wins was Steven Jackson. I know he isn’t 100% so they were protecting him, but seven carries all game is inexcusable. As crazy as it sounds if they win this game they are only a game and a half out of the division lead. Steven Jackson having the ball gives the Rams the best chance to win.

Edgerrin James had been complaining about his “Reduced Role” with the team. He can’t be very happy now being relegated to the #3 RB. James has had a fantastic career (you have to wonder what it would have ended up being like had he not got hurt his third season) but he is 30 and isn’t what he once was. The Fact that Tim Hightower and J.J. Arrington both had 100+ total yards this week doesn’t bode well for his chances of getting back onto the field. Hightower had some serious burst and is probably better for the Cardinals at this point in time.

Statistical Notes – 2007 7^th round pick Derek Stanley has one career NFL reception….an 80 yard touchdown grab. Talk about making the most of limited opportunities! Marc Bulger led the team in rushing yards with 32. Bulger has less than 200 yards passing in 6 of 7 games. Anquan Boldin has scored in every game he played except for week 1. Kurt Warner remains consistent, throwing at least one TD in the last 16 games and at least two in 15 of the last 16. Larry Fitzgerald had his first game of the season where he didn’t score a touchdown or rack up 100 yards. This terrible game of his only put him at 6 catches for 81 yards.

Rookie Running Backs! – Tim Hightower, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson all put up 100 yards or more of offense (All but Chris Johnson had 100 yard rushing) this weekend. Of the top 10 running back performances of the week, 7 of them were first or second year running backs and the remaining 3 were first or second year starters. The two “Elder Statesmen” of the group are Michael Turner and Brandon Jacobs. Young backs can make huge differences in this league.

Falcons over Raiders or “60,000+ Raiders fans PAYED to watch this game.”

Oh boy. There is nothing much to say other than the Raiders were dominated in a way I’ve never seen before. We are just going to look at some game stats.

• Atlanta outgained the Raiders by 367 yards.
• Time of Possession – Falcons: 45:15. Raiders: 14:45.
• Plays: Atlanta 82. Raiders 34.
• First downs – Atlanta: 30. Raiders: *3*. No really!
• Yards through three quarters – Raiders: 14
• Matt Ryan: 17/22 for 220 yards and 2 TDs. Jamarcus Russell: 6/19 for 31 yards and 1 INT.
• Russell’s QB rating: 19.0 I didn’t think the QB rating WENT that low.

Did I mention the Raiders were at HOME? Things are ugly in the black hole. REALLY ugly. The worst part was the Raiders having to watch a “Rookie” Matt Ryan who was the first QB selected this season look like an actual professional while Jamarcus Russell…first player selected the prior year was throwing balls into the ground. The fact is……Russell is also a rookie! Not joining the team until the season was underway was a failure by both the Raiders and Russell. Matt Ryan was payed a ridiculous amount of money but reported to camp on time, worked out all summer with his team, and is helping to get the Falcons franchise turned around. Perhaps Russell knew he was probably going to flop and needed to get as much guaranteed money as possible with his rookie contract.

Things were so bad fans were chanting the name of Andrew Walter, a former 3^rd round pick with 3 career touchdowns and 13 career interceptions.

Statistical Notes – Matt Ryan has 200+ yards and a TD in each of the last three games. Johnson Abraham recorded 3 sacks bringing his total to 10. Michael Turner had his fourth 100 yard game and is on pace for 1600 rushing yards. Zack Miller leads the Raiders with 22 receptions on the year…barely above 2 per game. Jamarcus Russel failed to break 48% completions for the fifth time and 37% completions for the third time.

Giants over Cowboys or “Maybe Brooks Bollinger won’t help that much…”

Things are ugly for the Cowboys right now. Real Ugly. They were never even in this game and to be honest…the Giants did not play that well (Ridiculous amount of rushing yards aside, they did turn the ball over three times and tagged on a few three and outs.)

Tony Romo should return after the bye but I don’t even know if that will fix things. The offense will no doubt function better but the defense needs some help of its own. They have given up 190+ yards rushing twice in three weeks. They still have to play the Redskins, Eagles, Ravens, Steelers, and the Giants for the second time. All these teams will surely try to exploit their questionable run defense.

The Giants are not the undefeated team in the league but it’s hard not to consider them the best team in football. They are pretty solid in all aspects of the game. They have a very good chance of getting the first seed in the playoffs and it will be difficult to beat this team at home in the playoffs. It’s pretty crazy when you realize that they lost Michael Strahan, Usi Umenyiora, and Kawika Mitchell during the offseason. How dominant could this defense have been?

A huge reason for the Giants current success is Eli Manning suddenly discovering consistency. In the past you could just about count on Eli giving one away. He threw at least one interception in 42 of his first 57 games. Since the 2007 playoffs began, he has played 12 games and has thrown INTs in only four of them.

Statistical Notes – Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, and Ahmed Bradshaw have combined to average 5.3 yards per carry, 1528 total yards, and 10 touchdowns. Terrell Owens has posted between 31 and 36 receiving yards in the last four games. That is easily the worst four game stretch of his career. In six games this season, Tony Romo threw 5 interceptions and was sacked 7 times. In three games, Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger have combined to throw 6 interceptions and have been sacked 10 times.

Steelers over Redskins or “A bad day to be a quarterback…”

On Monday night Jason Campbell, Ben Roesthisberger and Byron Leftwich were sacked a combined 12 times and hit a combined 100 times. Ok, the 100 is an exaggeration but it might as well have been. By the end of the first quarter, Big Ben seriously looked like he wanted out.

Oddly enough the Steelers played far better with Byron Leftwich under the helm. After three straight rushing plays that led to a first down, Leftwich found Nate Washington for a huge gain which eventually led to a touchdown which changed the entire complexion of the game. I think more than anything the Steelers finally adapted to the Redskins pass rush style and were able to create a pocket for Leftwich to stand in. It wasn’t a display of Leftwich’s mobility, rather a display of the team finally coming together.

As good as the Redskins defense played in the first half, the Steelers defense probably played better and did so for the entire game. The downfield receivers were well covered at all times and the pass rush was brutal. Many, many times the Redskins lined up in a three wideout set with Clinton Portis as the lone back in the backfield. He’d pick up a pass rusher (Usually on the left side), hold him for a second or two, and flare out as a safety valve. With three quarters of play finished, only Portis, Chris Cooley, and Santana Moss had touched the ball…and Moss only had 2 receptions for 14 yards. When Campbell actually had any kind of time, his guys could not get open downfield.

The true victory for the Steelers defense came in the fact that their early offensive ineptness and good Redskins special teams play gave the Redskins the ball in Steelers territory three times. Out of those three possessions with excellent field position the Redskins walked away with a mere six points. As the game dragged on I knew that the Steelers would make a big play at some point and the Skins were not making enough of the gifts given to them.

In the middle of the fourth quarter, a helmet to helmet hit to Jason Campbell from James Farrior on 4^th and 9 gave the Redskins a glimmer of hope. A few plays later Campbell scrambled on 3^rd and goal on the 6 to apparently get into the end zone. He was stopped short and the Redskins had a chance to cut the lead to 10 on a 4^th and goal from the 1. I figured that despite how strong the Steelers defense had played, nothing would stop Clinton Portis from getting into the end zone. Instead, Defensive Tackle Lorenzo Alexander reported in as eligible and the fourth down play was ran with him as the lone receiving option. On 4^th and 1 with a glimmer of hope you choose a backup defensive lineman over your possible MVP running back as the one to put points on the board? An odd strategy no doubt.

Statistical Notes – The eight game streak of Clinton Portis getting 20 rushes ended with only 12 handoffs taken. He still managed to get enough yardage through the ground and air to go for over 100 total yards for the sixth straight game. He is now on pace for 2035 total yards (Which would be a career best). Jason Campbell threw his first and second interceptions of the season on Monday Night. The Redskins are outgaining Opponents 348 to 272 but have only scored 3 more points than they have allowed. Pittsburgh’s defense has not allowed a team to pass for 200 yards and allowed only the Ravens to rush for 100 yards (103). They are holding to an incredible 232 yards per game. Lamar Woodley and James Harrison have now combined for 19.5 sacks in 8 games. In one half of play, Big Ben’s QB rating was 15.1. In one half of play Byron Leftwich’s rating was 143.8.

Titans over Packers or “Oh, what a Heartbreaker.”

In one of the most engrossing games I have watched this year, my Packers took the Titans into overtime. They seemed to have the momentum but the Titans won the coin flip and scored on the first possession of overtime. Going into the game, I did not think the Packers would win. When it feels like you have the NFL’s only undefeated team on the ropes in their home stadium you get pretty excited.

Greg Jennings has been spectacular for the Packers this season but he looked clueless this Sunday. On at least three plays he wasn’t anywhere close to where he was supposed to be and he dropped two critical balls. One of those was a deep throw that would have changed the game greatly and I must admit I feel that there was obvious pass interference. I still think Jennings should have caught the ball. Jennings still ended up with 79 yards but it was Donald Driver that moved the chains in the passing game.

I admit that I really don’t like Ryan Grant that much but it was hard not to like him this Sunday. He had a few runs on Sunday that looked like they should be no gain where he kept his feet pumping and managed to pick up 4 or 5 yards. Many running backs forget that basic tenant and just try to dive forward for an extra foot or two when a pile emerging on top of them. Grant proved he has the desire to go out and help his team win.

Early in the game, the Titans pass rush was an absolute onslaught. From the first play where Javon Kearse was left unblocked it looked like it could be a long day for Aaron Rodgers. “Roll him out immediate to Haynesworth’s side. It’s going to be harder for Haynesworth to cut back towards him!” my dad said. Soon after, Rodgers started to roll out and the offense moved a little. The performed well between the 20s but boy does the Titans D tighten up inside the Red Zone.

A lot of people make jokes about Lendale White being fat and slow. It was White that broke the big run of the game and he looked anything but slow. Atari Bigby had a pretty rough time catching up to him. White did have to go put on an oxygen mask for a good amount of time after the run though. Lendale and Chris Johnson were responsible for 238 of the Titans 347 yards.

Statistical Notes – The Titans offensive line was a “mess”, giving up as many sacks this game as they have the previous 7. That means they have now given up….FOUR!?!??!! all season. Aaron Rodgers is on pace for just under 4000 yards, 26 TD’s, and 10 INTs. Donald Driver has his first 100 yard game since week 10 of last season. The Titans are the first team not to turn the ball over against the Packers. They have now gone three straight games without a giveaway.

Carnage Guesses on Games.

Here are last week’s picks.

1. Bills over Jets
2. Bears over Lions
3. Jaguars over Bengals
4. Ravens over Browns
5. Bucs over Chiefs
6. Cardinals over Rams
7. Titans over Packers
8. Giants over Cowboys
9. Falcons over Raiders
10. Eagles over Seahawks
11. Colts over Patriots
12. Redskins over Steelers

Crazy Upset Pick duo! Dolphins over Broncos. Broncos can’t stop the run. Here comes the wildcat! Texans over Vikings.

Woo! I finally had a decent week again. I shouldn’t have doubled up my crazy upset pick but I did hit one of them with the Dolphins Beating the Broncos. Those Darn Steelers…they get my vote of confidence last week and they lose. I write them off this week and they win. I am now 78-47 on the year. Remember, I go straight up, not against the spread.

Let’s see what we have for next week.

1. Ravens over Texans
2. Saints over Falcons
3. Titans over Bears
4. Jaguars over Lions
5. Dolphins over Seahawks
6. Packers over Vikings
7. Patriots over Bills
8. Jets over Rams
9. Panthers over Raiders
10. Steelers over Colts
11. Chargers over Chiefs
12. Cardinals over 49ers

    Crazy upset pick????? Broncos over Browns. The Browns are 3 point favorites. Seriously.

That is all for this week. Good luck to everyone but Vikings fans during the league’s final bye week.

    At least in the 6 and a half hours that football WAS on today, it was pretty good. 10 of the 13 games offered were compelling at least until the fourth quarter, and many of those were decided pretty late.

Ravens over Raiders or “It’s really really hard to run on the Ravens.”

When I saw this game in this week’s lineup I thought “This won’t be pretty for the Raiders.” It wasn’t. The Raiders really need to be able to run the ball to be successful and it just wasn’t going to happen here. It was Darren Mcfadden’s turn to be injured for the game so Justin Fargus and Michael Bush carried the load. They combined for only 32 yards on 17 carries. The Ravens D was all over them at the line of scrimmage. The Raiders tallied -2 yards in the first quarter and 35 yards for the first half. Their first half possessions were Punt, Safety, Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt.

I love watching the Ravens aggressive defense but I am a little disappointed in the “Headhunting” thing with Rashard Mendenhall. I realize that it is just a little thing to get the defense fired up, but the job of the defense is to hit EVERY opposing player as hard as possible, not to target a single guy and certainly not to hurt anybody. The classy thing to do would be to call off the pool if you put someone out for the season. No player should revel in the severe injury of another.

Also on display in this game were two young quarterbacks whom the hopes of the franchise rest upon. Neither played very well, but Joe Flacco’s performance was the more intriguing (more on that In a bit). I will say this….Jamarcus Russell’s arm is STRONG. In the second quarter, he threw a ball with what looked like minimal effort about 60 yards through the air. His Accuracy? Not so good. That same ball overshot its intended receiver by about 8 yards and was picked off.

Russell is supposed to be the athletic one but Joe Flacco had 66 yards rushing and receiving! Watching him rumble 38 yards to pay dirt against the Bengals in week 1 looked like watching in slow motion, but maybe he has some speed. Following the recent trend of trick plays, Flacco and backup QB Troy Smith lined up in the backfield. They had two tight ends on either side, and two receivers lined up right. The two Receivers ran short patterns near the right sidelines and the left tight end dragged towards the right. Flacco handed the ball to Smith and immediately took off around the left tackle and headed up field. Linebacker Thomas Howard caught on to what was going on and bolted past Flacco who had a few steps on him. The deep safety and cornerback on that side were milling around watching what was happening 30 yards away from them and Smith dropped a pass into Flacco for a big gain. Howard must have been thinking “LOOK THIS WAY! This maniac QB thinks he’s a deep threat.” They didn’t look that way until it was too late.

Statistical Notes – The Ravens defense is only giving up 64 yards on the ground per game and have not allowed a team to run for 100 yards all season. Joe Flacco has 2 TD’s and 0 INT’s in the last two games as opposed to 1 TD and 7 INT’s in the first five. Willis Mcgahee had 58 yards on 23 carries. Ray Rice and Leron Mcclain combined for 96 yards on 15 carries. Hmmmm. Jamarcus Russell failed to complete half of his pass attempts for the fourth time in seven games.

Panthers over Cardinals or “I’m guessing I’ll hear “I told you so” from a few people.”

Two weeks in a row I Pick the Panthers to lose. Last week it was obvious from the start that I was wrong. This week, I was feeling pretty smug into the third quarter. Ooops. For the record, I’m picking the Panthers to win next week no matter who they play.

First off, I really have to wonder about that fake field goal attempt near the end of the first half. I didn’t see it personally and it wasn’t on any highlights so I don’t know if it was a botched attempt. It went down as a “Fake Field Goal” so I assume it was a planned play. The Cardinals had 4^th and 15 from the Panthers 21 yard line. They line up for a field goal and end up with PUNTER Dirk Johnson throwing the ball for a 10 yard gain. I can see a fake on 4^th and 4 or something, but 4^th and 15? Seriously? Instead of kicking a 38 yard field goal and likely going into the locker room up by 10 at the end of the half? Dirk Johnson showed his stuff later in the game by simply dropping the ball as he attempted to plant it on an extra point attempt. 3 points plus 1 point? Hey! That’s the difference in the game!

Finding themselves down by 14 in the third quarter with the Cardinals moving the ball pretty easily, most teams would start to panic and go pass wacky. On their next possession, the Panthers called run, pass, pass, run, run, run. They stayed true to their game plan and avoided the one dimensional three and out/three and out/interception/game over attack that plagues many teams. Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme came up with some big plays, but Deangelo Williams enabled the downfield plays to open up. This team played excellent football in the second half.

Of course, they could have went into half time with four more points on the board. Jake Delhomme threw a pass to an absolutely wide open Mushin Muhammed in the end zone. If the Panthers had lost this game by four I’m thinking he’d be the least popular person in the Charlotte area.

The Cardinals on the other hand look like they are getting ready to throw away the “Run Plays” section of their playbook. Out of 67 plays, they ran 14 times…once being an end around to Anquan Boldin. The remaining 13 carries for Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower gave the Cards 20 yards on 13 carries, 1 TD, and a huge fumble. It’s pretty bad when the running game won’t open up even when rushing the ball is practically a trick play for your team. Kurt Warner has been pretty good this season and has some spectacular receivers, but I have to wonder if he can continue to throw 40 times per game for an entire season.

Anquan Boldin is one tough dude. Seriously. He got hit so hard in the game against the Jets that he had 8 plates put into his face, had his jaw wired, had a concussion, and lost 15 pounds. He only missed two games and played very well Sunday. If I had eight plates put in my face I would still be laying on the couch and yelling at my wife to increase the rate of the Morphine drip.

Statistical Notes – Ignoring the Buccanneers debacle, Jake Delhomme has 8 TD’s to 1 INT in the past four games (8/4 in the last five with the Tampa game). Steve Smith has at least 96 yards in each of his last five games. Deangelo Williams had 3 100 yard games in his first 29 outings and has 2 in his last 8. Kurt Warner has throw a touchdown in his last 15 games and multiple TD’s in 14 of them. Larry Fitzgerald has 4 100 yard games out of 5 when Bolding is in the lineup, 0 in 2 when Boldin is out. Anquan Boldin has 7 TD’s in 5 games. Tim Hightower has 65 touches this season…and six touchdowns! He scores every 10 times he touches the ball!

Cowboys over Buccanneers or “It was UGLY but they’ll take it.”

This was a huge win for the Cowboys. They needed to stop the bleeding that happened over the last four games, and they needed to do it without Tony Romo. Brad Johnson is not good. I know he was a decent veteran quarterback and has a super bowl ring but at age forty he is slow and doesn’t have arm strength or accuracy. After watching him throw a few passes that were not even close, I thought Terrell Owens was about to go into meltdown mode. I knew the team had to win at least one of the three without Tony Romo, but after they lost the Rams game I thought they were in trouble, because no way do they beat the Giants on the road with Johnson. Still, if they are looking at 5-4 worst case scenario and a fully healed Romo after the bye week, they need to sit him one more week if he needs it.

The Cowboys defense, which hasn’t played well in the last few weeks, really stepped it up. The stat of the game is 0 for 3, which would be the Bucs in the Red Zone. The other stat of the game is 45:20, which is the ratio of passes to runs that the Bucs called. Their three losses have been decided by a total of 11 points. Over those three losses they have run the ball 60 times out of 187 plays (32% of the time) and in their five wins, they ran 163 out of 342 times (48% of the time). Earnest Graham wasn’t having his best day rushing, granted, but they didn’t even try to switch over to Warrick Dunn’s different style to see if he could have more success. Jon Gruden’s tactics have really been bothering me.

Dallas’ go ahead drive was a disaster for the Bucs defense. The Cowboys got the ball with just over 2 minutes in the first half at their own 41. They needed to match 59 yards to score a touchdown. They gained 29 yards, and the Bucs gave them 30 yards in penalties to help them to the end zone. Despite holding the Cowboys to 172 yards of offense, the Cowboys managed to score three times.

Statistical Notes – The Cowboys offense was averaging 393 yards per game going into Sunday. They ended up 220 yards under average! Marion Barber didn’t have his best outing, finding little room to run against the Tampa front line but he did manage to put up 100 total yards for the 6^th time in 8 games. Terrell Owens has a total of 101 yards in the last 3 games. The Bucs D held the opponent to under 200 yards for the 3^rd time this season and is averaging 277 yards per game. Jeff Garcia has thrown 100 passes in the last three games without throwing a single INT. Brian Griese attempted 147 passes and threw 6 INT’s in his time as a starter.

Redskins over Lions or “Seven down, nine to go!”

The Lions were looking to jeopardize their winless streak. Despite being outgained 212 yards to 104, they went into the locker room at halftime….winning? The Redskins, with the St. Louis debacle and the near disaster against the Browns had to be a little nervous.

No reason for that though…it’s the Lions. Once again I must point out an unbalanced team. Before the season started, the Lions declared that with Mike Martz out they were going to commit to running the football. Out of 51 plays called, they ran 13 times. Ugh. On the year they have only ran the ball a mere 122 times in 378 plays, an atrocious 32% of the time. Hey! You are 0-7! What you are doing isn’t working! Try something new!

In the Panthers game, we saw speedy little 5’9″ 185 pound Steve Smith make two huge plays to score touchdowns. There is another speed little 5’9″ 185 pound wide receiver that makes plays too, and Santana Moss matched Steve Smith’s touchdown total with a 50 yard catch and a big punt return. Moss managed to avoid getting tackled by several Lions players and one Redskin. If you have not noticed, he is really fast.

I think a player that is really overlooked is Jason Campbell. He had another fantastic game today. I mentioned it before but the difference from last year to this year in his ability to get the ball to his wideouts is amazing. He’s spreading the ball around and avoiding making ill advised throws even when under pressure. The Lions were getting to him and did force him to cough off the ball on a few sacks but he played very smart once again and kept the chains moving (16 first downs passing on just 28 pass attempts). I doubted him as last year wore on but I am super impressed by him thus far in 2008.

Statistical Notes – Clinton Portis is having an unbelievable season. The Redskins keep feeding him the rock (20+ carries in all 8 games) and he keeps producing. He had his fifth 100 yard game in a row. He’s on pace for nearly 1900 rushing yards on 5 yards per carry. Santana Moss is on pace for 1300 yards and 10 TD’s. The Detriot Lions average time of possession is 24:42. That is bad. Somewhere in this mess Calvin Johnson has still managed to be on pace for 1300 yards and 10 TD’s. Promising rookie Kevin Smith had 26 carries in the first two games and 30 carries total in the last 5.

Dolphins over Bills or “Trent Edward’s bad day.”

If anything, the Dolphins are…interesting this season. They have moved the ball pretty well in almost every game. The wildcat is still a factor and the team employed it at least 10 times and got a few decent runs out of it. Even Ricky Williams got a shot at taking a direct snap. The big story on offense was yards after the catch. Ted Ginn had a big day, a lot of it running after catching the ball and Ricky Williams turned a short pass in the flat into a 47 yard gain. Chad Pennington had a 300 yard game on paper, but credit his pass catchers with almost half of it.

Joey Porter continues to be a force on the Dolphins defensive side of the ball. Thought to be past his prime, he puts good pressure on the QB and came up with 2 more sacks and a huge “fumble” recovery when he took the ball away from Trent Edwards on a fourth and short play.

Edwards lost the ball twice, saw a wobbly ball get picked off after being blindsided, and was taken down in the end zone for 2 points. Edwards had taken reasonably good care of the ball until today. He seems to be having problems finding anybody open down the field except for Lee Evans. It’s hard to tell if he is leaning on Evans or if the others are just not getting open.

Statistical Notes – Chad Pennington threw for over 300 yards on Sunday and is averaging 280 yards per game over the last four outings. He has 5 TD’s to 2 INT’s during that time. He’s not a bad desperation fantasy QB. Ted Ginn Jr. had 177 yards in the first six games this season and 175 yards on Sunday. Marshawn Lynch has scored in 5 of 7 games but still has not gained 100 total yards in a game this season. Lee Evans had his third 100 yard game of the season and is on pace for a career high 1400 yards. Joey Porter now has 10.5 sacks on the season.

Patriots over Rams or “Come see stars like Antonio Pittman, Donnie Avery, Matt Cassell, and Benjarvis Green-Ellis battle it out.”

Those probably aren’t the names you thought of in preseason when seeing this game on the schedule. With Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, and Steven Jackson out not to mention Tory Holt lost for the season to this point to double teams…these are some of the guys who were big players in this game. Seriously.

Donnie Avery, a player many people mocked for making the first wide receiver off the board, made Marc Bulger look great. On one of the deep balls he caught, he had to stop his all out sprint to turn around and come back to the ball. That is incredibly difficult to do and is something that not too many rookies are good at. Fighting your own momentum and the momentum of your defender is not an easy thing to do. I do wonder if Donnie Avery would have had such a strong game if the Patriots had not lost Rodney Harrison for the season (Career?)

The Rams #2 overall pick Chris Long has had a pretty quiet rookie year. He looked like he would be easily dominated early on and the Rams being run all over he’s holding his ground a little better and was able to get to Matt Cassell a few times and sacked him twice. I think people sometimes expect that defensive ends should be able to jump right in and pick up where they left off in college. There is technique to learn and veteran opposing offensive linemen can be very crafty and difficult to beat. We saw Mario Williams have a slow start his rookie year and get labeled a bust. Last I checked, he was doing pretty well.

Facing third and 1 from the Rams 3, the Patriots trotted out linebacker Mike Vrabel. In previous years the Patriots liked to put him in on short yardage goal line situations and pass the ball to him. This time, handoff to Green-Ellis, first down. Vrabel stays in the lineup and checks in as an eligible receiver once again. Green-Ellis up the middle for a touchdown. With all the “Trick” plays going around the league the Patriots decided to run a Trick, Trick play.

Matt Cassell didn’t look incredible but he has been improving. I think Tom Brady finally called him up and said “Hey Matt, this job really isn’t that hard. I thought you’d figure this one out by now but if you throw the ball in Randy Moss’ general direction he’s big enough that he can usually fight off 2 or 3 guys for it. He’ll usually run a little bit after he catches it so your numbers will look bigger.” In the Patriots two losses Randy Moss averaged 3 catches for 25 yards. In their five wins he grabbed 5 balls for 84 yards.

Statistical Notes – Moss is the big play guy but it’s easy to find Wes Welker open. He has at least 6 catches in all 7 games this season. Kevin Faulk is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The rest of the Patriots team is averaging 3.9 YPC. Marc Bulger threw for 300+ yards for the first time since last November. Sunday was also the first game this season he eclipsed the 200 yard mark. Donnie Avery has 291 yards and 3 TD’s in the last three weeks. If he’s on your fantasy waiver wire, he shouldn’t be. Torry Holt moved up to #15 on the all time receiving yards list, although he isn’t having a very Holt like season.

Saints over Chargers or “How odd, that Chap is trotting in the wrong direction!”

Historic Interlude – During the NFL pregame show the London game was hyped a lot and they cut over to the United States National Anthem being sung in front of the crowd at Wembley Stadium. My wife pointed out how bizarre the situation actually was. The Star Spangled Banner of course, was written during the war in 1812 and was about Francis Scott Key’s feeling of pride when the Americans repelled the Royal Navy’s attempt to bombard Fort McHenry. Fort McHenry was a crucial embattlement that prevented the Royal Navy from devastating or taking Baltimore which was one of the largest American cities at that time. Essentially the song is a tribute to us keeping the Imperialistic scum from retaking or levying more sanctions on our new country that was once under control of the British crown. Both the War of 1812 and Revolutionary Wars were embarrassing to the British Empire. The Star Spangled Banner was followed by “God Save the Queen”, the British National Anthem. That song speaks of “Scattering her enemies, making them fall, confusing their politics, and frustrating their knavish Tricks.” Adopted around the time that the American Revolution takes place, it promotes killing the enemies and removing political leaders while avoiding the guerilla tactics these mere rabble servants have laid. Uhm, that would refer at least in some part to the United States!

Anyway, back to football. Both teams here were pretty much facing much win games. Chargers running back Ladainian Tomlinson declared himself totally healthy while the Saints were without Reggie Bush and had a number of players involved in a failed test for banned substances. The talk all week wasn’t about running backs though, it was about quarterbacks. Philip Rivers took over Drew Brees’ position with the Chargers which resulted in Brees hooking up with the Saints. These two players did NOT disappoint.

Drew Brees came out looking like ridiculously efficient once again, connecting on 21 out of his first 25 attempts. I thought he might flounder a little bit without Reggie Bush as his safety valve, but when he gets adequate protection he is just ridiculous. He’s a pretty small guy but his arm is deceptively strong and extremely accurate. With Tom Brady out and Peyton Manning having an unpeyton like year, I have to say Brees is the best in the NFL right now. He can throw the short ball, the can throw the long ball, and most important of all he just plays smart.

That isn’t to say that Philip Rivers is chopped liver. He played a heck of a game, too. His Interception ended the game but keep in mind that a long field goal try could have tied the game at that and Rivers had what would have been his fourth TD pass of the game nullified by a penalty a few drives earlier. Penalties devastated the Chargers. I don’t know if it was lack of focus due to a Jet Lag effect or a sign of a frustrated team. Either way, 14 penalties for a total of 134 yards is always going to be a barrier to victory.

British fans must have been very confused by Drew Brees trying to burn time by sprinting towards the wrong goal to burn time and take a safety. Actually, I AM confused by it. The play only took five seconds off the clock. By punting to the Chargers with 14 seconds left, they could have kicked towards the sidelines and put them at the Chargers 40 without too much effort. In the case of some miracle, the Chargers could have scored a touchdown and been faced with either kicking the PAT to tie the game or going for two and the win. If something crazy happened after the Safety and the Chargers managed to get into the end zone, the Saints lose.

One more comment on this game. This wasn’t as bad as last years’ “Mud Bowl” but the conditions of the center of the field at Wembley again were not good. I really don’t like this “Regular season game in London” thing very much as it is. The Saints won, yes, but they are a reasonable contender that lost a home game AND had to fly over the Atlantic to play a game. Add poor field conditions which increase the risk of injuries makes playing in this game look even less compelling. If the NFL is going to be playing more games in foreign countries they better start checking out the venues in advance to ensure playing surfaces are safe.

Statistical Notes – Brees has 300+ yards in 6 of eight games. He is on pace for 5126 yards on the season. In four Saints wins he has 12 TD’s and 2 INT’s. In four Saints losses he has 3 TD’s and 5 INT’s. Philip Rivers has at least 1 TD pass in fifteen games going back to last year. He has 3 TD’s in 5 out of eight games this season. He’s on pace for a 4000 yard, 38 TD, 12 INT season. Those are elite numbers. Vincent Jackson has scored in three straight games. Lance Moore had his third 6+ catches, 90+ yard game out of the last five games. Tight End Billy Miller is averaging 63 Yards per game over the last four games. The two QB’s combined to throw the ball 85 times. They hit 15 different receivers and neither was sacked a single time.

Run the Ball or “The Statistic with the greatest corollary to winning.”

I talk a lot about teams failing to try to run the ball quite a bit in these reviews. I also run this section pretty often. I’m not a crusty old school guy who thinks the forward pass is the worst thing to happen to football, but I can’t help but notice how much a team’s success depends on running the ball. I will look at the percentage of plays the winning team called that were runs compared to the same stat of the opponent. Every week the majority of the teams that ran the ball a higher percentage of the time are the ones that won. This week, heading into Monday Night, this rule held true in 13 of 13 games. The winners of the games ran 812 offense plays and called 392 runs (48.2% rushing plays). The losers of the games ran 818 offensive plays and called 284 runs (34.7% rushing plays). On average, game winners ran the ball 13% more frequently than game losers. Some will argue that this is inevitable because the team that is ahead will run and the team behind will pass. I want to remind everyone at this point that most of the games were close this week with fourth quarter lead changes in many of them. Teams could safety run the ball as usual most of the game. Falling behind early doesn’t necessarily mean you need to abandon the run. See Panthers, Carolina.

Jets over Chiefs or “Brett Favre outdueled by….Tyler Thigpen?”

The Jets were extremely lucky to come away from this came victorious. Brett Favre did a really bad job protecting the ball for the third week in a row, though the Jets did win two of those games. It looked like Favre was really getting in synch with his receivers after demolishing the Cardinals in week 4. The three picks he threw this week were absolutely horrible. One was into double coverage, one was into triple coverage, and one hit Cornerback Brandon Flowers in the chest and wasn’t within 8 yards of a Jets receiver. A potential fourth pick that probably would have went the other way bounced off the chest of a chiefs defender. Even the two touchdown passes he threw were a testament to his receivers. Leon Washington one handed a screen pass and made some moves to scramble into the end zone. Lavernious Coles came back for a poorly thrown bal to make a one handed grab in the end zone.

The Chiefs defense hasn’t really stopped anybody running the ball all season so I was a bit puzzled that Thomas Jones and Leon Washington only were given 17 carries between them. These are two fine players and should be utilized more. With due respect to Coles, Leon Washington is the most explosive guy on this team and is only touching the ball 7 times a game (receptions included).

On the other side, Minnesota Vikings 2007 7^th round pick Tyler Thigpen out of Coastal Carolina suddenly looked like an all star. Since I’m guessing he’s not REALLY that good, I’m thinking that Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez are simply outstanding players to throw to. Again, I can’t say enough about Gonzo showing up to be a leader for a 1-6 team despite practically begging to be traded. He is (statistically) the greatest tight end in the history of the league and his career is nearing an end. Being part of a rebuilding project has to hurt, but Tony Gonzalez continues to show up and play hard. Larry Johnson would do well to follow his example. Trades didn’t go through? Shut up, play, and behave like a man off the field.

Statistical Notes – Lavernious Coles has 33 Catches and five TD’s in his last five games. Despite some of the struggles, Brett Favre is on pace to throw 33 TD’s which would be his best total since 1997. He is also completing a career high 68.5 % of his passes. Unfortunately he is leading the league with 11 INT’s in 7 games. Dwayne Bowe had his first 100 yard game of the season and the third of his career. He is quietly putting together a big season and is on pace for 88 catches and 1100 yards. Tony Gonzalez started slow but has 12 catches for 176 yards in his last two games.

Texans over Bengals or “Marvin Lewis STILL has a job?”

This season is not salvageable but I still have to ask this question all of the time. The Bengals are just absolutely positively a bad team. They lost Carson Palmer for the year, yes, but I don’t think it matters. They can’t play defense, they can’t run and now they can’t throw. Next season is likely to see some old faces (T.J. Housh and Ocho Cinco) leaving and the Bengals going into full rebuilding mode. Get a new coach lined up and have him start looking at who needs to stay and who needs to go.

The Texans set the tone for the game when Jacoby Jones took the opening kick all the way in for a touchdown. Andre Johnson was (I think) double and triple teamed all day but often found himself with no Bengals within three yards. He’s out of control. Dunta Robinson celebrated his return to the NFL with an interception in his second game back.

This team has a lot of talent on it and are fun to watch. Well, at least they are fun to watch when not playing the Bengals. I don’t think any Bengals game has been much fun. As I’ve mentioned before they suddenly have quite a few fantasy relevant players: Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels, and Steve Slaton are all worth a roster spot. Most of them are worth a starting nod most weeks.

Statistical Notes – Andre Johnson had his fifth 100 yard game of the season and has double digit catches in four of seven…and he caught nine balls in another game. He leads the league in both receptions and yards and is on pace for 114 catches and 1700 yards. Steve Slaton has at least one TD in five of the last six games. After a rocky start, Matt Schaub is on a four game tear where he is averaging 308 yards per game and has 9 TD’s to only 2 INTs. Heck, toss in a rushing touchdown for good measure.

Browns over Jaguars or “No! You are supposed to win at home!”

The Jaguars are now 1-3 at home, 2-1 on the road for the season putting themselves and the Browns with the pack of 3-4 AFC teams. On paper, the Jaguars had to be salivating at this matchup. The Browns have been pretty bad against the run this season, giving up 4.7 Yards per carry. Unfortunately, the broken up Jaguars line couldn’t open any holes in the stacked box Browns defense and were forced to try to open things up through the air. It’s hard for the Jags to win when Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are essentially taken out of the game. Late in the second half, the Jaguars had 3^rd and 2 in Browns territory. Gain of one, gain of zero and the ball is turned over on downs. Not being able to get 2 yards in two plays means your offensive line is doing a terrible job getting off the ball. A first down would have put them at the 36 and within a few yards of a field goal try. Instead, the Browns get the ball on a short field and put up 3 of their own.

Speaking of field goals, the Jaguars missed another opportunity. They scored early in the first half and were driving again. Josh Scobee, who has been very reliable this season, lined up for a 38 yard field goal. The Browns got tremendous penetration up the middle and came up with a block. That field goal would have tied the game. Later in the game, the Jags were down by three with under five minutes remaining. Will Witherspoon took the kickoff and ran forward into his own man. Ball pops loose and the Browns get to put up 3 more. The Jaguars got the ball back with 1:51 left. It took them 70 seconds to run 3 plays. Yeah, the clock was ticking, but you need to operate faster than that.

The Browns needed 8 plays last week to get in from the one yard line. Facing first and goal from the Jaguars 1, they ran, lost one. Incomplete, Incomplete, Field goal. Ouch. Time to work on the short yardage plays.

Statistical Notes – Derek Anderson has 3 TD’s and 0 INTs in his last three games. Jamal Lewis has at least 80 yards rushing in the last four games and has scored three times in that span. Matt Jones had his first 100 yard game of the season and leads the Jaguars in receptions and yards. I don’t know what is going on with his legal matters, but it’s a shame that Jones got himself in trouble. David Garrard is back to his old ways, taking care of the ball. After throwing 4 INT’s in his first three games, he has gone four games without one. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have three 100 yard games between them. Their next highest game totals are 49 and 32. That isn’t good.

Falcons over Eagles or “Instant Review rule looms large….”

Replay Rule Segue: I have to wonder if this game will cause a change in Instant Replay rules. In case you didn’t see it, the Falcons were down 20-7 with about four and a half minutes to play in the game. They were facing a fourth and five at the Eagles’ 15 yard line. Matt Ryan was forced to call a time out to talk the play over. They picked up the first down and two plays later scored to make it 20-14. They kicked the ball deep and needed a big defensive stop. They gave up 8 yards on first down but stopped Brian Westbrook from gaining 2 yards in 2 carries. They wisely burned their last two time outs to keep the Eagles from running down the clock and were going to get the ball back in decent field position with over 2 minutes left, down by only 6 points. The punt went high in the air and Adam Jennings tried to clear out of the way instead of field it. The ball hit the ground near Jennings and the officials believed that it touched him. The Eagles jump on the ball and it is ruled Eagles ball. The Falcons are sure that the ball was NOT touched and replay shows that it probably wasn’t. Because there are more than 2 minutes there cannot be a booth review. Because the Falcons do not have a time out (in case they lost the challenge they needed to be holding a time out) they couldn’t throw the challenge flag. The Falcons could still get the ball back with very little time left but two plays later Brian Westbrook busts his second TD of the game to seal the victory. I know that Instant Replay can slow down the game so there are rules in place to make sure the Officials aren’t constantly reviewing play calls, but in this case the system did not work. The Falcons used their timeouts properly over the course of the second half and had a legitimate gripe about the call. There are rules in place for penalizing a team for calling a time out back to back or for calling a time out when they do not have one. Perhaps a penalty can be enforced on a lost challenge when the team is not holding any timeouts?

The Eagles have not been that great in the red zone this year, converting on 14/30 tries. I can’t find solid red zone stats but I’d have to say that 50% won’t cut it. With Brian Westbrook in the line I thought it might help out a bit. Westbrook has developed a nose for the end zone. The Eagles went 2/4 again and failed to convert on 2^nd and goal from the 2, 2^nd and goal from the 1, and 3^rd and goal from the one. I mentioned it before but I think it may be time to start thinking of using some type of lead blocker for these short yardage situations. Shaun Alexander and Ladainian Tomlinson were rarely denied near the goal line in their huge TD seasons with guys like Mack Strong and Lorenzo Neal leading the way. Perhaps even lining up a Tight End in the back field if the team does not want to carry a fullback?

Michael Turner and Matt Ryan got a dose of reality a little bit in this game. Michael Turner plugged away at about 3.2 YPC and Matt Ryan dropped down to about 6 yards per pass attempt and threw two picks. Of course, that has a lot to do with the fact that the Eagles defense is somewhat under rated. They are giving up 283 yards per game and without the Cowboys and Redskins contests, the other five games have them holding opponents to 248 yards. That didn’t prevent Roddy White from getting open. He’s truly developing into a top tier receiver.

Statistical Notes – Despite essentially only playing four games, Westbrook has 8 TD’s and has 500 total yards. I don’t think I need to tell you how big his season could have been if he remained healthy. He added some explosiveness that the Eagles were lacking. He had the sixth 200+ combined yard game of his career in his comeback game. 11 different Eagles players have a sack this season and they have 23 as a team. Michael Turner was held to less than 60 yards in 3 out of the last 4 games. Roddy White is averaging 7 catches, 113 yards, and a TD in his last five games. Matt Ryan had 3 INT’s in his first 6 NFL games and 2 INT’s Sunday.

Giants over Pittsburgh or “Ben Roethlisberger is one tough guy.”

This was one heck of a physical football game. A lot of big hits, some of which proved to be costly. The Steelers lost their long snapper Greg Warren (Probably for the season) which resulted in a punt snapped well over Jeff Feagles head and 2 points for the Giants. Early in this fourth quarter, the Giants having had difficulties moving the ball, Eli Manning found Steve Smith near the end zone. Safety Ryan Clark came in and hit Smith really hard, jarring the ball loose which saved a big play…but he was injured in the process. Cornerback Ike Taylor was hurt a few plays later and the Giants had an easier time moving the ball the rest of the fourth quarter.

I can’t find stats on knock downs and hurries, but in addition to being sacked 5 times, I would hazard to guess that Big Ben was hit on around 15 of his 29 pass attempts. On the stat sheet, it looks like he played terrible having thrown four interceptions, but he had an awfully hard day finding time to throw (His first INT was thrown when he had time and was a terrible pass). He’s been sacked 23 times this season total and hit a LOT. Obviously some of the credit has to be given to the Giants defense because they were fantastic on the pass rush.

The Steelers run defense smothered Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward, which is no easy task. They Giants were averaging 170 yards per game on the ground at around 5.4 yards per carry. The two Giants backs carried the ball 31 times and managed only 84 total yards, 2.7 yards per attempt. In the first half, the Steelers mounted a goal line stand for the ages, keeping the Giants out of the end zone on 1^st and goal from the 2, 2^nd and goal from the 2, and four straight from the 1.

This was a huge win for the Giants. They hung in there and beat a really tough Steelers team on the road. They seem to me to be the class of the NFC. The Steelers have some serious protection problems that they need to take care of because they have a really brutal schedule ahead of them. They are at Washington, Colts, Chargers, at the Patriots, Cowboys, at Baltimore, and At Tennessee yet. I think they win their division but they are in the midst of what may be the roughest schedule I have ever seen.

Statistical Notes – Eli Manning has thrown a TD in 20/23 games in the last two seasons. This year, he has four interceptions but has not thrown one in five of seven games. Big Ben had 3 INT’s in his last 9 regular season games and threw four on Sunday. Mewelde Moore has 344 total yards and four TD’s in his last three games. Nate Washington has scored in three straight games.

Titans over Colts or “The King is dead! Titans clinch division in week 8.”

Ok, maybe I’m being a tad premature, but taking a four game lead at this point in the season is pretty serious. If the Titans go even 5-4 in the last nine games the Colts, Jaguars, or Texans have to win out. The last time the Colts did not win this division was 2003.

To be honest, I was not that impressed by the Titans for the first half of the game. I expected them to absolutely dominate the Colts on both sides of the line of scrimmage. I think Kyle Vanden Bosch sitting out probably affected the run defense as well as the pass rush. Dominic Rhodes and Chad Simpson were able to run the ball reasonably well. Even with the Titans not getting as much pressure as expected on Peyton Manning, he still had a hard day and didn’t look up and see his wide outs open very often. Dallas Clark created some problems and helped keep the Colts into this game into the fourth quarter.

The Colts who had given up huge rushing games to the Jaguars, Vikings, Bears, and Texans had to have the Titans Salivating. Without Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney, the Colts held Chris Johnson and Lendale White to 90 yards on 29 carries….or 3.1 yards per carry. They forced Kerry Collins to be the one to gain the yardage and he did, albeit very slowly. They couldn’t keep Johnson and White from three TD’s though.

Statistical Notes – Lendale White has 10 touchdowns in 7 games. He has 91 touches over this span, meaning he scores every 9 times he has the ball. Kerry Collins has not thrown a touchdown or an interception in three of the last four games. Chris Johnson is on pace for 1600 total yards. He has also scored in three of the last four games. Peyton Manning is posting his worst completion percentage, Yards per attempt, INT percentage, passer rating, and yards per game since he was a rookie. Reggie Wayne averaged 93 yards per game over the first five weeks, 27 over the last two. Dallas Clark has 15 catches for 175 yards and 2 TD’s in the last two games.

Carnage’s guesses on games or “Good thing I kept my day job.”

I posted a respectable 8-5 this week making it 68-43 on the season (This is straight up, no spread. I don’t gamble on games, I only care about the outcome.) I did miss my crazy upset pick.

1. Baltimore over Oakland
2. Bucs over Cowboys
3. Redskins over Lions
4. Patriots over Rams
5. Saints over Chargers
6. Jets over Chiefs
7. Eagles over Falcons
8. Jaguars over Browns
9. Texans over Bengals
10. Steelers over Giants
11. 49ers over Seahawks
12. Titans over Colts
13. Cardinals over Panthers

     

    Next week we have…

     

14. Bills over Jets
15. Bears over Lions
16. Jaguars over Bengals
17. Ravens over Browns
18. Bucs over Chiefs
19. Cardinals over Rams
20. Titans over Packers
21. Giants over Cowboys
22. Falcons over Raiders
23. Eagles over Seahawks
24. Colts over Patriots
25. Redskins over Steelers
26. Crazy Upset Pick duo! Dolphins over Broncos. Broncos can’t stop the run. Here comes the wildcat! Texans over Vikings. Vikings are getting 4.5 points? With that secondary? If Marty Booker ripped them up imagine what Andre Johnson is going to do!

     

    That’s all for this week! Enjoy!

     

Bills over Chargers or “Helium Balloons? Are you serious?”

I’ve been growing somewhat fond of the Bills and wanted to spend some time checking this game. Early in the afternoon, I couldn’t get it on TV, no updates were coming on the internet and reports were saying that there was a power failure. The power went out several times and Ralph Wilson and the culprit was apparently three helium balloons that got stuck in power lines near the stadium. Seriously, three helium balloons are able to cut off power from a multi-million dollar facility? Are you kidding me? If it happens a few more times I’ll be convinced it’s a conspiracy so the Bills can claim the stadium is worthless and move to Toronto.

The Chargers are in trouble. The first seven weeks looked to be the easier part of their schedule in pre season. Yeah, they get the Chiefs twice yet but they also have games against the Saints in London (Hard to tell what effect travelling that far has on a team), at Pittsburgh, Indy, Falcons, Broncos, at Tampa. They absolutely have to win four of those games (Preferably the Denver game being one) to really think of the post season.

A lot of fault for this game is probably going to fall on Philip Rivers, who fumbled twice and threw a very ill advised ball near the goal line, but Philip Rivers is really one of the few bright spots this team has had. The defense isn’t near what it was last season. They are giving up 370 yards per game, 50 more than last season. Not counting the 4 turnover Jets game, they have 6 takeaways in 6 games. They averaged 3 a game last week. Most glaring was their inability to get to Trent Edwards. He had a lot of time to pick and choose his targets. They couldn’t get off the field as Edwards completed pass after pass.

Of course, there is the thing that nobody seems to want to say. Ladainian Tomlinson is not the same player. Maybe it’s the toe, maybe it is age finally catching up to him, but he doesn’t look nearly as fast as he has in years prior. The offensive line isn’t doing him any favors but he isn’t making clean cuts to the smallish holes that do exist.

I was extremely impressed by the Bills this Sunday. They seem to be gaining momentum and starting to believe they can do this thing. One of the big catalysts is “Who Dat” Fred Jackson. The guy plays with a lot of emotion and does everything asked of him. He is a good blocker in both the running and passing game. His lead block for Marshawn Lynch’s touchdown is definitely highlight material. It’s good to have a guy like Jackson in your lineup. He plays aggressively and selflessly because he knows he’s lucky to get this chance and will make the most of it.

The Bills defense is a very overlooked storyline. They were dead last in yards allowed last season and are only allowing 292 yards per game. Kawika Mitchell really shined this game playing a part in pass coverage, run support, and attacking Philip Rivers. He came away with an interception, a sack, and a fumble recovery. He was instrumental in the Giants defense surging at the end of last season and brings a lot to the table.

Statistical Notes – Lee Evans had eight catches. He hadn’t had more than four in a game since November 4^th of last year. Marshawn Lynch has scored in 4 of 6 games but has yet to have a 100 yard rushing day. He’s fighting for every single yard and the Bills are doing well to remain patient and plug away with him. Ladainian Tomlinson had 129 TD’s in his first 110 games. He has 4 TD’s in 7 games this year. Philip Rivers has thrown 2 or more TD’s in 5/7 games this season and thrown at least one in his last 14 contests dating back to last year. Antonio Gates, who had 639 yards at this point last season, has not caught for more than 62 yards in the last 11 games.

Panthers over Saints or “My Humble Apology to PanthersPhan”

In my weekly picks last week I was absolutely adamant about The Saints beating the Panthers. I was harping about how scary of a team the Saints were looking like with a red hot Drew Brees and an emerging run defense. I thought no way they lose this game. They didn’t just lose, they were absolutely dominated.

The next 4 weeks should be interesting. The last three season fans have been considering Reggie Bush to be a “Bust”. He’s been a huge part of the Saints offense/return game thus far. Just as this team gets back Shockey and Colston, they lose him. Coming into this week, Drew Brees was completing 71% of his passes. 1 out of 4 of those completions were to Reggie Bush, who had nearly 7 receptions a game. Having Bush to check down to if the downfield options aren’t open has been a big factor in Brees’ success. Where does he go now? This team I was so high on last week I suddenly can see at 3-6 going into Kansas City.

Coming off of an embarrassing loss against Tampa, the Panthers came out and played the game they should play….a steady dose of Deangelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart. Steve Smith may be the flashy superstar on this offense but the heart of it is their two talented backs. It’s nice to be able to run the ball all day without giving either guy 20 carries. Panthers fans have to love it, fantasy fans…not so much.

Last season, I blasted Julius Peppers a lot. I don’t know why, but I just never thought he was as good as his salary says he is. I thought he blew outside containment a lot last season because he just wanted to get to the QB. He’s played much better this season and was a huge factor in this game. Even though he had only one sack, I bet he hurried Drew Brees seven or eight times. The big forced fumble he caused was a great play. Coming off of the left side of the offensive line, he was charging Brees at full speed. Brees was actually setting up for a Tight End screen to Jeremy Shockey on the right side. When Peppers saw Brees release the ball he didn’t even hesitate as he changed directions and ran down Shockey from behind before he could really get moving. The speed at which Peppers changed modes and got to the Tight End was unbelievable.

Of course, the rest of the Panthers defense is hardly a bunch of scrubs. As a unit they are giving up only 275 yards and 14 points a game. It’s an underrated unit that lacks any real big names outside of Peppers. They held a unit that was averaging 413 yards to 7 points on 323 yards. That’s impressive.

Statistical Notes – Drew Brees failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this season. Despite being fifth on the team in receptions with 14, Devery Henderson leads the team in receiving yards with 465…an incredible 33 yards per reception. Want some consistency? Steve Smith has caught six balls in each of the last four games for yardage totals of 96, 96, 112, and 122. Julius Peppers now has four sacks on the year. He had 2.5 all of last season.

Bears over Vikings or “Help Wanted: Special Teams Coach.”

Yikes! Two weeks after coming close to losing a game off of two Reggie Bush punt returns for touchdowns, the Vikings special teams were at it again. First, Punter Chris Kluwe simply drops a ball snapped perfectly to him and then he picks it up and tries to punt it. Obviously it was blocked, Bears touchdown. The funny part of it was after Kluwe’s punt was blocked he tried to kick it while it was on the ground. He probably could have fallen on the ball and saved a touchdown. Note to coaches: teach your kickers the rules of the game in case of disaster. Later in the game Charles Gordon fails to get out of the way of a punt that ricochets off him into the end zone. Touchdown Bears.

But wait! It gets better. The Vikings figured they could throw the ball on a Bears team that was missing it’s two solid corners Nate Vasher and Charles Tillman. Gus Frerotte throws four interceptions with guys like Trumain Mcbride and Zach Bowman prowling the secondary. Mcbride and Bowman had a combined contribution of 5 tackles on the season before this Sunday. Tell me again how Gus is better than Tarvaris Jackson?

The Vikings front four are imposing and have gotten pressure on quarterbacks often this year. The Bears came out with a great game plan. They knew that Matt Forte would have a rough time running on this team so Kyle Orton was going to have to make some plays. Early in the game it was three step drop, throw. Three Step Drop, throw. The Receivers were running a variety of short slants and outs designed to develop quickly. Kyle Orton’s efficiency is getting somewhat scary. Everyone, including Bears fans, thought the Bears pass offense was ignored to the point of neglect this offseason. Suddenly the decision not to go after a QB and to let Mushin Muhammed and Bernard Berrian walk doesn’t look so bad.

In 2006, when the Bears went to the Super Bowl, it seemed that crazy things happened every game and the ball bounced in their direction constantly. They had 44 turnovers that season. They are now sitting at 16 on the year and 14 in their last 5 games. Some of it is luck, but Bears players do a great job of always migrating towards the ball and taking advantage of foolish mistakes by the other team. The difference is, the offense for the 2008 group is far more competent. As a Packers fan, I’m seriously starting to worry about these guys.

Statistical Notes – Kyle Orton has thrown a touchdown in five straight games, and 2 or more TD’s in four of them. The Bears have had six different players (Desmond Clark, Brandon Lloyd x 2, Matt Forte, Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, and this week Marty Booker) lead the team in receiving yards for a game. Matt Forte has scored in 5 out of 7 games. Bernard Berrian had another good outing and now has 25 catches for 479 yards in his last five games. He has scored a touchdown in the last three. Adrian Peterson had his fourth 100 yard rushing week and is on pace for nearly 1600 yards. Vikings QB’s have 27 TD’s to 42 INT’s over the last three seasons.

Steelers over Bengals or “Seriously, did you even have to check this score?”

Actually, the Bengals made a game out of it until halftime, where they were down only 10-7. They drove 92 yards for a touchdown after drives of 4, -7, -2, 8, and 0 yards. They treated us to an encore in the second half with drives of 7, -9, and -8 yards. They failed to sack Ben Roethlisberger, who had been sacked 18 times in 5 games. They did allow Ryan Fitzpatrick to get pasted 7 times though.

Does anyone know how Marvin Lewis has managed to keep his job through this mess?

Statistical Notes – Mewelde Moore had his first 100 yard game since November 2005. He now has seven career touchdowns…three of which were in this game. James Harrison and Lamar Woodley have a combined 17 sacks in 6 games. Somehow in this mess, T.J. Houshmandzadeh has 46 catches for 456 yards. That puts him on pace for 122 catches and 1200 yards!

Titans over Chiefs or “Good Fantasy matchup: Whoever runs against the Chiefs”

For the second time this season, the Chiefs allowed a team to waltz into their stadium and rush for 300 yards. Chris Johnson and Lendale White spent the entire afternoon running into the secondary and beyond untouched.

Kansas City has two veteran players that were in the news this week. Tony Gonzalez wanted to be traded to a team that was at least a playoff contender. That is reasonable as Gonzalez at age 32 probably won’t be around to see the team rebuild itself. The Eagles, Giants, and Packers all were reportedly interested but a deal didn’t get done before the deadline and Gonzo remained a Chief. He could have sulked and pouted but instead he went out onto the field and played hard, despite the whipping his team was receiving. The Chiefs are lucky to have him as he sets an excellent example for the younger players.

Larry Johnson on the other hand, is not a good guy to have around this young locker room. He was involved in some nightclub skirmish where he allegedly spat in a woman’s face. Coupled with the fact he has been late to team meetings and even refused to leave the game when coaches tried to replace him with Kolby Smith makes me wonder why the Chiefs didn’t throw him out there for something as low as a 5^th or 6^th pick. There is the issue of his contract being huge and I wonder why they payed a 28 year old back big money when they knew they were going into rebuilding mode.

The Titans are the only undefeated team and have looked fantastic all season. Yet, they do not garner much attention. By this time last season, the media was slobbering all over the Colts and Patriots and talking about how great both teams were and how they could very well go a combined 31-1. As it turns out, the Patriots did go 16-0 and the Colts won an impressive 13 games. It’s highly unlikely that the Titans win every game but there is virtually no hype over them, probably because they win by the more “Old School” method of dominating defense and punishing running game. That type of play doesn’t seem to impress people as much as high powered aerial attacks.

Statistical Notes – The Chiefs are giving up an AVERAGE of 207 rushing yards per game. Tony Gonzalez just missed the 100 yard mark with 97 yards. This is a season high. He had five 100 yard games last season. Lendale White now has 8 touchdowns and has scored in 5 of 6 games. While White scores the touchdowns, Backfield mate Chris Johnson is on pace for nearly 1500 rushing yards. Albert Haynesworth has 6 sacks in 6 games.

Ravens over Dolphins or “Taming of the Wildcat.”

The Dolphins have been playing inspired football lately and Ronnie Brown has been spectacular in his role as “Quarterback”. This matchup was not good for them. The Ravens run defense is one of the stoutest in the league, making the Dolphins single wing formation uneffective. The Ravens have not allowed a 100 yard rushing performance this season and held Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to 43 yards combined.

The Dolphins front line on defense has also been surprisingly good, allowing only one 100 yard rusher (Thomas Jones, Week 1) in the first five weeks. They had a real hard time dealing with Willis Mcgahee on Sunday, whom strung together quite a few good gains. Joe Flacco who has had a few tough weeks in a row came back strong and most of it can be attributed to Derrick Mason. His numbers don’t necessarily reflect it, but Mason is playing as good of football as he has in his career. I’m amazed at how quick and agile he still is at age 34. Flacco is very lucky to have a veteran like Mason to lean on while he learns the NFL game.

Need more evidence as to Mason’s importance to his quarterback? Flacco completed 17 passes this Sunday. Only 7 went to wide receivers and out of those, six went to Derrick Mason. Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams just can’t get open consistently enough for Flacco to rely on.

Statistical Notes – Willis Mcgahee scored for only the second time in the last 8 games. He had touchdowns in seven games in a row prior to that. Dating back to 2006, one time reliable fantasy tight end Todd Heap has one score in his last 16 games. He also has only 1 game of more than 60 yards in that stretch. Pittsburgh castoff Joey Porter chalked up two more sacks to bring his total to 8.5 on the season. His previous career high is 10.5. “Who Dat” running back Patrick Cobbs got involved in the offense again and has 8 catches for 202 yards in the last two games.

15 Teams eliminated from playoff contentions:

I promised to give a list of those I am considering out of the playoffs by this week. See, I think only one team in the last four years made it to the playoffs after a 3-4 start. It’s a daunting task. I actually cannot remember who that team is at the moment, either, so it might be zero teams. Sorry fans, if you see your team on the list you may want to start thinking about next year.

Then again, I’ve been absolutely horrible at predictions so the playoff pool might be made up of half of these teams.

The Obvious: Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinatti Bengals, St. Louis Rams.

The middle: Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins.

The ones that will break your heart: New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens.

The Shocker: Dallas Cowboys

It’s a pretty big leap to say that the Cowboys will not make it, but I promised 15 teams and I am going to deliver. I don’t think the East is going to get three teams into the playoffs and the Cowboys are staggering now. They have to play a really tough Tampa Bay team this week and then on the road against the Giants. They are pretty beat up as a team and worst of all, They will either be lining up Brad Johnson under center or Tony Romo will a broken pinky. I think some people are questioning Romo’s toughness but in reality that finger is too important for Romo’s ability to get zip on the ball. He would not be effective.

To be fair, this slot I would have given to the Chargers had the Broncos won Monday night. With the division leader at 4-3 and not looking very good, the Chargers might not need to win a lot of games to get in. The Cowboys on the other hand, do.

Giants over 49ers or “More beatings for J.T. O’Sullivan!”

The 49ers continue to slide, losing their fourth game in a row. A big reason for their inability to win is the offensive line failing to adequately protect the quarterback. J.T. O’Sullivan getting sacked and hurried has led to a string of turnovers (Three in each of the last four games) that have been devastating to the team. He hit the ground 6 times this Sunday and has been sacked 29 times on the year. He is sacked 13% of the time he drops back to pass. That is not good.

The 49ers offensive line has been decent at run blocking this season with Frank Gore averaging 5 yards per carry coming into this game. The Giants defense overwhelmed them on this front, also. Gore only carried 11 times and failed to make it out of the backfield on five of those attempts. One scary thought about the Giants defense is the fact that they are so young and will most likely get even better than they are now. 15 Giants players lined up on the defensive side of the ball on Sunday. Out of those players, 2 of them are 31, 2 of them are 26, and the rest are 25 and under. I don’t know the contract status of some of these young guys, but if the Giants can keep the unit more or less together, they will be contenders for quite some time.

49ers sixth round WR Josh Morgan had some decent receiving numbers, but it was another play that impressed me. Down by 10 in the fourth quarter J.T. O’Sullivan was sacked and fumbled at around the 49ers 15 yard line. Justin Tuck tried to scoop the ball up and run in for the score but was unable to keep a hold of it. The ball bounced into the end zone and Morgan and several Giants were in pursuit. Instead of diving at the ball or trying to scoop it up, Morgan kicked the ball out the back of the end zone. The Giants get a safety and go up 12, keeping the game to a two score contest still. Had a Giant gotten to the ball, it would have been 17 points and a three score game. In the end, it didn’t matter but I love to see players…especially rookies…make heads up calls in the heat of the moment.

Statistical Notes – Brandon Jacobs is starting to get a nose for the end zone. He has six scores in the last three games. J.T. O’Sullivan has turned the ball over 12 times in 4 games. The 49ers have six different players that have led the team in Receiving in the first seven games (Frank Gore, Delanie Walker, Isaac Bruce x2, Arnaz Battle, Vernon Davis, and Josh Morgan). Very frustrating from a fantasy perspective. Eli Manning had his lowest yardage total (161) since December 23^rd. Patrick Willis continues to get to the ball carrier and has 35 tackles, a sack, and 4 passes defended in the last three games.

Mike Nolan Fired or “FINALLY”

I hate to revel in any human being losing their job, but for at least 16 weeks I have been calling for Mike Nolan’s head, due in large part for his ignoring of my “Gore’s Razor” theory (name based on the old adage “Occam’s Razor” which in its simplest form states “The easiest solution is probably the correct one.” I realize that Nolan is not wholly responsible for play calling, but as head coach enough of it is. The 49ers only won 14 of 37 games in the last three years. They went 14-1 when Frank Gore carried the ball 19 times or more, 0-22 when Gore carried the ball less than 19 times. Instead of giving their 4.8 career YPC runner the ball more often, they liked to run crackpot pass wacky schemes with marginal Quarterbacks and terrible pass protection. You can argue that they were behind and needed to move the ball quickly, but they averaged 5.1 yards per pass attempt and that number would decline sharply if it was yards per drop back. They were likely to gain more yards just running the ball straight ahead than they were passing the ball!

Rams over Cowboys or “Things fall apart.”

After a hot start where they beat three teams that were considered preseason playoff contenders the Cowboys have lost 3 of their last four in increasingly miserable fashion. They lost Tony Romo for a few weeks with a broken little finger, they lost Felix Jones, they lost Pacman Jones to idiocy, and now have lost Roy (Defense) Williams. Terrell Owens looks to be on the verge of a meltdown.

This week I read columns by several pundits talking about the difference between the Patriots and Cowboys backup QB approach. They made fun of the Patriots for having an unproven young player like Matt Cassell be their only backup plan while praising the Cowboys for having a QB the caliber of Brad Johnson in place to backup Tony Romo. I thought to myself “How can a 40 year old who last saw action in 2006 when he threw for only 9 TD’s compared to 15 INT’s be a good backup plan?” Johnson completed only 50% of his passes, threw 3 picks, and 1 garbage time touchdown. Good plan.

Dallas came out on the first drive with a good plan. They handed Marion Barber the ball on 7 of the 10 plays and marched into the end zone. Barber took only 11 more handoffs the rest of the game. This was a classic example of a team choosing to try to pass to get points back quicker instead of staying with a more conservative plan. It’s an even poorer idea considering your choices were strapping young stud running back or rusty old quarterback. Having Brad Johnson throwing the ball around compounded the problems.

The Cowboys had no answer for Steven Jackson all day though. In recent weeks I have praised Steven Jackson for his hard play even though the Rams don’t have much going for them, suggesting that as long as you still have guys that are willing to play hard good things might happen. Of course, good blocking and good play calling are a big reason for Jackson’s huge game. The Rams set up in “Overload” formation a few times on Sunday, putting two tackles and a guard on one side of the line of scrimmage. This type of formation has been popping up here and there over the last two seasons. It seems quite obvious that the runner will be following the loaded side, but too often defenses need to compensate. You would think defensive coordinators would have spent at least some time explaining to their players how to shift when the offense lines up like this.

Roy Williams (Offense) who was obtained by the Cowboys this week, failed to catch a pass. I have always liked Roy Williams and feel he’s at least a top 12 wide receiver. However, a 1^st, 3^rd, and a 6^th is a pretty high price to pay for Williams and a 7^th. The Cowboys have recently dropped a lot of money into Williams, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, and Tony Romo. I’m starting to think that Jerry Jones thinks that either A. Terrell Owens has lost a step and may not be considered an elite receiver by the start of next season or B. Terrell Owens is on the verge of having a gigantic meltdown. Owens has been yelling at all different team mates over this poor stretch.

I think the Pacman Jones experiment is over in Dallas, which really thins their depth at Corner. The guy clearly has some issues. His “Bodyguards” were there to make sure he didn’t do anything stupid. I don’t know the details of the scuffle but I’d assume said Bodyguard tried to do just that and Pacman flew off the handle. The Cowboys gave Adam Jones a great chance to get back into the league and realize his potential. Hiring people to watch him day and night to provide guidance was a good plan. The guy obviously has some serious behavioral problems and probably should just be suspended for good.

Statistical Notes – Steven Jackson is about as hot as they come right now, with 475 total yards and 4 TD’s in the last 3 games. Demarcus Ware had one sack in every game this season except for this one….when he had three. He has nine sacks on the season. Terrell Owens had 7 100 yard games last season. He has zero thus far this year. Marion Barber has at least 100 total yards and a touchdown in 5 of 7 games. Are there people who still think he can’t be a full time back? Jason Witten has caught 6 or more passes in all but one game. His yards were down this game but he is still on pace for 100 catches and 1000 yards.

Texans over Lions or “Texans Plan to distribute Valium to fans for fourth quarter of games.”

The Jaguars and Texans put up 20 points in the 4^th to keep it even. The Sage Rosenfels meltdown kept in the Colts game led to a devastating loss. Matt Schaub ran across the goal line as time expired to beat the Dolphins. After falling behind 21 points early, the Lions were a stop and a touchdown away from a fourth quarter comeback. If anything, the end of Texans games have been exciting. This team is a few minutes of football away from having beat the Jaguars and Colts and looking at 4-2. They are better than their record indicates.

I do have to wonder…up by 18 with about 11 minutes to go and the Lions backed against their end zone, how does Demarcus Faggins end up in man coverage with no safety help against the Lions best (And practically only!) weapon? I don’t want to say the word “Prevent” but if you are up by 3 scores with less than a quarter to play don’t you make sure that nobody is going to get behind your secondary? Calvin Johnson ran right past Faggins and caught a pass in stride for the easiest 96 yard touchdown you’ll see.

In case you have not noticed by now, the Texans offense is starting to look pretty darn good. Fantasy players are starting to turn their eyes towards the reasonably young and talented set of players they have. They are averaging 370 yards per game. If you just look at the last four (They had a rough time against the Steelers and Titans in the first two games) weekends, they are moving the ball 420 yards per game. The thing that has killed them thus far has been turnovers, coughing it up 13 times before this Sunday when they only lost the ball once. Granted they were playing the Lions…

The Texans got Dunta Robinson back this week. I didn’t really get any good looks at him but I would think it will take him a few games to get back into game form. Robinson has been a solid corner before suffering a major knee injury last season. I don’t anticipate him taking over as a starting cornerback this year as an injury that severe has lasting repercussions, but as a nickel back he should be a vast improvement over Faggins.

Kevin Smith finally got more carries than Rudi Johnson. The Lions need to find a way to get this guy more touches. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry…a number not seen in Detriot for some time.

Statistical Notes – I’ve been talking up Andre Johnson for most of the time he’s been healthy the last two seasons, and boy is he delivering now. He has four 100 yard games in six tries and three double digit reception games. He’s on pace for 100 catches and 1450 yards. He’s one of the best wideouts in the NFL but playing for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs…ever…..he stays a bit under the radar. Steve Slaton has been a pleasant surprise for Texans fans and Fantasy Waiver wire scouts. He’s plugging away at 4.8 YPC and has scored in 4 of the last 5 games. Calvin Johnson is on his way to stud WR status as he is on pace for 1200 yards and 10 TD’s. Converted safety Mike Furrey had 6 catches for 89 yards. He’s been easy to forget with Johnson and Roy Williams around, but he can get open and had 100 catches two seasons ago.

Packers over Colts or “Who is that guy and what did he do with Peyton Manning?”

I’m not going to mince words. Peyton Manning looked TERRIBLE against the Packers this weekend. Most people (Myself included) thought that the Colts destroying a tough Ravens defense meant that Manning and his crew were finally clicking and that they would shred the depleted Packers secondary. Instead, Manning looked about as bad as I’ve ever seen him play. He was way off the mark on about 6 throws and was forcing balls into well covered receivers. One of the interceptions was a ball that probably should have been caught by Reggie Wayne, but the second one in the end zone should never have been thrown as three Packers were covering his target. Both balls went the other way for touchdowns.

The Packers defense played a very physical game and may have gotten away with a few close pass interference calls, but Manning seemed to want to argue with the refs over a non call on every incomplete pass thrown. He was obviously frustrated but I think this took his focus and intensity, some of his best qualities, out of the game.

Charles Woodson is having an incredible season. He has not been practicing most of the year and is allegedly in a lot of pain. He really locked down Reggie Wayne and batted down at last three balls. Wayne didn’t register his second catch until there was only 3:30 minutes to go in the game. If not for that garbage time grab, Wayne would have been held to one catch for only the second time since 2001. As is, this was Wayne’s least productive game since 2005.

In all, I was extremely pleased with the Packers defensive performance. They played very physical, players were swarming towards the ball on every play, and finally tackled well. Obviously they have been missing some key players, but they had looked unable to stop anyone. The bye week gives Atari Bigby and Al Harris two weeks to get healed up. If they could get those two back and play with the same intensity they did against the Colts, this defense could turn things around.

For the second straight week, the Packers have been committed to trying to get their ground game moving. Ryan Grant had been getting the ball about 15 times over the first five games but has 30+ in each of the last two. He’s still only going at a 3.4 YPC clip, but running so much is bound to wear down a defense and open up the passing attack a little.

Statistical Notes – Peyton Manning has as many muli-interception outings this season than he had in his previous 38 games. The Packers defense does help put points on the board. They have 6 Punt/INT returns for touchdowns in seven games. Aaron Rodgers has scored a touchdown passing or running in every game, totaling 12 passing and 3 rushing. After scoring a touchdown in the last six regular season games last season, it took Ryan Grant until week 7 to score. The Colts have lost an average of 3.5 games per year over the last five years. They have three losses already in six games and are off to their worst start since 2001.

Patriots over Broncos or “Maybe 3 games was a little early to crown the Broncos….”

Last weekend, the Patriots were on the verge of being written off when they were absolutely destroyed by the Chargers. They came in and just outplayed the Broncos. The Broncos have a lot of problems, the biggest probably being the fact that teams have finally figured out that they cannot stop the run. Castoff Sammy Morris, some guy named BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and “Scatback” Kevin Faulk helped the Patriots to 257 rushing yards and a 6.8 YPC average. It’s really not so good when guys who would struggle to make NFL rosters are looking unstoppable.

Denver running back Andre Hall probably wants to make himself invisible for a little white. 2 carries, -7 yards, and 2 fumbles is certain to raise the ire of Mike Shanahan. Michael Pittman had been running very well early in the game. He was taken out once because he was shaken up, once because he was winded giving Hall is opportunities. Oops.

Jay Cutler is obviously missing Brandon Stokley and Tony Sheffler. Eddie Royal is a pretty good player, but not good enough to take double and triple coverage off of Brandon Marshall. The Broncos got desperate enough to get some people open downfield that Cutler tried to force the ball into coverage on a deep throw to 3^rd string tight end Nate Jackson.

I have to say I’m impressed by Randy Moss. I would have expected him to be skulking around by this point but even before he got into the end zone twice he looked really fired up and was cheering on team mates on both sides of the ball. I think Moss has the potential to be the interim team leader while Tom Brady is out.

Statistical Notes – Wes Welker continues to catch passes and is on pace for 111 grabs this season. Sammy Morris now has TD’s in 4 of 6 games. After opening up with 8TD’s and 2 INT’s, Jay Cutler has a pedestrian 5 and 5 over the last four games. Brandon Marshall has gone 3 weeks without a 100 yard game or a score. Over that span he has caught as many balls as he did the first week of the season. The Broncos defense is giving up nearly 400 yards per game. They have 59 points in the last 4 weeks after opening with 114 the first three.

Redskins over Browns or “Whatever is going on in Cleveland is strange.”

This Column is running longer than desired and I needed to cut some games but I want to mention a few things here….

Cleveland is a strange franchise. The hospitalization of Kellen Winslow Jr. was strange. I figured something more than a stomach flu was going down when he was in there for several days. As it turns out, he had a Staph (more on Staph Below) infection. Even crazier, Staph has apparently been a problem for the Browns.

The Browns organization did not even want to tell ANYONE, including Kellen’s team mates that Winslow had been infected with Staph. This is something that goes beyond football. It’s a good bet that the Browns medical team is not using proper sanitary techniques in dealing with the disease. Winslow spoke out publically about this and has been suspended for one game for it. That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. This is something that transcends football. Kellen Winslow, you absolutely did the right thing. Staph is a dangerous thing and if the team is not addressing the problem properly or does not know how to, someone needs to step in and look. The Players safety has to be the first priority here.

Statistical Notes – Clinton Portis has carried the ball 20 times or more in every game this season. He has four straight 100 yard performances and has scored in five of the last six games. He is averaging 5.0 YPC and is on pace for 1975 total yards and 15 TD’s. Jason Campbell still has not thrown an interception since December 2^nd of 2007. The teams combined to punt 13 times in the first 14 possessions. The remaining possession was a missed field goal. Derek Anderson has failed to complete 50% of his passes in 3 of 6 games, including completing a mere 37.8% on two separate occasions. Jamal Lewis is on pace to break 1000 yards for the 7^th time in his 8 year career.

Staph Comments:

For those of you who do not know what Staph is….it’s full name is Staphylococcus Aureus. The biggest problem with Staph is that it is probably the most hearty bacteria, with strains (MRSA “Methicillin Resistant” or worse VRSA “Vancomycin Resistant” for example) that can’t be touched by most known antibiotics. We keep trying to stay ahead of staph and it keeps evolving. A big reason? Staph outbreaks are very common in hospitals and nursing homes. Health Care providers in the United States don’t take Staph as seriously as those in other developed nations do. Staph patients should be quarantined during the course of the treatment and yet often share a room (including bathroom facilities!) with non-Staph patients. For the time being, it is treatable, so they figure if someone does get it, they will treat it. The more cases of Staph the more chances for it to evolve and become immune to treatments. This lazy practice could someday very well lead to a pandemic that scientists have to race for find new drugs to defeat.

Carnage Guesses on Games:

I’m really bad at this. It’s pretty amazing how difficult it is to call games even without using the spread. After I thought things over, I had wished I went Bears over Vikings which would have brought me up to an almost respectable 9-5, but I made my own bed to lie down in and had an 8-6 week. My hot first three weeks is keeping me afloat right now and I am 63-38 on the year. Colts over Packers was only a 1 point spread so it was not such a crazy upset pick, but I have hit three “Crazy Upset picks” in a row.

Bills over Chargers

Saints over Panthers

Vikings over Bears

Steelers over Bengals

Titans over Chiefs

Dolphins over Ravens

Giants over 49ers

Cowboys over Rams

Texans over Lions

Jets over Raiders

Redskins over Browns

Bucs over Seahawks

Broncos over Patriots

Crazy Upset Pick – Packers over Cowboys.

Of course, I’m going to continue to make a fool out of myself and give it another go. Here are next week’s picks.

1. Baltimore over Oakland
2. Bucs over Cowboys
3. Redskins over Lions
4. Patriots over Rams
5. Saints over Chargers
6. Jets over Chiefs
7. Eagles over Falcons
8. Jaguars over Browns
9. Texans over Bengals
10. Steelers over Giants
11. 49ers over Seahawks
12. Titans over Colts

Crazy upset Pick! Cardinals over Panthers. My Saints over Panthers pick was a bust and I’ll admit the Panthers are a good team, but the Cardinals are better than people think. They have actual attitude on defense (Just ignore that Jets game) and are getting Anquan Boldin back. The Cardinals are going to come close to getting a first round bye.

Falcons over Bears or “The most exciting 17 seconds of football you’ll see.”

Facing 3^rd and 10 with from the Atlanta 17 with 17 seconds left, Kyle Orton finds cornerback Chris Houston staring off at…who knows what and fires the ball to Rashied Davis who makes a great grab to come down in bounds for the touchdown. It’s one of those perfect moments. You marched your team downfield 78 yards to throw the game winning TD….only you left 11 seconds on the clock. With six seconds left the Falcons Michael Jenkins runs about the only route that gets them far enough to be in field goal range but is still short enough to take only 5 seconds. Bears Safety Mike Brown is playing 10 yards behind Jenkins at this point and doesn’t break hard towards the receiver when he sees the ball released. C’mon guys! You haven’t won the game yet! D these guys up and get it over with. One second left on the clock, out trots Jason Elam and the Falcons win the game.

Elam “Redeemed” himself by hitting this field goal after shanking a shorter one earlier in the half. He’s 38 years old, kicked two 48 yard field goals (One the game winner), one 41 yarder, and two from inside 40. He’s 16/17 on the season. He is putting an average of 8 points per game on the board (not counting extra points). Nice kicking Elam.

I think a lot of pundits will be questioning Lovie Smith’s decision to go for it on 4^th and goal from the 1 in the fourth quarter. I applaud his effort. He showed his offense he believed in them, put the ball in the hands, and told them to go make something happen. If they would have scored a touchdown and went on to win, Lovie would have been called a genius. Now sports reporters will be questioning him all week. The only thing I would have done different is to make sure Matt Forte’s hand were on the ball on both 3^rd and 4^th down.

This game featured two really good looking offensive rookies. His pass catching out of the backfield has been a huge asset. I still don’t like how he upright he runs….I think he’ll pay for that someday…but he’s a fine player. Matt Ryan is looking like the real deal these past two weeks. This game was impressive because he didn’t have Michael Turner to fall back on. The Bears defense absolutely smothered Turner. I think he was dropped behind the line of scrimmage five times.

Statistical Notes – Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards in his sixth NFL outing. The last high round QB pick of the Falcons, Michael Vick, took 22 games before he threw for 300 yards and only did it twice in 74 games. Of course, I’ve got big money riding on the fact that Matt Ryan never rushes for 1000…. Matt Forte leads the Bears with 27 receptions. The guy he replaced, Cedric Benson, had 26 catches in his three years with the Bears. Forte is on pace for 1765 total yards. Roddy White has 29 catches for 470 yards and 3 TD’s the last four games. Meaningless stat – Michael Turner has 445 yards and 6 TD’s in odd numbered weeks, 152 yards and 0 TD’s in even numbered weeks.

Rams over Redskins or “Exhibit A of where the “Any Given Sunday” cliché came from.”

Talk about a letdown, the Redskins just won four in a row against .500 or better ballclubs including two road games in the toughest division in football. Along comes a team that has looked liked serious contenders for 0-16 and knocks them off. By the numbers, the Redskins dominated this game. Yards: 368 to 200. First downs: 22 to 8. Yards per carry: 5.8 to 2.9. Penalties: 7-53 to 10 for 79….but then….FUMBLES: 3 to 1.

Chris Cooley is a great Tight End and he doesn’t shy away from contact, but if you are going to run into a pile of defenders you had better start putting both hands on the ball. When four sets of arms are slapping all around that ball, you are going to lose it if you don’t secure it. Offensive linemen need to be aware of the game situation in the event that something wild happens. In this case, veteran guard Pete Kendell had the ball fall into his hands at the Rams 20 yard line with about 19 seconds on the clock. The likelihood that Kendell romps into the end zone is not good. The best he could hope for is to get to 2 or 3 yards past the line of scrimmage and that still takes time off the clock so the skins likelihood of getting a shot at the end zone is diminished. Bat the ball down! It stops the clock and preserves the timeout! Instead, fumble, going the other way, and the game swings (likely) at least 10 points.

Carlos Rodgers has been impressive of late. He’s held Torry Holt, Deshaun Jackson, Terrell Owens, and Anquan Boldin to minimal games. Yeah, I know that Terrell Owens did have 7 catches, 71 yards, and a TD….but that counts as holding him nowadays. Rodgers broke up two passes bound for Holt, including one that saved a huge gain…and possibly a touchdown.

There isn’t much to say about the Rams except that they are Lucky that the Redskins shot themselves in the foot several times this week. Oh yeah, and the best choice they made recently was to pay Steven Jackson. I’ve mentioned this before but the guy goes out and plays hard and with a lot of emotion even though he plays for a pretty bad team. With how pathetic the passing game has looked, I can’t even imagine how bad the entire offense would look without him.

Statistical Notes – Steven Jackson has at least 100 total yards in the last three games and in 10 of his last 13. Believe it not, but he’s on pace for 1900+ total yards. Clinton Portis has at least 20 carries in his last nine games. He has 949 yards (4.6 YPC) and 10 TD’s in that span. Jason Campell has not thrown an interception since December 2^nd. Chris Cooley now leads the Redskins with 30 catches.

Buccaneers over Panthers or “He’s not Dunn yet! (Ha, Ha. You can laugh now. Really.)”

For weeks I’ve been imploring Jon Gruden to give up his sudden bizarre urge to use an Arena League playbook. Sure! They were winning games but they were giving the ball aware a lot through the air and have actually had a higher Yards per carry average than yards per completion in a few of the games. This week, they went back to their 2007 game plan and ran the ball often. The result? Total domination of a 4-1 divisional opponent. The Bucs jumped ahead early to 14-0 and took the Panthers out of their game (which also happens to be running the football) and the rout was on. The game wasn’t interesting past the middle of the third quarter.

Earnest Graham fantasy owners sobbed and Warrick Dunn fantasy owners cheered as the Bucs came out most of the day in a two back set…with Graham in the Fullback/Leading blocker role and Dunn in the primary back role. It’s not a change that I expected to see but it was pretty effective today and is one that just may stick for awhile.

The Tampa secondary and linebacker corps really has been playing quite well in recent weeks. It seemed to me that EVERYONE was doubled covered on every play. Jake Delhomme wasn’t facing that much pressure yet barely managed to complete 50% of his passes and threw three INT’s. Of course, Tampa has been uncanny at creating turnovers this season with 13 in just 6 games.

Statistical Notes – The Tampa Defense has scored in four out of six games. Jake Delhomme hasn’t thrown 3 INT’s in a game since October, 2005. Warrick Dunn has passed Tiki Barber to become the 20^th all time leading rusher. Brian Griese has thrown as many interceptions in four games as Jeff Garcia has in 16 dating back to last season.

Evolution of NFL Fandom – From Local Team, To Fantasy Team, to All teams

I am not trying to suggest that somehow my methods of viewing football games make me a better fan than anyone else, but I will say that my current state of NFL viewing has given me the most enjoyment out of the sport. Here is the deal. Most of the people I watch NFL games with are passing around laptops and checking scores. At least half of them have one game page open….their fantasy page. They fuss and fret over every single point put on the board with no real clue as far as how these points appeared in game context.

About three years ago I shut off the fantasy page during Sunday afternoon. I know who my players are and cheer when they do well. I don’t even look at who my opponent has until right before the Sunday Night game (I treat the Sunday and Monday Night games a little differently). That way, I am free to enjoy watching all players perform without wishing any of them ill. I am a Packers fan first, but there are also individual teams and players that I also just like watching play the game. I am not a Jaguars “Fan” because I like Maurice Jones-Drew (I do have him on a fantasy team) and I am certainly NOT a Cowboys fan just because I like watching Marion Barber (whom I don’t have on my fantasy team.) My method seems to enable me to enjoy the games for games and still cheer for my players. I’ve almost got my wife turned over to the actual box scores/game stats from the fantasy scores and she is really getting more into the actual game instead of just the fantasy aspect of things.

Saints over Raiders or “Drew Brees is really really good when he’s on.”

The craziest story of this game is the New Orleans defense locking down another strong running opponent. Last week they held Adrian Peterson to 32 yard on 21 carries. The previous week they held the Frank Gore led 49ers to under 100 yards rushing. Back in 2006 when the Saints had their fantastic 10-6, NFC Championship game season they were 23^rd in rushing yards allowed and 31^st in rushing yards per carry allowed. The offense is getting healthy with Deuce Mccallister getting some reps, Marques Colston returning, and eventually Jeremy Shockey coming back. This offense will be better than the 2006 version. If the defense can maintain…..look out.

Three Sunday’s ago the Raiders were coming off a pretty impressive win against the Chiefs and leading the Bills in the fourth quarter with a 2-1 record within their grasp. Since then, they blew two fourth quarter leads, fired their coach, and got destroyed in New Orleans. Jamarcus Russell looked terrible. Don’t think for a second that the Al Davis revolving door at coach won’t have a negative impact on this kid. Do things this way! No! Do them that way! Wait, Someone else will be telling you what to do soon so just do whatever!

Watching Drew Brees this weekend I have to wonder why he doesn’t get his name mentioned more when it comes to the top quarterbacks in the league today. In the first half of that game, I was convinced that he would not throw and incomplete pass. Every play he found a man open, even if he had to go through three or four reads to get there. He loves throwing the deep ball and is quite good at it, but he can dink and dunk away with the best of them.

Statistical Notes – Drew Brees has completed 61.7% of his passes in all but three of the last 22 games. Since week 6 of last season, Brees has 39 TD’s to 15 INT’s. Reggie Bush is on pace for 110 catches this season. Even with Marques Colston back in the lineup, Lance Moore caught 7 balls. He has 26 catches in the last four games. In the three games since the Raiders ran all over Kansas City for 300 yards, they have only 255 total rushing yards. Tight End Zach Miller in the only Raiders play with a double digit number of receptions.

Vikings over Lions or “Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse…”

Perhaps for the first time this season, you actually have the momentum. After driving almost the length of the field, you get the Vikings super stud running back Adrian Peterson to cough up the ball. You are deep in your own territory, but you prevented the Vikings from scoring first. Shotgun formation, your QB drops back, and back…and..uhh…he’s running out of bounds. Seriously, this play was just surreal. Nobody, including Dan Orlovsky, himself seemed to know he was running out of bounds. Jared Allen had that “I can’t STILL be having Detox symptoms” look on his face as Orlovsky kept running in the back of the end zone and no whistles were blowing.

I’m pretty sure that is the moment that Roy Williams ran straight to the sidelines and called his agent to see if there was any interest in him. He must have been absolutely giddy to learn that he was going to Cowboys, after playing for at team that has won 21 games in his 4 ½ year career. It’s going to come as a shock to him when he finds out that teams play football in January! Seriously though, the Lions did the absolute right thing in trading him. No way was he going to be a Lion in 2009, and the team needs lots of help everywhere. Getting a 1^st, 3^rd, and 6^th round pick for a guy that had only 10 games left for you is a huge steal. Look at it this way…with him gone also goes the reminder of the days of Joey Harrington, Mike Williams, and Charles Rogers.

Speaking of Lions draft picks, why isn’t Kevin Smith getting more carries? You have a young runner with a great deal of talent that has not coughed up the ball, is better catching balls out of the backfield, and is averaging 4.6 YPC and you have a 29 year old has-been averaging over a half yard less per carry, isn’t that great out of the backfield, and has fumbled the ball. Whom do you play more? Seriously, after Kevin Smith busted out for a fifty yard gain in the second quarter, they didn’t let him run the ball again. Only in Detroit is success punished!

Even with the Lions falling apart, the Vikings had a hard time dealing with them even on their home turf. The Vikings turned the ball over three times, allowed Gus Frerotte to be sacked five times, and had 7 penalties for 99 yards. Adrian Peterson coughed up the ball twice himself on decent Vikings drives. Rushing for 125 yards doesn’t mean a thing if you can’t hold onto the ball. He is fumbling once every 57 touches in his career. Other top backs are at 93 (Clinton Portis), 185 (Michael Turner), 70 (Frank Gore), 0 out of 154 (Matt Forte), 70 (Marion Barber), 116 (Larry Johnson), and 118 (Ladainian Tomlinson). Backs have been broken out of the “Fumbler” mold before, Tiki Barber in particular. The Vikings need to work with Peterson on this before he gets that far.

Statistical Notes – Bernard Berrian has 16 catches for 319 yards and 2 TD’s in the last three games. After being #1 last season, the Vikings have fallen back to the pack and are averaging 4.2 YPC. Kevin Williams had four sacks on Sunday. His highest season total in the last four years is 5 sacks. The Lions are averaging a pitiful 10 points per game the last three weeks. The team has nine sacks on the season, five of them were against the tough Vikings offensive line this week. Calvin Johnson is on pace for 1200 yards and 10 TDs.

Texans over Dolphins or “Just fall down!”

When defensive players pick off or fumble a football, they have a rare opportunity to actually dance In the end zone. The Texans Eugene Wilson intercepted a tipped pass at midfield and had delusions of grandeur. If you fall down you give the offense back the ball with 3:04 left in the game with the Dolphins having one time out. Worst case scenario is they get the ball back with under two minutes, zero timeouts, pinned deep in their own territory. Nope, Wilson runs for it and gives Miami the ball back leading to a rather bizarre series of events to end the game.

The Wildcat struck again, this time with a completely different look than we have seen. Ronnie Brown took the snap and handed the ball off to Ricky Williams. Ricky Williams took the ball towards the sidelines and flipped it back to the forgotten Chad Pennington. Although the Wildcat has been in effect for three weeks and the Texans certainly explored the looks the formation can give you, they looked absolutely baffled by this turn of events and 11 defenders were standing around not sure what to make of the play. In the meantime, Patrick Cobbs (????) was streaking downfield for a big Touchdown. I’m still a little confused why nobody has gone and laid a big hit on Pennington. That would probably put an end to the Wildcat real quickly.

You have to be impressed by the Texans offense. Despite turning the ball over three times, they really moved the ball at will against a Dolphins D that held the Patriots and Chargers to 215 and 202 yards respectively. Despite having to fight for this one until the last second, I do think the Texans are a better team than their 1-4 record suggests. Of course, their first four games were against playoff teams from last season. Having their next two games at home against the Lions and Bengals could help that record a bit more. They have a tough schedule ahead of them overall and play in too tough of a division for me to seriously see them making the playoffs.

Statistical Notes – Andre Johnson had his second huge week in a row. He’s on pace for 108 catches and 1560 total yards. Matt Schaub has 686 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INT’s in his last two games. Mario Williams has six sacks in five games and 16 in his last 13. I think it’s safe to lift the bust tag off him now. Patrick Cobbs had 86 yards in his three year career before having 138 on Sunday. Ronnie Brown now has a touchdown in 4 straight games and is on pace for 22 for the season. Ricky Williams found the end zone for the first time in 1015 days.

Jaguars over Broncos or “Going up, Going down.”

Three weeks ago we were looking at a 1-2 Jaguars team that needed a miracle finish to beat the Colts and prevent an 0-3 start. The Broncos were sitting at 3-0, scoring 38 points a game, and looking like they could be the team to beat. Since then, the Jaguars have learned to get back to their punishing ground game and teams have remembered that the Broncos have a hard time stopping the run. Now the Jaguars are back to 3-3 and have a relatively easy next three games against Cleveland, Cincinatti, and Detroit.

The First drive of the game looked like we were once again going to see the Jay Cutler show. 7/7 for 67 yards and one rush for 8 yards. The Broncos went 80 yards and a touchdown. They would get the ball back five plays later on a hit that took Fred Taylor out of the game. The Broncos were angry about some calls later in the game but I am puzzled that there was not a penalty on this play. Fred Taylor caught the ball and Nate Webster came up and pasted him on the facemask with his helmet. Again we see officials failing to call a personal foul on a hit that injures a player. Roger Goddell has insisted that the league was going to take care to protect its players this year. Well…start protecting them! A prolonged injury to Fred Taylor would be devastating to this team. Maurice Jones-Drew CAN play every down but he’s been more effective with fresh legs.

Fumbles were a huge part of the games this week and this one was no different. On the play directly after the Fred Taylor hit, we see Jay Cutler doing the same thing that I chastised Sage Rosenfels for last week…..scrambling left with the ball swinging in his right hand. Jay Cutler was passed the line of scrimmage by the time the ball was stripped. It’s time to give up the pretense that you intend to throw and either tuck and run or get down. That ball hanging freely towards the center of the field is an invitation for a strip.

The Broncos had 3^rd and 1 at the Jacksonville 30 near the end of the first half. Incomplete pass. 4^th and 1. Stopped for no gain. I admire going for it on 4^th and 1, but I have to question it in this instance. Kicker Matt Prater has been excellent this year kicking the ball from as far as 56 yards. This was well within his range. To go into the locker at halftime with the scored tied DESPITE turning it over 3 times would be very demoralizing for the Jaguars. Instead, the Jaguars got a big emotional stop and came out of the locker room fired up and scored two touchdowns in the third.

Jay Cutler looked like a better quarterback earlier in the season. Brandon Marshall had a big first drive but wasn’t that effective afterwards. Cutler kept trying to force the ball to him when he was well covered. It’s good when your stud receiver is open all day and making plays. It’s bad when you are using him as a crutch. Spread the ball around like you were doing earlier in the season!

Statsitical Notes – Brandon Marshall grabbed nine balls to give him 43 catches on the season. He’s on pace for 114 catches and 1400 yards. 33 year old Michael Pittman gave the Broncos their first 100 yard rushing performance in 10 weeks. I’m going to go out on a limb and say there have not been many weekends in NFL history where 2 33 old or older backs put up 100 yards. Pittman also leads the Broncos with 4 TD’s. Maurice Jones-Drew is finding the end zone again and has 5 TD’s in the last 5 games. After having 1 TD and 4 INT’s in the first four games, David Garrard is back to protecting the ball and has 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s in the last 3.

Cardinals over Cowboys or “Danger: Terrell Owens meltdown timer commencing.”

Oh this was a rough game for the Cowboys. Tony Romo broke a finger and is out a month. Pacman Jones got into a fight with his bodyguard (?!?!?! You can’t make this stuff up. Seriously. You are trying to beat up the guy that is supposed to PROTECT YOU??? Oh boy.) and is suspended for four weeks. T.O. is yelling at offensive linemen. Worst of all? Owens has only 6 catches for 103 yards in the last two weeks….and you can trust me when I tell you that 40 year old Brad Johnson isn’t going to light it up. Jerry Jones had a plan though, as he always seems to. He’s bringing in a guy who should A. Take some of the double coverage away from Owens and B. Be insurance for the team in case Owens goes ballistic and C. Provides Tony Romo with a high quality WR for years to come.

I’m a little disturbed by Jerry Jones flinging around draft picks though. A 1^st, 3^rd, and a 6^th for Roy Williams? That price is a tad steep. Jones checked his voicemail to find eight phone calls from Bengals management. Seven were people screaming that he never said they’d give up all of that for Chad Johnson. The eighth was Marvin Lewis asking if any position coach vacancies were open for next season, as he may be “moving on.” Jerry Jones out of anyone knows the value of draft picks, having been on the better end of the infamous Hershel Walker trade.

I think the Cardinals need to wake Kurt Warner up earlier on game day and make him run around for awhile or something. He has been pretty bad in the first half of games, outstanding in the second. This one was no different. 60 yards, 1 INT, 1 fumble lost in the first half, 200+ yards, 2 TDs in the second. In all, Arizona has 115 second half points to 62 first half.

The Cardinals defense through this whole thing has been underrated. If you just forget about the Brett Favre scorching of this team, you’ll see that they have no allowed a 100 yard rusher all season….despite playing against Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Marion Barber, Ronnie Brown, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch. They are allowing 17.6 points per game and 302 yards. They are tied for second as a team with 18 sacks. Once again this week they stuffed the run and hurried Tony Romo into making some bad throws and checking down quite often to Marion Barber. 7/14 Cowboys possessions were limited to one series of downs (One resulted in a missed field goal). Not bad for a group with only one pro bowler.

Has Terrell Owens been figured out? Again a defending team put a corner up on him tight (Rod Hood and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie split time at it) and covered him deep with a safety. Again Owens had a fairly subpar outing. Hopefully Roy Williams will force teams to reconsider this game plan, but for now stopping Terrell Owens doesn’t look that tough.

Statistical Notes – Kurt Warner has at least 2 TD passes in his last five games. He is on pace for 4600 yards and 32 TDs. Steve Breaston has 24 catches for 296 yards in the last three games. He had 166 yards in his first 19 games. Jason Witten is currently 3^rd In the NFL in receptions (39) and 5^th in receiving yards (497). He is on pace for 114 catches and 1322 yards….ridiculous totals for a tight end. Marion Barber has 100 total yards and at least one TD in 4 out of 6 games. The two teams combined for 24 penalties for 163 yards.

Eagles over 49ers or “Hmmm….is Alex Smith REALLY hurt that bad?”

After a hot three game start, J.T. O’Sullivan is not looking like the future of the 49ers franchise. His QB rating has tumbled to 49.2 and he has thrown 7 interceptions in the last three weeks. The 49ers were up by 9 going in to the fourth quarter and ended up losing this game by 14. That’s some poor fourth quarter play, and a lot of it came from the QB position. 2/8 for 18 yards (One pass was for -7 yards), 2 interceptions, 1 fumble, 3 sacks. The 49ers handed the ball off once in the fourth quarter…when they should have been trying only to pick up first downs and burn the clock. They had a lot of success running the ball earlier in the game, yet they chose to try crazy WR screens and end around plays instead of sticking with what worked. Instead, they had a total of two yards on five fourth quarter drives.

Both teams were excruciatingly bad in the red zone, getting in on only 4/11 tries. This is where both team’s lack of a true fullback comes into play a little. It’s nice to be able to run when you get to short yardage situations near the goal line because the lack of open field makes it difficult to spread your receivers. It was a weakness for the run and shoot, and it’s starting to be a weakness for some of these spread offenses.

I do have to give credit to the Eagles offense. Even without some of their top offensive players, including Brian Westbrook, they found a way to keep moving the ball. Correll Buckhalter is not nearly as good as Westbrook but still got out there and played the position like is expected, running the ball and playing a big part in the passing game. Despite being completely out of football for 3 years due to injury, the Eagles hung on to him and he showed that this faith is well placed.

Statistical Notes – Rookie Desean Jackson bounced back from a bad week against the Redskins to nearly have his third 100 yard game of the season. He leads the Eagles in receptions and yards with 29 for 433. Buckhalter had the best game of his career with 178 total yards. Donovan Mcnabb has at least 1 touchdown in five of six games. Frank Gore has 100 total yards in 5 of 6 games and has scored in five of six games. J. T. O’Sullivan has been sacked 23 times, most of any QB this season. The 49ers protected him pretty well through three quarters but the line fell apart in the fourth.

Packers over Seahawks or “Dave Krieg and Steve Largent asked to join Seahawks….Decline offer.”

Just when it seemed things were going to get better for the Seahawks, Charlie Frye trots out as the team’s starting QB. Injuries have absolutely ravaged the offensive side of this team and the defense is not playing nearly as well as had been hoped for. Of course, when you are on the field for nearly 38 minutes, you are bound to start giving up some plays.

Oddly enough, the Packers fell behind early and really didn’t start clicking on offense until the end of the first half. They tried to get the running game moving but it just wasn’t happening. Ryan Grant managed to gain 99 yards but it took 33 carries to do so. 2.72 yard per carry isn’t very good. Luckily, Aaron Rodgers is quite good. He puts the ball in some really tight places. He’s got to start getting rid of the ball quicker though. In past weeks, his receivers were not coming back towards him which was a problem but they were breaking back towards the ball this week. Greg Jennings is truly looking like one of the best wideouts in the league.

Week after week I watch Marcus Trufant and can’t believe this guy was a pro bowler last season. He gets beat constantly. He seriously looks like a rookie cornerback that has no clue what the opposition is doing. I’ve seen him get frozen on a lot of plays by a simple misdirection or stutter step.

Statistical Notes – Aaron Rodgers has at least 2 TD’s in four of the last five games. Greg Jennings is on pace for 1700+ receiving yards. Ryan grant averaged 5.1 YPC last season but is down to 3.4 YPC this season. That’s a pretty big drop. Charles Woodson has been very good this season and has four interceptions. Julius Jones is still on pace for an 1100 yard season.

Chargers over Patriots or “It’s official. The Patriots do not have the talent to win without Tom Brady.”

A struggling 2-3 Chargers team hosted a 3-1 Patriots team that I was unsure of. The Chargers exposed the Patriots on offense and defense. It’s official. This team is going to have a tough time winning the division.

Philip Rivers has a few down weeks and Ladainian Tomlinson a few up weeks . Early in the season I thought it was becoming Rivers’ team. I pulled back on that for a few weeks but now I am back to believing the team does belong to Philip Rivers. Playing without his touchdown machine wideout Chris Chambers, Philip Rivers shredded the Patriots secondary. Actually, I’d like to revise that statement. Vincent Jackson, In the unprecedented #1 WR role shredded Ellis Hobbs. Jackson has quietly became the #1 option for Rivers and has led the team in receptions and yards just about the entire season.

I do have to wonder how this team would be WITH Tom Brady at this point though. Matt Cassell was put under a little of pressure by the Chargers defense and was sacked four times. I can’t remember the number but Tom Brady was sacked very few times in 2007. While a lot of the sacks may have been avoided by a cooler headed Brady getting rid of the ball quicker, some of them simply had to do with a banged up offensive line.

I really looked forward to this Sunday Night Matchup but quit watching by mid-third quarter. It was just plain ugly.

Statistical Notes – Ladainian Tomlinson is averaging a career worse 88.1 total yards per game. He has never been under 100. He has four games without a TD out of six games. In his previous 32 games, he had a total of seven games without scoring. Philip Rivers has thrown at least one TD pass in every game and three TD passes in 4 of 6. He is on pace for 4000 yards passing, 37 TDs, and 11 INT’s. Antonio Gates is on pace for 53 catches for 670 yards. His worst season other than his rookie year had him post 71 catches for 924. Wes Welker caught 9 balls to put his season total at 36 in five games, an average of over 7 catches per game. Who leads the Patriots in touchdowns scored? Randy Moss? Wes Welker? Nope, it’s Sammy Morris!

Tight End Fad over?

Last season we saw Tight Ends all over the top 32 when it came to receptions or receiving yards. There were no fewer than 6 in any statistical major receiving category. This season so far, Only Jason Witten and Chris Cooley are on the yardage list, with Owen Daniels added to the reception list. Only 6 Tight Ends have more than 20 catches, 3 have more than 300 yards, and only one (Antonio Gates) has more than 2 TD’s. Injuries have played a factor with some of these players, but more so it seems that teams have figured out how to cover tight ends In the receiving game.

Jets over Bengals or “This game was really really dull.”

Usually when teams come out and do not put up a lot of yardage, the game is dubbed a defensive struggle. Seeing as how neither defense played all that well, I think of this game more as an offensive struggle. As in, both offensives really struggled. The First four Bengals drives…Punt, Punt, Fumble, Punt for a total of 4 yards. The first four Bengals drives of the second half: Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt for a total of 39 yards. Yup, that’s 43 yards in eight drives.

We did get to see Brett Favre throw for three Touchdowns in a single drive. 3^rd and goal from the four. Touchdown Dustin Keller! Nope. Ineligible man downfield. 3^rd and goal from the 9. Touchdown Jerricho Cotchery! Nope, offensive pass interference Chansi Stuckey. 3^rd and goal from the 19. This is a really hard play to convert. Brett drops back, imcomplete. Nope! Illegal contact, Bengals. First down. A few plays later, Favre threw another touchdown this time to Thomas Jones. This one finally stuck. Favre got his team pretty deep in Jets Territory and threw two very ill advised interceptions. One was on 2^nd and 9 from the Bengals 21, with Brett Favre falling away and throwing to the other side of the field. Brett Favre is a lot of fun to watch but he sure can break your heart when he tries to force things.

Chris Perry and newly obtained Cedric Benson combined for 20 yards on 15 carries. Harvard graduate Ryan Fitzpatrick rushed for 23 yards and a touchdown on 6 carries. Seriously, Ryan Fitzpatrick is hardly what I’d call a “Running QB.” If Fitzpatrick is your leading rusher you need some serious rethinking of your strategies.

Statistical Notes – Old man Favre has 13 TD’s in 5 games and threw more interceptions than TD’s for the first time as a jet. Frighteningly enough, he’s on pace for 42 TD’s (Would be a career high), is completing 71% of his passes (Career high) and has a 103 passer rating (Career high). He’s 39 years old and is on pace for arguably his best statistical season. Jerricho Cotchery and Lavernious Coles are both on pace for 84 catches, over 1000 yards, and over 10 TDs. The Jets defense ran up 5 more sacks bringing the season total to 18 in only 5 games. T.J. Houshmanzedeh has 38 catches and is on pace for a 100 catch season. Chad Johnson has only 19 grabs. He also leads the team with TD’s with…..3. The Bengals are last In the league in YPC with a pitiful 3.1, bolstered by Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 6.3 YPC average. Chris Perry has only 300 total yards and five fumbles! He fumbles once for every 60 yards he gains!

Browns over Giants or “And thus ends a horrible week for the NFC East.”

The Redskins got beat by the winless Rams, the 1 win Browns take out the undefeated Giants, the perennial doormat Cardinals take out the Cowboys, and the Eagles have to rally in the fourth quarter against the 49ers. Eli Manning, who has been spectacular this season, really regressed. He threw three interceptions…all on very poor reads and throws. One was forced deep into double coverage, one was thrown 10 yards over his target, and the final one was thrown to a receiver well covered while falling backwards. These are not throws Eli would have been making.

The Giants defense that has been so good were held to zero sacks. They had averaged four in each of the first four games. They averaged 236 yards allowed. The Browns hung amassed 454. Derek Anderson finally got clicking with his wideout Braylon Edwards who decided it was a good time to start holding onto the ball. What was most impressive as far as Anderson was concerned, was that top target Kellen Winslow was in the hospital Ill. Backup tight end entered the game and Anderson didn’t miss a beat with him.

One aspect of the Giants offense that was still firing was the running game. They put up 167 yards on 25 carries….7.24 yards per. Derrick Ward was the big runner with over 100 yards on only 10 carries….

Don’t count the Browns back in the playoff hunt yet, though. Out of the remaining 11 games, only 3 (Ravens, Texans, Begals) are against teams with losing records…and the Browns had a hard time with the Bengals earlier.

Statistical Notes – Eli Manning came into the game with four straight 200+ yard games and one INT. He left with less than 200 yards and 3 INTs. Brandon Jacobs is on pace for over 1500 Total yards and Derrick Ward is on pace for over 1200 total yards. They both could go over 1000 yards rushing. I’d imagine it’s been a long time since that has happened. Braylon Edwards had 95 yards in his first four games and 154 this Monday. Perhaps he has turned the corner? Derek Anderson’s previous season high was 166 passing yards. He threw for 310. He threw more than one TD for the first time this season. Jamal Lewis had 156 yards and 0 TD’s in the first three games, 167 and 2 TD’s in the last two.

Carnage Guessing on games:

Oh boy. Another wondering 7-6 week. Mind you 3 of the games I lost were the last second games, and I did call Cowboys over Texans!

Bears over Falcons

Texans over Dolphins (If Schaub plays. If for some reason he still has the “Stomach flu” I get the Dolphins)

Ravens over Colts

Vikings over Lions

Saints over Raiders

Jets over Bengals

Panthers over Buccaneers

Redskins over Rams

Broncos over Jaguars

Eagles over 49ers

Packers over Seahawks

Chargers over Patriots

Giants over Browns

Crazy Upset pick! Cardinals over Cowboys

That Puts me at 55-32 on the year. Hardly worth writing home about. Here we go for next week.

Bills over Chargers

Saints over Panthers

Vikings over Bears

Steelers over Bengals

Titans over Chiefs

Dolphins over Ravens

Giants over 49ers

Cowboys over Rams

Texans over Lions

Jets over Raiders

Redskins over Browns

Bucs over Seahawks

Broncos over Patriots

Crazy Upset Pick – Packers over Cowboys.

Too many road winners, I know, but hey! Giving the Home team an edge hasn’t been working that well lately. I’ll see you next week where I will tell you which 16 teams (Yes, already) are done for the season.

Passing game – During the off season, I speculated that teams would look towards the running game more because of the issues they were likely to face with the new force out rules. I thought the force out rules would have a tremendous impact on the game (And I still think it may evolve to when some of the more crafty DB’s start getting good at pushing out on sideline routes) when it came to play calling. At this time last season, Teams were passing the ball on 56.75% of plays. This season, teams are passing the ball 57.6% of the time. Obviously this isn’t an enormous difference but it does show that the general trend towards west coast/spread offenses and short passes instead of runs is one that is alive and well.

The trend toward shorter, high percentage passes is also reflected by the higher completion percentages and passer ratings we see nowadays. If you look back at the year 2001, the numbers 6-10 QB’s in passer rating were between 84.1 and 84.3. The AVERAGE passer rating in the NFL so far this year is 83. The average completion percentage is 61.2%.

Titans over Ravens or “Sorry guys, football has FOUR quarters, not three”

For the second week in a row, the Ravens have come out and played ridiculously stingy defense for three 2/3 quarters and for the second straight week have found out you need to do it for all four quarters. With 3:06 left in the third, the Titans had mustered 3 points and 67 yards of total offense. The Chris Johnson/Lendale White duo who have been burning/battering opponents all year were held to a paltry 48 yards on 21 carries and were tackles behind the line of scrimmage 7 times.

Suddenly, Kerry Collins is slinging the ball and takes the team downfield 80 yards twice to put up 10 points. Of course, there is a different story here, one that was in effect all game long. Penalties. With 6 minutes left in the game Collins threw an incomplete pass on 3^rd and 10 deep in their territory. There was also a false start penalty on the play. False start means the play is dead, right? Not if the QB gets tapped on the shoulder apparently! Instead of 3^rd and 15 the Titans advance 15 yards, get a fresh set of downs, and go on to score the go ahead TD.

I can’t help but wonder if roughing the passer would have been called if the Titans and Ravens (And even the Titans and Titans) were not so aggressive when plays were over, as they were flagged repeatedly for unsportsmanlike conduct and unnecessary roughness over the course of the game. With how menacing the defensive players on both sides were I could see the officials getting a little free with the flags at any signs of of a potentially explosive situation.

The Ravens did a pretty good job at moving the chains, (They had 22 first downs), but they just couldn’t string it together. They’d pick up 2, 3, maybe even 4 first downs and sputter out. The missed field goal by Matt Stover was especially devastating. The Ravens came up with a few big plays to go 67 yards in just over three minutes. A false start penalty caused the Ravens to use their last time out, get pushed back five yards, and led to wide right on a 45 yard field goal. Three points. The difference in the game. You need to take advantage of those chances when you get them.

Statistical Notes – These two defensive machines didn’t record a sack, despite relatively slow QB’s Kerry Collins and Joe Flacco attempting 59 passes. The Titans defense picked up 2 more INT’s to bring their total to 10, an average of 2 per game. Fourth round pick Le’Ron Mcclain has four touchdowns this season. The rest of the Ravens offense has four touchdowns. Todd Heap had 3 catches for 37 yards in the first three games, and 4 catches for 41 yards on Sunday. Needless to say he’s not the fantasy TE he once was.

Panthers bludgeon Chiefs or “One of the most lopsided games I’ve seen in a long time.”

The Chiefs run defense is really bad. They gave up 200 rushing yards for the third time in five games (kind of makes you wonder why the Broncos chose to throw 49 times last week despite average five yards a carry).

Everyone on the Panthers had a big day! Deangelo Williams had what is probably his best day as a pro with 150 yards and 3 TD’s. Steve Smith had 96 yards, Mushin Muhammad had 71 yards and a TD, Jonathon Stewart had 80 yards, and the defense created 3 turnovers, sacked the Chiefs three times, and held them to 127 total yards en route to a shutout. It’s a good time to be a Panther or Panther fan with the team dominating the game and going to 4-1.

The Chiefs….well….there is nothing really positive to say here. Uhm. At least their offense was only on the field for 21 minutes? Watching it any longer would have been pretty painful.

Statistical Notes – Good news? Larry Johnson has 200 yards rushing in the last two weeks. Bad news? He had 198 of those yards last week. Tony Gonzales only had 17 yards but it was enough to pass Shannon Sharpe for most career receiving yards by a Tight End. Deangelo Williams is on pace for 1036 rushing yards. His previous career high is 717. Mushin Muhammed is on pace for his first 1000 yard season since leaving the Panthers in 2004. I watched less than three minutes of this game…and the highlight reel is four minutes!

Bears over Lions or “Apparently, it will get worse before it gets better.”

The firing of Matt Millen may be the only thing the Lions have to cheer about this season. This team is an absolute mess. Let’s check out the Lions drives, shall we? Punt, Punt, Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, Punt, Interception, Punt, TD, Punt, Downs, Downs. Yikes! Jon Kitna got sacked four more times, giving him 130 in his 36 games with the Lions. Either this guy loves football more than anyone ever or he is really really broke. He left the game with back spasms or something and I have to wonder how a guy In his mid thirties has started every game in his Lions career after taking the beating he has.

The Lions need some type of strong leadership presence. Jon Kitna is out yelling at coaches, Roy Williams is out yelling at coaches and QB’s. The team got rid of Mike Martz to bring in a coach that would try to run the ball. The Lions have passed on 72% of plays and have run on only 28%.

Everyone on the Bears had a pretty good time. The Lions D made Kyle Orton look like Joe Montana, Matt Forte scored two TD’s, Devin Hester got involved in the offense, and the defense even put points on the board. All of the sudden, the Bears are alone atop the NFC North at 3-2 and have some guys they like on offense and the swagger back in their defense.

Statistical Notes – Matt Forte is on pace for nearly 1800 total yards and a dozen TD’s. Oh yeah, he leads the team in receptions, too. Kyle Orton has 7 TD’s in his last 3 games. He had 12 in his first twenty. Is he going to be a viable fantasy QB? Devin Hester has 0 kick/punt returns for TD’s but has gotten involved in the offense and had his second TD catch this week. Lions QB’s have thrown at least one INT in 11 of the last 12 games.

Colts over Texans or “How to lose a game when up by 17 with 6 minutes to go.”

Oh Texans fans, NFL football is a cruel, cruel world. First, you take the Jaguars into OT only to lose on a first possession field goal and now THIS! Something I was wondering about.

I have not really noticed, but do they roll Matt Schaub out to his left so much? Sage Rosenfels, a right handed QB was rolling out to his left pretty often yesterday. It is something I didn’t notice until it was glaringly obvious it was a bad idea. On Rosenfel’s first fateful fumble, he rolled out left, tucked the ball in his dominant (right) arm and for some reason went leaping into the air to try to get the first down (which was bad anyway. If he slides they may even elect to go for it on fourth and 1 at the Colts 35.) and gets hit and loses the ball. If Rosenfels was a lefty, he would have tucked the ball in the opposite arm and the Colts defenders wouldn’t have had such a clear shot at the ball.

The next Texans possession, facing 3^rd and 9, Rosenfels rolls out to the left again. Robert Mathis makes a diving grab at the ball which Sage was carrying loosely in his right hand. With the pressure coming from the inside, it is unlikely that the defender gets a shot at the ball if the QB is left handed. Instead, the ball is stripped and the Colts go on to win. If the Texans indeed roll their QB’s out left quite often, perhaps they would like to reconsider and put them in a position where they can protect the ball.

The Colts offense again, for two quarters at least, didn’t seem to have the same horsepower as in years past. Peyton Manning looked frustrated. Of course, you don’t want to give Manning and company too many chances and you certainly don’t let their defense help them, because they’ll eventually turn it on. The Colts line did play a heck of a lot better than it has been, and Manning actually found some time to throw the ball.

Where was the fantasy news wire when it came to Matt Schaub being in the hospital with the stomach flu on Saturday? Come kickoff time, my wife was totally oblivious of the fact that Schaub was out for the game and had him in as a bye week starter. I know I had scoured the news looking for hints on injured players and the like for at least an hour on Sunday and saw no mention of it. Her lineup showed nothing about any problems with Schaub. She goes into Monday night now down 15 points with three players to go (Reggie Bush, Lance Moore, Vikings Defense). As it turns out, in that particular league, Sage Rosenfels would have scored…..yup….15 points. She got pretty lucky as her opponent had some players with horrible performances (See Larry Johnson) but I’m still astounded at the lack of news.

Statistical Notes – Don’t look now but 5’9″ 197 lb. third round pick Steve Slaton is on pace for 1500+ total yards (5.0 yards per carry and 64 receptions) and 16 TD’s. Kind of reminiscent of Dominick Williams busting onto the scene as a rookie in 2003, only Slaton is better. You know you are good when like Andre Johnson, you are considered to have a “Slow” start and are still on pace for 96 catches and 1300 yards. After being quiet for two weeks, Mario Williams had another 2 sack game to bring his total to 4. Peyton Manning has thrown 19 INT’s in his last 21 games after throwing only 39 in the previous 64. After starting with 14 catches for 185 yards in the first two weeks, Anthony Gonzales has 3 catches for 40 yards in the last two. Reggie Wayne has not had a 100 yard game yet this season but is still on pace for 100 catches, 1400 yards, and 12 TD’s.

Dolphins over Chargers or “Beware the Wildcat”

The cliché “That team wanted it more” is one of the more annoying ones in sports and I usually cringe when I hear it, but I thought that this game was one example where it was true. A team that had 9 pro bowlers from last season and that was picked by many to challenge for the AFC Super Bowl title marched onto a field against a team full of castoffs (Pennington), drug policy violators (Ricky Williams), guys coming off major injuries (Ronnie Brown), and guys that were laughed at as high draft picks (Ted Ginn) that went 1-15 last season. To me, the Chargers in the first half of the game looked like they were just going through the motions as if they had already won the game and were just waiting for it to be over. The pass rush was lazy and guys were standing flat footed on running plays.

I thought one of the greatest plays I’ve seen lately that shows a team attitude was when Ronnie Brown lined up in the “Wildcat” or “Single Wing” play near the goal line. Ronnie Brown took the snap and started heading left. Old, Slow, oft-injured QB Chad Pennington came in and threw one block to help spring him. Ronnie Brown made an incredible stop and hop left play to get out of the way of another tackler, looking very unlike someone who is coming off a major knee injury. He still had flat footed Quentin Jammer to beat to the end zone, but Ricky Williams came flying from the flanker position to block him out of the picture.

Right now, the Dolphins are playing hard, having some fun with the “Wildcat”, and looking like they get along as a group. Add that to the fact that they came into the season with very low expectations and they are suddenly a very dangerous team. I don’t see them having enough talent to make the playoffs, but they are good enough to ruin Sunday for some more teams this season.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are sitting at 2-3 and are really one quarter away from being 1-4, as the Raiders dominated them through the first ¾ of the game last week. The defense is really sputtering, allowing all five teams they played to rack up 300 yards. I had nothing but praise for Philip Rivers earlier this year but he was not good this Sunday. It looked like he really just wanted to get out of the rain. I think he had a hard time gripping the ball properly to throw downfield. Everyone’s fantasy darling Ladainian Tomlinson has not been able to find the same running room he had in previous years. I suspect he is on the phone right now trying to find Lorenzo Neal. With 4^th and 1 from the goal line, the obvious number to call is Tomlinson’s. This guy always finds the end zone. He gets the ball and is absolutely stopped dead. In years past, Neal would have punched a hole SOMEWHERE for Tomlinson to get through. I think his role in Tomlinson’s success is sometimes vastly underrated.

Statistical Notes – Picking up where he left off last season, Ronnie Brown is suddenly on pace for 1400 Total yards and 24 TD’s. Who leads the Chargers in receptions and receiving yards? All World running back Ladainian Tomlinson? Nope. Pro Bowl Tight End Antonio Gates? Nope. Huge WR acquisition Chris Chambers? Nope. It’s Vincent Jackson, with 17 catches and 302 yards. Chris Chambers has only 11 catches, but he has 5 TD’s! Philip Rivers had 9 TD’s to 2 INT over the first three games, but has only 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s in the last two games.

Giants over Seahawks or “Even DAVID CARR is throwing TD passes!”

We go into this game seeing the Seahawks get back two of their starting WR’s and the Giants minus one ill behaved one. That should even things out, right? Well, when both your O-line and D-line get dominated in the way the Seahawks lines were, things don’t go so well. Eli Manning had all day long to throw the ball, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmed Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward were getting into the secondary untouched. The Giants scored on their first six possessions and eight of ten.

This team is looking like a world champion team, despite the fact that big time starters from last season Kawicka Mitchell (FA), Michael Strahan (Retired), Usi Umenyora (IR), and Plaxico Burress (Prima Donna Listed) are no longer with the team. Suddenly Eli Manning is carving out his own little niche and getting out of Big Brother’s shadow, and the running game is strong again despite losing a marginal HoF candidate running back.

The Seahawks are looking pretty bad on both sides of the ball right now and are 1-3, having defeated only the hapless Rams. With some pretty big names on defense like Julian Peterson, Patrick Kerney, and Marcus Trufant, this team shouldn’t be giving up over 350 yards a game. Mike Holmgren’s farewell tour is looking to be quite a disaster.

Statistical Notes – Matt Hasselbeck’s best passing game of the season netted him 190 yards. He averaged 248 yards per game last year. The Giants are averaging 430 yards of offense per game. Eli Manning has 12 TD’s to 2 INT’s in his last 8 games (Including playoffs). The three headed monster at running back has 716 yards on only 116 carries (6.18 YPC). Brandon Jacobs himself is on pace for 1600 total yards. Despite playing only one game, Bobby Engram is second on the Seahawks in receptions with 8.

Broncos over Buccaneers or “The Brian Griese/Jeff Garcia aerial circus.”

Once again I am flabbergasted by Jeff Gruden’s strategy. Last season they were one of the NFL’s most balanced teams offensively, with a 52%/48% balance in rushes and passes. This year they are operating at a 62%/38% ratio despite having two capable backs that are averaging a combined 5.5 Yards per carry. Their passing game is averaging 5.48 yards per attempt! They are gaining more yards per running play than passing play and yet seem to neglect is completely at times. Jeff Garcia and Brian Greise completed a pretty high percentage of passes this week so it doesn’t seem as bad, but eventually Gruden is going to have to go back to this team’s strengths.

The Bucs defense did a good job “Holding” the Broncos offensive Juggernaut to only 333 yards and 16 points. I say only because before this game, the Broncos were averaging 436 yards and 33 points per game.

Jay Cutler didn’t light it up, but he did avoid throwing the ball away to a team that has 9 turnovers in the first four games. Tampa has some fast players on that defense and the Tampa 2 can be a little tricky for younger quarterbacks to read. Add that to the Broncos relative lack of a running game and you have a pretty impressive outing.

With all the offensive stars in Denver to be impressed by, I am probably most impressed by 24 year old “Who dat” kicker Matt Prater. Prater nailed a 55 yard field goal (the difference in this game) and tacked on two more. He was ¼ in his career before this season and is now 12/13 and has hit 4 field goals of 50+ yards, including this weeks 55 yarder and a 56 yarder earlier in the season. You probably would have been hard pressed to hear the name Matt Prater before the season started, even among fantasy footballers. Who’s Jason Elam?

Statistical Notes – Jay Cutler is on pace for 4800 yards, 32 TD’s, and 8 INT’s. Not bad. After starting off with 24 catches for 321 yards and 2 TDs in his first two games, Brandon Marshall has 10 catches for 102 yards and 1 TD in his second two. Unheralded rookie Eddie Royal is on pace for 96 catches and over 1000 yards. Despite averaging nearly 6 yards per carry, Earnest Graham is getting only 13 carries per game. Jeff Garcia came in to relieve injured Brian Griese. Despite having a 7% higher completion rate, a lower interception rate, a 10 point higher QB rating, and leading the team to the playoffs last year, Jeff Garcia is the backup.

Cardinals over Bills or “The Cardinals are good when they aren’t giving the ball away.”

After a brutal two week stretch where the Cardinals lost the ball 9 times and lost one of their best players in Anquan Boldin, the Cardinals looked great on both sides of the ball. They scored on 7 of their first eight possessions and put the game more or less out of reach by the middle of the third quarter.

Trent Edwards looked like he was in outer space after getting drilled by Cardinals strong safety Adrian Wilson. After watching that play a few times, I have to say I’m pretty shocked that there wasn’t a penalty called on that hit, perhaps even a fine or suspension levied. I realize that in the heat of the moment that Wilson may not have done this deliberately but we really don’t know. If the NFL has vowed to protect it’s QB’s they need to do it. Wilson’s helmet was up under Edward’s face mask. I really think if that was one of the higher profile passers in the NFL that flags would have been flying.

Speaking of flying, Lee Evans is easily the fastest receiver in the NFL on a straight fly route. I think if I were the Bills I would call his number any time a cornerback was playing soft and didn’t have safety help. It is hard for anyone to keep up with the guy.

I have been keeping an eye on Marshawn Lynch these last two weeks. I really liked his game last season so I grabbed him on one of my fantasy teams. I know he hasn’t had much room to run, but I also feel like he missed a few cuts in the last couple of weeks. I may be a little over analytical in this case because it’s one of my fantasy guys and I want him to do well, but I think he needs to take some time and make sure to improve his field vision. Of course, this week didn’t much matter because they were forced into throwing all day because of the Cardinals’ fast start.

I truly believe that Trent Edwards is a better quarterback than J.P. Losman, but Losman does have a strong arm. It’s no coincidence that the year that Losman started 16 games was Lee Evans’ best year of his career by far. I have to wonder if Losman could do a better job stretching the field and getting Lynch a bit more running room. If Edwards concussion keeps him on the bench for a week it would be interesting to see how that would play out.

Statistical Notes – Kurt Warner has at least one TD pass in the last 13 games….and at least 2 TD passes in twelve of those. He is completing 69.5% of his passes this season, which is a career best. Larry Fitzgerald is on pace for nearly 100 catches, 1500 yards and 12 TD’s. Tim Hightower is tied for the team lead in TD’s with 5…on only 46 Touches! Marshawn Lynch has not passed the 100 yard rushing mark and has 100 total yards in only one game. Lee Evans is fifth in the league in receiving yards with 432, but isn’t even in the top fifty in receptions (he has 16)! That comes out to 27 yards per reception.

Redskins over Eagles or “Second straight road win in football’s toughest division? I’d say I’m pretty impressed.”

No doubt, the Redskins are for real. Starting 4-1 and having your three division road games behind you has to have the Redskins feeling pretty good. They have some comparatively easy games coming up with the Rams and Browns at home and then at Detroit. 7-1 heading into a matchup at home against the Steelers is a distinct possibility. I really think the Eagles are a better team than their 2-3 record indicates. Coming into this game the Eagles defense was allowing only 53 yards per game rushing, was averaging 2.25 takeaways per game and 4.25 sacks per game. The Redskins put up 203 yards rushing (12 less than the first four teams combined), allowed one sack, and didn’t turn the ball over.

It’s hard enough to win on the road in the NFL, much less come back from an early 14 point deficit. The Redskins stuck it out, didn’t panic, and played their game. They took field goals early and kept plugging away. The defense stepped it up and the Eagles didn’t see Redskins territory on office from the end of the first quarter until the middle of the fourth.

The Eagles kept it close and I can’t help but think that Brian Westbrook’s broken ribs had something to do with it. He didn’t seem nearly as quick as he usually is and was definitely tentative when running at Redskins defenders, obviously not wanting to get hit. My question is if the Eagles trainers took him back into the locker room and checked him out, how on Earth did he get cleared to go back into the game? If you get hit too hard with broken ribs, really bad things can happen. Most athletes when given the choice of playing or sitting it out on the sidelines are going to say they want back in. The Trainers are responsible for making rational decisions in the best interest of the Athlete’s long term health. The Eagles staff failed miserably on this count.

Many people were taking potshots at new Redskins head coach Jim Zorn and his offensive coordinator Sherman Smith before the season started, but I think they have done a marvelous job figuring out how to use their offensive weapons. Last year, I thought at times they would neglect the running game, neglect the wide receivers, or use Chris Cooley early on as only a blocking tight end. A run heavy version of the west coast offense fits the bill for getting all of these guys involved (Although Santana Moss was kept silent Asante Samuel this week) from week to week. Clinton Portis is benefitting greatly from the play calling. Last season, he was given 20 carries only once in the first seven weeks. This season he has carried the ball at least 20 times in each of the first five games. It’s easy to forget that Portis is only 27 years old. He seems to really be hitting the peak of his career, finding holes, making the cuts, making defenders miss, and breaking tackles.

Statistical Notes – Chris Cooley had a career high 109 receiving yards on Sunday, only the second time he passed the 100 yard mark (I was pretty surprised by this). After throwing only one more TD than INT’s last season, Jason Campbell has started out with 6 TD’s and 0 INT’s in the first five games. If Clinton Portis can keep his current workload, he is on pace for a career high 1644 rushing yards. Donovan Mcnabb threw for 642 yards, 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s in his first two games and 654 yards, 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s in the last three. Desean Jackson came into the game averaging 5.5 catches and 84 yards per game. He had one catch for seven yards (He did have a punt return for a touchdown, however).

Patriots over 49ers “Solution to passing woes – throw it to that Randy Moss guy. I heard he’s pretty good!”

After being virtually forgotten in the last two weeks, Matt Cassell finally figured out that throwing to Randy Moss is an easy way to make yourself look really good. Cassell found Randy Moss wide open a few times, including a deep ball where he torched double coverage by veterans Nate Clements and Walt Harris. A great deal of the rest of the game the 49ers played some bizarre double coverage scheme where Nate Clements was almost playing safety, starting 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage while another player (At times a linebacker?!?!) tried to cover Moss shallow. Moss kept running up and out routes and ending up right between the two. Clements would be seen jogging into the picture looking surprised. You’re giving one of the most talented wide receivers ever to play the game an 8 yard cushion on each side! What do you think is going to happen?

Gore’s Razor – Ok, this is starting to get old. Mike Martz, Mike Nolan…if you are listening I’ve been doing your homework for you every week for the last three years. Your team is now 14-1 when you hand the ball off to Frank Gore 19 times or more and 0-22 when you do not. Seriously, I think there might be a pattern here. The last time your team won a game where frank gore did not get 19 rushes was on Christmas Eve of 2005! Why then, if your team’s biggest deficit through three quarters is 10 points do you hand him the ball only 12 times while letting J.T. O’Sullivan drop back to pass 34 times? Seriously, sometimes you should set your perceived “Offensive Genius” aside and look for the simplest solutions.

I’m really starting to wonder about Laurence Maroney. He just can’t seem to prove that he is the guy the team should regard as their primary back. He’s a young, athletic, first round pick and He’s getting slightly outperformed (And thus is getting less playing time) by a 31 year old former fifth round pick who has never rushed for more than 525 yards in a season.

Statistical Notes – Randy Moss may be the playmaker, but Wes Welker has to annoy teams with his knack for getting open. Even with Matt Cassell at the helm, Welker is on pace for a 108 catch season. He has 6 or more catches in 14 of his 20 games with the Patriots. The Patriots have allowed as many points as they have scored (79). Better hold off on putting O’Sullivan’s name next to Joe Montana and Steve Young’s names. After three outings where he completed 68% of his passes and posted a passer rating of 104, O’ Sullivan is completing less than 50% of his passes and has a passer rating of about 58. Crafty WR Isaac Bruce passed two more milestones the last two weeks, seizing sole possession of fifth place in the all time reception leaders list and cracking the top ten in all time TD’s. Despite being underused, Frank Gore is on pace for 1900+ total yards and 12 TD’s. He leads the team in Total yards, Receptions, and touchdowns.

Falcons over Packers or “Where’s the D?”

The Packers injuries on defense keep piling up and so do the losses. Atari Bigby, Al Harris, Nick Collins and Aaron Rause have missed time in the secondary with Al Harris pretty much questionable for the year. Cullen Jenkins is gone for the year, Ryan Pickett is missing time, and A.J. Hawk is banged up. Without these guys in the lineup and healthy, the Packers D can’t seem to stop anybody. They were the 11^th ranked defense in yardage last season at 312 yards per game. This season they are 29^th at 363 yards per game. Take away the game against the lowly Lions and the opposition is putting up about 189 yards per game on the ground. That has to stop or the Packers will be out of playoff contention by the 12^th week.

At the risk of sounding too much like a homer, I am going to say that Aaron Rodgers has been remarkable. The defense is, well, see above. The running game doesn’t exist. Pass protection is poor. Receivers are dropping balls. The team is first in penalty yards (84 yards per game) and second in penalties (9 per game) yet, he has been able to keep the Packers in games and made some really tough throws despite a sprained shoulder. He isn’t perfect, I realize this and he is holding the ball too long and leaving the pocket too early, but he’s done a heck of a job. Ryan Grant was a little bit better this week but I thought he was going to cough up the ball on about three occasions. The Packers running game didn’t really get going until about the seventh game last year, so maybe there is still hope for it.

Another young QB doing a heck of a job is Matt Ryan. If I didn’t know better and you told me he was a true rookie playing in his fifth NFL game I would have said you were lying to me. He looks calm and composed and made some really solid throws. Michael Vick was a more electrifying quarterback but even after six season in the league he wasn’t half the passer Ryan is. The Falcons did well with their high draft pick.

Statistical Notes – John Abraham has seven sacks already this season. He had fourteen in his previous 24 games with the Falcons. Michael Turner leads the NFL with 543 yards. He is on pace for 1600+ yards and nearly 20 TD’s. He already has more yards than in any of his first four seasons with the Chargers. Roddy White is loving playing with Matt Ryan is on pace for a 1475 yard season. Aaron Rodgers has a 95.5 passer rating through five games. Brett Favre, who had a fantastic 2007 season for the Packers, ended with a 95.4 passer rating. Greg Jennings leads the league in receiving yards and is on pace for 1820 for his third NFL season.

Steelers over Jaguars or “Random Waiver Wire running backs outshine Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.”

I’ve managed to watch a lot of Steelers football this year (Being a prime time a lot helps that, of course) and am still impressed at the intensity and physical nature of their defense. Like the Ravens and Titans, it seems like everyone on the team is headed towards the ball every play…and everyone wants to lay a big hit. The most important thing is that they all know how to tackle. With the exception of the Maurice Jones-Drew touchdown, where he managed to worm out an extra half yard, I can’t remember a running play where the first guy didn’t make the tackle. I know these teams have skilled players on that side of the ball but I wonder how much of it can be attributed to attitude and leadership….a group commitment to not be the guy that misses a tackle or is seen standing still .

Ben Roethlisberger moments – I wasn’t a fan of Big Ben until last season when I really got a chance to watch him and saw how tough and how good of a passer he really is. There were two wonderful Big Ben moments this week. The first was on the Touchdown to Nate Washington. Washington was being covered by William James and ran a fairly unconvincing stop and go fly route. Roethlisberger gave a pump fake that fooled me and Washington found himself WIDE open. Later in the game despite being pummeled the last 3 or 4 weeks and having injuries all over his body, Big Ben stood in the pocket knowing he’d be hit by up to four Jaguars but threw a perfect strike to Hines Ward to convert a 3^rd and 8.

Hines Ward is known to be one of the best blocking Wide Receivers in the game. It seems it’s catchy. On the Steelers final drive, Santonio Holmes kept Rashaed Mathis away from Mewelde Moore to give Moore another 10-15 yards on an important run. Wideouts blocking downfield is an aspect of the game that is important but often overlooked.

Statistical Notes – James Harrison had a sack and Lamar Woodley had 2, bringing their combined total to 12 on the season. The Whizzinator, Mewelde Moore, hasn’t had 10 carries in a game since Christmas Day of 2005 but still ran for 99 yards on 17 carries….5.8 Yards per carry. Ben Roeslisberger has thrown at least one touchdown in 32 of his last 35 games. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have combined for 100 yards rushing only once this season. That was against the Colts when they both rushed for over 100 yards. Mike Walker had 107 yards receiving and the Jaguars had 213 Total yards. Walker was responsible for more than half the Jags yards this Sunday. He is the only Jaguars play to put up 100 yards receiving thus far.

Vikings over Saints or “How to hold Adrian Peterson to 32 yards on 21 carries and STILL LOSE!”

The Saints came in with a good game plan. On defense, stack against the run and make Gus Frerotte beat you. On offense, spread the field and attack the weaker part of the Vikings defense, the secondary. The Saints power running game hasn’t been so great so running directly at the Vikings brutal front four probably would not have gone too well. Of course, when you turn the ball over four times you can expect bad things to happen. They actually fumbled the ball three more times so that number could very well have been seven.

This game was dominated by special teams highs and lows. The two teams combined for 471 return yards. Martin Gramatica had a field goal blocked early in the game that went the other way for a TD. Reggie Bush had two fantastic punt returns for touchdowns and was pretty close to having broke a third one. Late in the game, Gramatica missed a 44 yarder that would have put the Saints ahead with less than three minutes to go. This also gave the Vikings excellent field position for their game winning drive. Ryan Longwell and Martin Gramatica both kicked 53 yard field goals.

Some stuff went on during regular game play, too. Bernard Berrian went out and started earning some of those big dollars he was paid in the offseason. He had two huge catches….one lazy pass thrown high in the air that Berrian came back for and made a great play on, and a touchdown pass that I think Frerotte was actually trying to hit another receiver on but Berrian came over and made another fantastic play. With little time left in regulation Gus lofted the ball up deep to Berrian one more time. Berrian nearly caught the ball in double coverage but drew a huge interference call to move the ball downfield anyway.

On the first Berrian Grab, Will Smith came in and got jiggy with Gus Frerotte delivering a blow near the QB’s face. Frerotte left the game for a few downs and made it back in. It was the second non roughing call this week where a QB was hit in the head. In addition to that call the officials missed two pretty clear face mask calls on Reggie Bush, one on his early game fumble. If you are going to call any penalties you need to call personal fouls. Injuries are piling up for a lot of teams and there are rules In place to try to help prevent more. The rules won’t do any good if the refs don’t throw the flag.

Statistical Notes – Want to see some offense? Watch a Saints game. The Saints and Opponents are averaging 758 yards per game. The Saints themselves are averaging over 400. Reggie Bush leads the team in Rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns. He is on pace for 121 catches and 1700+ total yards. He also has 3 Punt returns on nine attempts. Drew Brees is on pace for 5353 yards, despite having lost two of his top receivers in the first two weeks. Visanthe Shianco doesn’t get many looks but they do go his way near the end zone. He has 2 TD’s in the last three weeks and dropped an easy TD in week 2 that would have sealed the victory. Adrian Peterson is averaging 63 yards rushing in his last three games. Bernard Berrian has 14 catches for 267 yards and a TD in the three games since Frerotte took over. He had 3 catches for 38 yards in two games with Tarvaris Jackson at the helm.

Carnage Guesses Winners of games: I am going to try to maintain some dignity and quietly say I was 7-7 last week in my picks….that even WITH picking the Dolphins over the Chargers. That puts me at 48-26 on the year, dropping to 65%. That’s two lousy weeks in a row. I’m going to get back on track here. I have to do better than flipping a coin SOME week, right?

Bears over Falcons

Texans over Dolphins (If Schaub plays. If for some reason he still has the “Stomach flu” I get the Dolphins)

Ravens over Colts

Vikings over Lions

Saints over Raiders

Jets over Bengals

Panthers over Buccaneers

Redskins over Rams

Broncos over Jaguars

Eagles over 49ers

Packers over Seahawks

Chargers over Patriots

Giants over Browns

Crazy Upset pick! Cardinals over Cowboys

Seriously, if I actually gambled on games, I’d be scooping up the Ravens and five points. The game should be close and the Colts may win, but not by five. They aren’t the same offense they have been the last few years . They only played one defense as well rounded as the Ravens (The Bears) and the Bears frustrated the heck out of them. The Ravens are like the Bears defense, only better.

Good luck to your home team and fantasy teams. See you next week.

Panthers over Falcons or “Welcome to the Mushin”

After three subpar seasons and a bit of malcontent in Chicago, Mushin Muhammed is back to his old stomping grounds and participating in a big way. Last season, he looked liked he had lost a step. This year, he’s looking as good as ever.

I don’t know what to think of Jake Delhomme. Watching him play, he doesn’t seem that special. His stats this season have not been that solid (Before this week) and yet he makes SUCH a difference compared to the David Carr/Vinny Testaverde/Matt Moore Triumvirate. What I do know is that since he became the starting QB for the Panthers, they are 38-26 with him, and 5-10 without him. That’s a pretty big swing.

I know there are a lot of people who swoon over Julius Peppers and his high sack numbers in seasons past, but I really don’t like the guy much. He seems so hell bent on racking up sacks that he over pursued the run a few times on Sunday and caused a Pick Six to be called back for delivering a late hit to Matt Ryan’s head. He’s treated like a superstar, payed like a superstar, but I don’t think he has played like a superstar in two years.

I really don’t like the fact that the Falcons came out and had Matt Ryan throw the ball 41 times. This team has won two games by running the ball, and although the Panthers contained Michael Turner pretty well, the game was close enough for them to stick with their bread and butter. They had been using Jerious Norwood very effectively to keep Turner’s workload from getting out of control but today he gets three carries. The guy has produced when on the field these last three seasons.

Statistical Notes – Matt Ryan is 21/31 in the Falcons two Victories and 33/74 in the two losses. Roddy White is on pace for over 1300 yards. Julius Peppers has 4.5 sacks in his last 18 games. Mushin Muhammed is on pace for 88 catches and 1200+ yards. Rookie Jonathon Stewart, who has looked great, has scored a TD in three of his first four NFL games.

Browns over Bengals or “We have to watch this matchup AGAIN later this season?”

Oh man was there some bad football going on in this game. Against two of the bottom third defenses in the league, the teams posted totals of 278 and 211 yards. Their average gain per play was just under four yards. They combined for six turnovers and 15 penalties. But hey! One of them had to win, right?

Braylon Edwards finally made his presence felt by scoring a touchdown. Immediately after, he broke into some ridiculous air guitar routine. Braylon! You don’t even have 100 yards in four games and your team is in danger of going 0-4. Now is not the time to celebrate!

Derek Anderson will probably avoid being sent to the bench in favor of Brady Quinn for at least another week. He didn’t play all that well, but well enough to get the victory. With Anderson struggling and the Bengals starting Harvard QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Browns came in with the better plan – Pound the ball. The ball kept finding its way into the hands of Jamal Lewis while they passed only sparingly. The Bengals, despite Fitzpatrick not having played in an NFL game since 2005 and being in the lead most of the game, kept throwing and throwing. Man, Fitzpatrick’s first interception may have been the worst pass I’ve seen in awhile. That thing hit the safety who was playing 10 yards behind the target in stride. Seriously, can anyone tell me why Marvin Lewis isn’t hanging out with Matt Millen right now?

Everyone calls Chad Ocho Cinco a diva, a showboat, selfish, and any number of similar derogatory terms. He’s on a 0-3 team that he doesn’t want to be on with the starting quarterback on the sidelines with an injury. He makes a turning stab at a poorly thrown ball and ends up falling backwards onto the ground while the ball is picked off by Erick Wright. Wright takes off running with the ball and gets a few yards back the other way before Chris Perry hits him and jars the ball loose. Who is there running back towards the play to recover the fumble? Ocho Cinco himself. Many players in similar situations would slowly get up and walk towards the sidelines. I think this simple action shows that whatever else he is, Ocho Cinco is a guy you want on your team.

Statistical Notes – At this time last season, Chad Johnson had 28 catches for 488 yards and 3 TD’s. This season he has 11 catches for 116 yards and 1 TD. Braylon Edwards had 18 catches for 375 yards and 4 TD’s. This season he has 11 catches for 97 yards and 1 TD. That’s a pretty epic decline. Carson Palmer had 76 TD’s to 45 INT’s the last three seasons. Bengals QB’s have 2 TD’s and 6 INT’s this year. With 6 catches this game, T.J. Houshmanzadeh has 24 on the season, putting him on pace for 96. It’s hard not to be impressed by this considering how bad the Bengals are.

Baseball Interlude:
After watching my Badgers drop a game to a team that had 21 total yards in the first half, the Brewers lose on Saturday, and the Packers lose to Tampa, I needed something good out of Wiconsin sports. We got it in the form of the Brewers first postseason in a billion years. Watching C.C. Sabathia put the flailing pitching staff on his back and give up 24 earned runs in 120.5 innings of work has been amazing. Throwing 230 pitches in five days to pick up 2 much needed wins has quite possibly made him the greatest Brewer since Young, Molitor, and the gang hung up their cleats even though his career with Milwaukee is likely to be a total of just over three months long. I’m really not much of a baseball fan anymore, but It is exciting to see this team in the postseason and C.C.’s play has inspired me to some level of interest in the sport.

Jaguars over Texans or “Josh Scobee for Team MVP.”

Josh Scobee kicked a 40 yarder, 47 yarder, and 37 yard game winner to help the Jaguars get to 2-2 and back into contention. Last week, Scobee kicked a 51 yard field goal at the buzzer to win beat the Colts. He’s 10/11 this season including 2/2 from 40-49 and 2/2 from 50+. Kickers are one of the more underappreciated positions on the field, mostly because at best they are expected to hit every field goal and at worst they can “Lose” a game for a team. I suspect that the Jacksonville fans will learn to appreciate Scobee if he keeps up his performance.

Matt Schaub is really an efficient quarterback when he isn’t getting hammered. He struggled in the first two games against the onslaught of the Titans and Steelers pass rush but had plenty of time to throw on Sunday. The result was a really big game. Suddenly Schaub has a surprising amount of weapons to work with. 3^rd round pick Steve Slaton is proving to be a versatile back, even splitting out and going downfield for a huge TD. 4^th round pick Owen Daniels is starting to look like one of the better receiving tight ends in the league. 7^th round pick Kevin Walter (7 picks away from being Mr. Irrelevant) is impressing me with his route running.

The Texans can’t be feeling too good at 0-3 right now, but the have a four game home stand coming up hosting the Colts, Dolphins, Lions, and Bengals. The Colts are reeling right now and the other three aren’t very good. If they continue to play like they did today, they could be 4-3 before you know it.

The Jaguars pulled this one out, and David Garrard played more like David Garrard v.2.0.0.7 than David Garrard 2.0.0.8 but I am still stymied by the fact that they limited the rushes of Maruice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to 17 for the game, especially after the way they absolutely pounded the Colts last week.

The David Garrard scrambling show in the fourth quarter was incredible. On 4^th and 8, he scrambled for a first down. Next play, scrambled for five yards. Next play, scrambled for a five yard TD. When you are playing a QB that can move and has done so twice so far on this drive, how can’t you key a linebacker on him? The Jaguars defense looked confused when they did it a third time. The idea of a fourth time was preposterous, right? Wrong. Despite Garrard running for about 30 yards on the drive, the Texans looked utterly unprepared for another attempt and Garrard waltzed into the end zone.

Statistical Notes – Kevin Walter has 7 TD’s in his last 10 games. The Texans share the ball pretty well. Walter, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels all have 15 catches in three games. Steve Slaton has 14. Mike Walker, some guy the Jaguars picked out of the crowd as far as I can tell, had 5 catches for 46 yards. Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, highly touted free agents, have a combined 3 catches for 17 yards on the season.

Chiefs over Broncos or “I don’t understand the NFL at all.”

One week ago, I thought the Broncos were a team of destiny. I also believed that of the Chiefs, as I thought they had a good shot at 0-16. Suddenly, we have the Chiefs exposing the Broncos big weakness, their run defense. The Saints and Chargers each lost close games to the Broncos, combining to run on only 30% of their plays. The Chiefs come in and run over 50% of the time, giving Larry Johnson 28 carries. That’s irritates me because now I have to eat crow and grudgingly admit Larry Johnson is a fine player. I’ve never cared much for Johnson and blasted him bad over the first two weeks of the season. I was wrong. Fine. I’d rather not talk about it.

Late in the second quarter, the Broncos had the ball at midfield with a first down and the lead. They lined up with one WR split to the right, two WR and a TE in a “Trips Left” formation, and Brandon Marshall in the backfield. I think it’s pretty obvious what is coming here. In comes every KC linebacker and safety. TE Tony Sheaffler stumbles way towards the sidelines, missing any blocks and the two receivers get bowled over. Brandon Marshall takes the pitch just in time to see Derrick Johnson coming full steam with three other chiefs behind him. He gets absolutely clobbered, loses the ball, KC ball at the 2. If you are going to run something like that, don’t load up the side the play is going to unless you think your wide outs can block Linebackers and safeties coming with a head of steam. If you have the players to do that, you probably don’t need trickery anyway.

The Chiefs came into this game in the bottom three defensively in rushing yards, rushing TD’s, and YPC. The Broncos respond by calling 52 pass plays and 20 running plays. If you know a team is so weak at one aspect of the game, why not exploit it? In their 19 carries, Michael Pittman, Selvin Young, and Andre Hall were averaging 5 yards. Why not go with that?

Stastistical Notes – Despite only playing 3 games thus far, Brandon Marshall has 31 catches and is on pace for a 128 catch, 1700 yard, 12 TD season. He’s pretty good. Eddie Royal is also having a fine season, on pace for over 100 catches and 1200 yards. Larry Johnson suddenly has 415 rushing yards, just seven yards behind the leader Michael Turner.

Saints over 49ers or “Return of the Deuce!”

I’ve been a pretty big fan of Deuce Mccallister since he entered the league. If not for those two huge injuries, he could have had a really fantastic career. Even with some serious surgeries under his belt and turning the dreaded three oh, the Deuce still has some gas left in his tank. Pierre Thomas filled the goal line role to some extent while Mccallister sat on the sidelines, but this is a different team with Deuce back in the lineup.

With Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey out of the lineup, you would think that Drew Brees would have a more difficult time. Instead, he turned to 2^nd round sophomore Devery Henderson, rookie “Who Date” Robert Meachem, and third year “who dat” Lance Moore. Drew Brees is extremely efficient and accurate even with two of his top receivers out and Reggie Bush a non factor in this game. He likes to throw the long ball and is good at it.

New 49ers golden boy J. T. O’Sullivan is starting to feel the effects of poor pass protection that has plagued the niners for a few years. He didn’t look very comfortable back in the pocket, getting sacked 6 times to bring this year’s total up to 19. Letting your QB get hit at least five times is a good way to get the backup onto the field.

The Frank Gore rule – I’ve noted in most of my reviews that the 49ers fate is tied to the number of times Frank Gore runs the ball in any given game. If he runs it 19 or more times they win, 18 or fewer times, they lose. He had 16 carries this game and put another loss in the column. That makes them 0-21 over the last three years when Gore doesn’t get significant carries, and 14-1 when he does.

Statistical Notes – Isaac Bruce pulled into sole position of 11^th on the all time TD catch list, and surpassed Andre Reed to become the number 5 all time in receptions. Drew Brees is on pace for a 5372 yard, 32 TD season. Oh, and he’s completing 72% of his passes. Although Reggie Bush only had 7 yards receiving, he did have 5 catches putting him at 31 for the year. He is on pace for 124. His previous career high is 88. Frank Gore has 10 straight games of 100+ total yards dating back to last season.

Jets over Cardinals or “Shootout at the old folks home.”

39 year old former MVP Brett Favre faced off against 37 year old former MVP Kurt Warner. Between high flying offenses, a mob of penalties, some good kick returns, and interceptions, the ball moved around the field 1305 yards during the course of the game.

Brett Favre had a record day in his storied career, throwing for a career high of 6 TD passes. He had lots of time and his receivers were wide open most of the day, but he really showed he can still throw the ball as hard as anybody.

Kurt Warner had a particularily bad first half, throwing for less than 100 yards while being picked off twice and fumbling twice. The fact that he ended up with 472 passing yards shows how crazy his second half was. Nearly 400 yards in a single half of football.

Down by 34, a seemingly insurmountable number, the Cardinals did not lay down after the half. They came storming back with five straight touchdowns, at one point being down by only 13 with a quarter to go. Although they fumbled the ball all over the place and looked generally terrible in the first half, I give them credit for making a game out of this.

Statistical Notes – Brett Favre now is 34 career TD passes above Dan Marino’s once unbeatable looking 420. Lavernious Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are both on pace for over 1000 yards and 10 TD’s. Coles has passed the 1000 yard mark only once in the last four years and his career best is 7 TD’s. Three Cardinals players (Steve Breaston, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin) had 100 yard games. I’m not sure I’ve seen that before. Kurt Warner’s career high in yardage is 4830. He is on pace for 4888. Boldin and Fitzgerald now have 5 100 yard games between them.

Penalties – I don’t know any historical numbers when it comes to penalties, but it really seemed like there have been a lot of flags this season. This week, each game saw an average of 11.5 penalties moving the ball 93 yards. A lot of these penalties seem to be illegal motion/twelve on the field/false start type penalties that are very costly mental mistakes that teams should have worked out by week four of the season. I also have seen what seems to be a larger amount of injuries this year. Players are always getting carted off the field. This would explain such mistakes. When you start having to work with unfamiliar players, your timing is likely to be off. Again, I have no historical data about this, but it may be interesting to look into at another date.

Titans over Vikings or “Shootout at the old folks home version 2.”

Ok, so maybe this one wasn’t quite a shootout, but 36 year old QB Kerry Collins stepped onto the field against 37 year old Gus Frerotte. Unlike Brett Favre and Kurt Warner, these guys showed their age. They “Treated” us to a combined 43/78 showing with 0 TD’s and one INT.

The defenses did not disappoint. As always, the Vikings run defense was stout. They held the Titans to a mere 76 yards on 34 attempts, a 2.2 YPC clip. Their prior lowest game was 137 yards. The Vikings were also held to under 100 yards for the first time this season. Adrian Peterson did perform better than I expected, being a little banged up and playing against the Titans. This wasn’t one of his biggest days rushing, but he once again showed why he is one of the best RB’s in the NFL.

We did see Peterson fumble the ball though, a big problem for the Vikings this week. They turned the ball over four times. The Titans defense now has 12 turnovers in 4 games to lead the league.

Starting late in the third quarter, we saw some serious offensive stalling. Fumble, missed Field Goal, Punt, Punt, Punt, Field Goal, Punt, Punt, Fumble, Punt, Punt, Punt, Punt. Defense minded purists must have loved this sequence while those that enjoy high flying offenses were probably bored to death.

Expectations have been high for the Vikings this season and they have disappointed up to this point. Before the season started, I looked at Minnesota’s schedule and said I would not be surprised to see them come out and start 1-3 at which point questions would be asked about the quarterback situation, causing the team to either get it together or spiral out of control. I was right, except for the fact that they tried to address the QB situation in week 3. This offseason, they tried to fix the passing game by signing Bernard Berrian to a big contract. Berrian made a few plays but had a big drop in the end zone this week. In a league where the QB position is so important, I think the Vikings should have tried to make a trade or something this offseason. By pulling Tarvaris Jackson after two weeks, they show they really didn’t have all that much faith in his ability to perform and improve.

Statistical Notes – Vince Young had two interceptions in week 1. Kerry Collins has one interception in three weeks. Lendale White has scored a touchdown in every game this season. The Vikings paid big money for Jared Allen to come in and rack up sacks. He has 2 this season. Adrian Peterson is on pace for 1700 yards rushing and 12 TD’s. He’s averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Bills over Rams or “Bills are one of three unbeaten teams?”

The Bills are looking to be the biggest surprise of the season. Some picked them to rebound and possibly take a shot at a wild card spot. Now, they are all alone on top of the AFC East with Tom Brady out for the season. The path is clear for them.

They really need to start playing a full game though. Three weeks in a row they needed some fourth quarter heroics to get the job done. It’s an encouraging sign that the team can overcome adversity and come from behind, but that kind of thing can catch up to you.

The Bills took the lead in the fourth quarter when Trent Green threw a pass to a spot on the field that had no rams within 10 yards. The ball was picked off, and taken in for a touchdown. Marc Bulger has struggled a lot, but there have been some serious QB protection issues driving that. Trent Green had a fair amount of protection this Sunday and didn’t look so great.

The Rams are now 0-4 and Scott Linehan is gone. I wonder if that means Marc Bulger will get back into the lineup. I look at this team and wonder how putting in a QB in the twilight of his career is supposed to make things better.

Steven Jackson looked like the stud we all know him to be. To think that the Rams fretted about paying this guy, a proven commodity that is only 25 years old, is strange. Even after the big payday, even playing for a bad team, Steven Jackson is out there playing hard and playing with emotion. I think this is the kind of guy you want to build a team around.

Statistical Notes – Steven Jackson has 480 total yards already this season. The rest of the Rams team has 507. Tory Holt, who became the 16^th player in NFL history to amass 12,000 receiving yards, has eight straight games without a 100 yard performance. Lee evans has 332 yards on only 14 catches! He is on pace for 1320 receiving yards on 56 catches, with a crazy 23.7 Yards per reception average. Trent Edwards is completing 65% of his passes and is on pace for a 3700 yard passing season.

Chargers over Raiders or “Oh, Now I remember that Tomlinson guy.”

Going into week three, with Ladainian Tomlinson having amassed only 13 fantasy points and facing the possibility of missing week 3 with an injury, fantasy football players who had the first pick were probably cursing their decision not to play Tomlinson. Last week, he had 2 TD’s but his yards per carry remained quite low. This week, he seemed to be back to the Tomlinson that has been running over opponents for years. In a game where Philip Rivers and the passing game struggled, Tomlinson once again showed off his importance to the franchise.

The Raiders actually led this game going into the fourth quarter and held the Chargers scoreless in the first half. After how well their running backs have performed lately, I do have to question the decision not to keep Michael Bush and Darren Mccfadden pounding the ball. Instead they chose to have Jamarcus Russell throw the ball quite a bit. While he played well for almost three quarters, a big interception and sack/fumble led to two Chargers TD’s. The biggest mistake was probably the interception. It was a very poor read in range of a field goal that would have put the Raiders up 18-3. Instead, the score was soon 15-12.

Philip Rivers was hurried a lot of the day and the passing game didn’t look anything at all like the one that has shown up for the last three weeks. I was pretty impressed with the Raiders secondary keeping his targets in check for almost the entire game.

This win kept the Chargers from their second straight 1-3 start. As I have mentioned before, I believe the slow starts by the Chargers may be caused in part by the resting of their starters in the preseason. Tomlinson hasn’t gotten up to speed until week 4 or 5 in the last three seasons.

Statistical Notes – 2^nd year Tight End Zach Miller leads the Raiders in receiving yards and catches. After rushing for 450 yards in the first two games, the Raiders have rushed for 170 yards in the last two. Philip Rivers has throw a touchdown in 11 straight games. He only had 2 interceptions in the last eight games before having 2 this week. Despite being down in yardage and receptions, Antonio Gates has scored in 3 of 4 games this season. Tomlinson hadn’t rushed for 100 yards in four games dating back to last season.

Redskins over Cowboys or “Who was that playing in week one, anyway?”

For three weeks now I have commented that the team I witnesses playing against the Giants on the opening Thursday of NFL games looks nothing like the team that has been playing. Jason Campbell especially seems to have improved greatly. After the last four games of last season with the Redskins winning out and being led by a Todd Collins I started to wonder if Campbell was the man for the job. Week 1 didn’t help my opinion much. Suddenly he is standing patiently in the pocket and going through his progressions to make good reads. Most importantly, he is learning how to find his talented wide receivers down field instead of checking down to RB’s and TE’s.

Of course, all of this has been opened up a lot by Clinton Portis. People may still question trading a lockdown corner like Champ Bailey for a running back, but Portis is truly a talented back and is being utilized properly this year by Jim Zorn. He is getting a consistent number of touches (23, 23, 23, and 23 the first four games including receptions) and looks great. This makes defenses have to respect the run and opens things up for Santana Moss to make the big plays.

For the second week in a row, a defense did a pretty decent job of holding down Terrell Owens. Yeah, he caught 7 balls for 71 yards and a TD but that is about what passes for TO nowadays. I love the idea of having a corner play man on him with safety help should he beat the corner. Carlos Rogers broke up at least three plays in the first half. Of course, safety help is easier to provide when the safeties aren’t worried about run support. After Marion Barber and Felix Jones were handed the ball 80 times in the first three games, the Cowboys abandoned that aspect of their offense, giving Barber only 8 carries.

The other thing that happens when you double team Owens on every play is other receivers start to get open. Jason Witten provides matchup problems the way it is and Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton are finding plenty of open field. I love the constant man in motion schemes that the Cowboys employ. They cause the defenders to be chasing guys from one side of the line to the other before the snap and create confusion to get some players open.

The NFC East is just sick. The Philadelphia Eagles are once again the “Worst” team at 2-2. The Giants remain undefeated, and the Redskins and Cowboys are each 3-1. There will be a lot of great matchups between these four teams before the end of the year.

Statistical Notes – Jason Witten has become the clear cut number one option, on pace for 108 catches and nearly 1500 yards. He has had 6 or 7 catches in every game and 90+ receiving yards in 3 of 4. Because he hadn’t scored a touchdown until this week, fantasy analysts were claiming he wasn’t doing that well this season! Terrell Owens is on pace for his lowest reception total (Other than his short 7 game 2005 season) since 1999 but has scored in 11 of his last 14 games. He’s a touchdown machine. Jason Campbell, who was a career 57% completions guy with 22 TD’s to 17 INT’s is completing 65% of his passes and has 6 TDs to 0 INT’s in four games this season. Santana Moss, who has never caught more than 84 balls in a season, is on pace for 108 catches and 1700 yards. He also has scored in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s playing like a try stud. It took until week 12 for Clinton Portis to have 4 20+ carry games. He has 4 already in week 4 and is on pace to rival his Redskins season best in rushing yards.

Carnage guesses on games: I think you should take my advice only every other week. I posted a pretty terrible 7-6 (Again, straight up, not against the spread) for the week bringing my season total to 39-21, or 65% correct. I would like to think I can get that up to the 72% range. I’ll try harder next time. Seriously though, who really thought that the Bears would beat the Eagles or the Chiefs would beat the Broncos?

Panthers over Falcons

Browns over Bengals

Jaguars over Texans

Broncos over Chiefs

Saints over 49ers

Cardinals over Jets

Packers over Bucs

Titans over Vikings

Chargers over Raiders

Bills over Rams

Cowboys over Redskins

Eagles over Bears

Ravens over Steelers

Bears over Eagles or “I have no idea what is going on”

If you told me that the Bears would turn the ball over four times, I would have believed it. If you told me that the Bears would be -2 in turnovers and WIN the game I wouldn’t have. In the third quarter, the Bears drives went Punt, Interceptions, Punt, Fumble, Punt, Fumble. The Eagles started 3 Drives in Bears Territority and came away with….six points?

To demonstrate further problems with the Eagles offense, they were 2/13 on third down and 1 of four in the red zone. At one point, the Eagles had 1^st and goal at the Bears 2 yard line. You have four chances to get the ball 2 yards. Pass, Pass, Aborted Pass, Pass and a Huge opportunity turns into the Bears ball. Later, the Eagles had a seven minute drive go down to the Bears 4 yard line. This time, Run, 2^nd and goal from the one. Run, Run, Run and the Bears are given the ball back. Correll Buckhalter has done a good job considering his past injuries and trying to replace Brian Westbrook, but this offense just is not the same without westbrook. Five failed 3^rd down conversions were 5 or fewer yards to go. With Westbrook In the game, I think they convert a few of these and get into the end zone twice. Not to take anything away from the Bears defense, of course. To make two goal line stands against the Eagles is tremendous.

Although Kyle Orton threw the ball away twice, once in the end zone, and fumbled twice I think he is progressing as a quarterback. Along with Donovan Mcnabb, the two QB’s found 17 different targets over the course of the game. It is good news to see your QB’s looking around the field and finding the right guy to throw to.

Statistical Notes – Kyle Orton has five TD passes in the last two games. The season he started 14 games for the Bears, he threw nine. Matt Forte had his first career game with Fewer than 100 total yards. His Yards per carry has dropped every week until hitting a dismal 2.3 on Sunday Night. Donovan Mcnabb 2 games with Brian Westbrook in the lineup: 642 Yards, 4 TD’s 0 INT’s. Mcnabb 2 games without Westbrook: 458 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s. The Eagles tacked on four more sacks this week, bringing the team total to 17 in four games.

Steelers over Ravens or “Did you ever throw a beer bottle at a Police Car?”

I do not have Cable TV at home and don’t meet with the crew if the Monday Night Game is not a Packers game. I head down to a local bar and check it out. I walk in case I decide to have a drink or two, and it was raining a little so I went to a closer, slightly more shady bar than the one I usually go to for sports viewing. A 48 year old guy with long hair decided to befriend me and asked me questions like “Have you ever wanted to go home and get a gun and pump a few rounds into the juke box when people are playing country music” and “Did you ever throw a beer bottle at a Police Car? I did it at a riot in the park when I was like, 16 dude. It didn’t accomplish much.” It was funny because I was watching the football game on one screen while he kept his eye on the “Brewers vs. Cubs” hoping the Brewers would pull out the victory. The game of course, was the replay from Sunday.

I seriously can’t believe that only one player was carried off the field for this game on a stretcher. These are two really really physical defenses. 8 sacks between the two games, seven rushes stopped for losses. 470 total yards, and 27 first downs. After their first drive, the Steelers gained only 6 yards on their next six drives. I thought there was no way this team could muster up 10 more points to win. Ben Roethisberger looked as frustrated as I had ever seen him.

In come the Ravens in the third quarter, putting up five entire yards in 5 drives and fumbling the ball away to give the Steelers the lead. The teams combined for 8 drives of 0 or fewer yards.

34 year old Derrick Mason impressed the heck out of me. He was laying out for every ball, going over the middle knowing he’d get smacked, and driving the Steelers crazy. He’s a good guy to have for Joe Flacco to develop. I thought the play where Flacco scrambled in the backfield for 12 seconds was particularily interesting. Mason never gave up on the play and earned the Ravens a first down.

Dangerous punt return men Yamon Figures and Santonio Holmes were also kept in check. 10 punt returns for a total of 5 yards. That’s some good special teams coverage.

Statistical Notes – Derrick Mason is on pace for 86 catches this season. That would give him 80+ catches in five of his last six years. He could be duking it out with Hines ward to become the 20^th player with 800 catches. The Ravens D, expected to decline this season, is averaging 186 yards per game and 13 points. Terrell Suggs has a sack in each of the first three games. After rushing for 300 yards the first two games, the Steelers have 102 in the last two. Ben Roethisberger has game pass completions of 13, 13, 13, and 14 this season. He has been sacked 15 times, on pace for 60 for the season.

Buccanneers over Packers or “NOOOOOOOOOOO! NOT MORE INJURIES!”

The Packers are starting to look like a MASH unit. Luckily, it looks like Aaron Rodgers is not too hurt (Although with the protection problems, how long he’ll last, I do not know). We saw a glimpse of Matt Flynn and if Brian Brohm is worse than he is, I’m frightened.

What really bothered me is Packers receivers not coming back to the ball if their routes failed. On plays where Rodgers had time, you could see Packers pass catchers standing around. When the pocket breaks down, you run back to the ball.

I give the Bucs pass defense a lot of credit though. Their cover 2 scheme is looking to be effective once again. Speed is good.

Seriously though Gruden, isn’t it time to give up on this Brian Griese experiment and put Jeff Garcia back in? I was PRAYING for you to pass the ball. Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn were killing us. Brian Griese was giving us hope. 15/30 for 149 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT’s vs. a depleted secondary? Hmmmmmmm.

Stastistical Notes – Greg Jennings seems to be a favorite of Aaron Rodgers. He is on pace for 100 catches and 1900+ yards receiving. Ryan Grant is averaging 3.4 YPC and Brandon Jackson 5.2. Tampa has attempted 169 passes to only 106 rushes. Earnest Graham is on pace for 1300 rushing yards on only 228 carries.

Next Week’s picks

1. Titans over Ravens
   
2. Panthers over Chiefs
   
3. Bears over Lions
   
4. Packers over Falcons
   
5. Texans over Colts
   
6. Dolphins over Chargers
   
7. Giants over Seahawks
   
8. Eagles over Redskins
   
9. Bucs over Broncos
   
10. Bills over Cardinals
    
11. Dallas by 80 over Bengals
    
12. 49ers over Patriots
    
13. Jags over Steelers
    
14. Vikings over Saints
    

     

    That’s all for the review this week!