I am feeling melancholy this Sunday night. First, I gambled my only Fantasy Playoff pool on the Colts beating the Chargers. I was so sure of it. I carried one quarterback (Peyton Manning) figuring I would get two games out of him and be fine with having running backs, wide outs, or defenses for championship weekend and the Super Bowl while others were possibly stuck with 2 QB’s going into the divisional playoffs. Fantasy Football is officially over. Of course, I don’t think I’ve ever placed anywhere but the bottom 10% in any fantasy pool before. I just don’t get it.
More depressing is the fact that we are down to a mere 7 games in this NFL season (Unless you watch the Pro Bowl…..I have not seen anything more than highlights since I was 10 years old. Sure, there are going to be some really solid games out of the seven, but I already feel withdrawal coming on.
I was surprised this weekend by the results of two of the games. I was positive that Baltimore would win by the largest margin, and had great faith in the Eagles….but I thought Michael Turner would be way too much for the Cardinals to handle and the wounded Chargers would put up a dismal showing while Peyton Manning ran circles around their defensive backs. Let’s take a look at what happened, and how I feel heading into the next weekends worth of games.
Ravens over Dolphins or “Ed Reed, ball magnet.”
After deciding that the Dolphins were not going to move the ball on the Ravens, I was quite shocked when they recovered an early Ravens fumble and marched 50 yards to find themselves at 2nd and goal from the 1. Chad Pennington and his merry band of castoffs, dope smokers, and comers back from near career ending injuries were going to make a game out of this. In my estimation, they made a mistake though. The Ravens obviously were going to be playing physical, talking physical, and likely intimidating the Dolphins Offense. You have 2nd, 3rd, and 4th downs to gain one yard and go up 7 in a low scoring game. Punch that ball forward 3 times. Show them you are ready to take it right to them and don’t think they can stop you. If they do stop you, show them that you think they can’t dig themselves out from their own 1 yard line. Change the psychological makeup of the game. Instead, incomplete pass, run for zero, 19 yard field goal.
Is it just me or is Ed Reed randomly places where it doesn’t seem like he should even be…yet the ball happens to go there. Not so much this game…but other times this year he seemed to be standing in the middle of nowhere which happened to be right where the quarterback was throwing it. The guy just seems to have a sense of where the play is headed. Time and time again Ed Reed is in the picture. Ray Lewis might be the heart of this defense, but Ed Reed is either ……A. Simply dump lucky a whole lot, which is unlikely In the NFL or B. Has an absolutely incredible football IQ and is the brain of the operation. I’m guessing B. Of all the things he does well, I’m amazed how he transitions from defender to offense when he gets the ball. Many D-Backs (And certainly linebackers and D-Linemen) hesitate for a second as if they aren’t sure what they should be doing. Reed knows what he’s doing and that is trying to get the ball as close to the enemy end zone as he can.
The biggest surprise of this game had to be the number of turnovers by Chad Pennington. Pennington isn’t going to blow you away with his arm strength or take a game over by himself, but he’s always been a pretty smart QB, knowing when to give up on a play and take the loss of down instead of loss of yardage or a turnover. He has played in 85 games to this point and has thrown multiple interceptions in only 14 of them…..one disaster 5 INT outing earlier in his career, two 3 INT outings, and eleven 2 INT outings. That means 82/85 games were 2 INT’s or less. On Sunday, he threw four of them and I think all were into at least double coverage. You’ve made a living throwing the ball away instead of trying to make these throws, why force it now?
A big answer, of course, could be the threat of being flattened by a Raven’s defender. They came up with three sacks, which isn’t a huge number, but I couldn’t help but notice that on many a play a Ravens defender would at least tap their target fairly lightly on the shoulder after the throw. I wondered if that was by design to say “Hey, I was RIGHT there. Better get the ball away quicker next time.”
Miami did have a sweet sequence at the start of the fourth. Leading by 17, the Ravens were playing pretty soft at the line. Davone Bess was lined up in the slot and took a step towards the receiver split wide and a split back. Pennington tossed him the ball and he turned on the jets. He made several Ravens miss en route to a big gain. 2 plays later, the Dolphins had 2nd and goal from the 2. In a Big I formation, Tight End Anthony Fasano went into motion and planted at the “H-Back” spot. Pennington took the snap and kind of bumbled into Fasano. At this point the play looks a little broken and he goes to hand off to Ronnie Brown. Ronnie Brown doesn’t take the ball but sprints at oncoming 2 time Pro Bowl linebacker Terrell Suggs as if to pass block but instead goes around him. Suggs was all twisted up and Brown was wide open for the Dolphins only Touchdown.
The Ravens offense consisted mostly of plugging away with LeRon Mclain, and Joe Flacco did not have his brightest day. There were some moments though. To set up their first field goal, Todd Heap ran straight about five yards and cut across towards the opposite sideline. Let’s face it, the Ravens do not have many receiving weapons but somehow, Heap was forgotten in the mix. Flacco hit him in stride to take the team down inside the five.
The Next big Ravens play (I promised to be done disrespecting the Dolphins, but this must be noted) was set up by an interesting sequence. The Dolphins got the ball on their own 20 with just over 2:30 to play. Terrell Suggs busts into the backfield and tosses Pennington for a loss of 12. The clock ticks to the two minute warning and the Dolphins have 2nd and 22 at their 8 yard line. The Ravens hold two time outs. Pass complete for five yards, Ravens burn a timeout. 3rd and 17 at the 13. PASS INCOMPLETE. WHY, oh WHY are you trying to convert 3rd and 17 in this situation? Run forward and force the Ravens to let a lot of time tick or use their last time out.
Suddenly the Ravens have the ball on their 41 with 1:30 and a timeout to play with. A nine yard run gets them to midfield. With that timeout in hand, they take their time, call a play, and Flacco hits Derrick Mason on a 31 yard sideline pattern putting them well within field goal range and with an opportunity for a touchdown. They settled for the field goal, but that was poor clock management. The fantastic play on this occasion was by Mason. All year I have been praising the old receiver’s agility near the sidelines. I don’t know how many balls he has caught keeping two toes in bounds but that has been a signature play for Baltimore this season. The Dolphins (I hope…but it doesn’t seem as if they had a clue) had to know it was coming and failed to stop it. Derrick Mason doesn’t have the gaudy numbers as some Wide Receivers in the league, but I’m not sure there are very many (If any) that have been more valuable to their team.
Up by 11 with 4 minutes to go, the Ravens found themselves at the Dolphins 5, 3rd and goal. Surely the Ravens will run up the middle, tick some time off the clock, and content themselves with a 14 point lead, right? Flacco took the snap and dropped back to pass. An eternity later he was standing in the end zone as the result of a designed QB draw. Joe Flacco is either one of those guys that is really fast but looks slow, or is simply pretty slow. I’m guessing he’s actually speed challenged but he has managed to break off some pretty decent runs this season.
It was a great season by the Dolphins but they simply met a superior team. I really like this Ravens squad and think that with the Colts sent packing, the team they match up the worst against is out of the way. The Titans and Steelers have advantages over the Ravens (Experience at the QB position possibly being huge against these aggressive defenses) but the Ravens CAN beat those teams.
Statistical Notes – Mclain has scored 7 TD’s in the last 8 games. The Ravens defense has 27 takeaways in the last 9 games. They have scored 7 defensive touchdowns. Ed Reed has four of them and has more touchdowns this season than all Ravens but Mcclain, Willis Mcgahee, and Derrick Mason. Joe Flacco has 148 or fewer passing yards in four of the last five games. The Dolphins had 13 turnovers in 16 regular season games, and five in one post season game.
Cardinals over Falcons “Cardinals coaches discover that the rules allow teams to RUN the ball as well as pass it.”
I had no confidence in the Cardinals going into this game. I admit it. The stomping that Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Sammy Morris, and Lamont Jordan had me thinking 400 yards and 6 touchdowns for Michael Turner. Their complete neglect of the run in the second half of the season combined with Edgerrin James blowup early in the week made me think the Falcons would just Tee off on Kurt Warner. Somewhere along the lines, the Cardinals coaching staff realized that EVERYONE was thinking that and decided to do something different.
For weeks I have been imploring the Cardinals to at least TRY running the ball to keep defenses honest and open things up for their pass happy offense. On their second possession they came out with handoff, handoff, handoff, handoff….flea flicker and a big touchdown. Of course, Atlanta’s defensive backs were not fooled and chased Larry Fitzgerald into the end zone. He was simply too big, too strong, too fast for them to handle. Oh yeah, and Kurt Warner put the ball in the perfect spot. Man, Kurt Warner is really an accurate passer. Not to be outdone, Anquan Boldin took a short pass 71 yards for a touchdown. The play that was called in this situation was “trips left gin and tonic twist lime”. At least that is the name it went by a few years back when I was quarterbacking a touch football league. Three receivers line up to one side with one hanging slightly back. The two outside receivers run forward and twist around one another trying to confuse the defenders. In touch/flag football using crossing and twisting routes is pretty effective, so the defenders bite on one of those receivers being the intended target. Often forgotten is the man bringing up the rear. Apparently this play works in Pro Football too, as Atlanta completely forgot to cover Anquan Boldin. Uncontested, he caught a pass in stride and torched the Falcon’s secondary with a tweaked hammy. Here is a free tip for teams playing the Cardinals in the future: NEVER forget about Anquan Boldin.
I wanted to mention both of those guys to segue into a confession. I’ve been forcing myself to hate Larry Fitzgerald for a long time now, for no other reason than the fact that I really really like Anquan Boldin. This is perhaps one of the most irrational and childish opinions I have held about the NFL. This season….watching Fitzgerald…I realized that A. He is a slightly better receiver than Boldin (First time I have admitted that) and B. I really like his game. He doesn’t drop balls, he doesn’t act like a jerk, and he doesn’t whine if Boldin or (Bryant Johnson/Steve Breaston) get more looks in a game.
Anyway, back on track. This was a pretty weird game momentum wise. First you have the Falcons go down 14-3 despite second after mounting a 14 play, 80 yard drive. I always feel this is the type of thing that is most damaging to a team. Grinding it out for 8 minutes to get three points, starting to feel good, and then watching the opponent return a kick or end up with a 50+ yard rushing or passing touchdown. You worked so hard and they did it so easy! Still, Atlanta recovered and mounted another long drive, this time into the end zone. They get a turnover before half, and end up leading. They had to feel pretty good. They survived two huge offensive plays and kept the Cardinals defense on the field for 22 minutes. They had to be wearing down. It was time to pound the ball.
Coming out of halftime, a handoff got botched and bounced directly into the hands of Antrel Rolle for a touchdown. Yup, now the Cardinals have 21 points on you despite holding the ball only 8 minutes. Of course, Antrel Rolle was lucky to get into the end zone. He decided he could hold the ball out with one hand and start prancing at the 15 yard line. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan was charging him as fast as he could and almost made it to slap at the ball. It was a very foolish risk on Antrel Rolle’s part and a good display of Ryan’s determination and character. The question is…..if the Falcon’s relatively slow rookie QB was in the picture, where were the speedy veteran receivers or running backs? Standing around or walking to the sidelines of course! Falcons offensive players! Follow your rookie’s lead! The play isn’t over until it’s over. Disaster strikes? Get moving and try to do something about it!
The Falcons were flustered by this point and a loss of one, an offensive holding, a delay of game, and two drops later they have 4th and 25 at their own 5. They manage to get off a good punt given the circumstances, but a fifteen yard illegal contact call gives the Cardinals the ball on the 38. Even though the result of the ensuing drive was a missed field goal, Atlanta seemed to have their shoulders sagging and never really recovered.
Another play that could have really changed the momentum but did not was on the Falcon’s first drive. They faced 3rd and 10 from the Cardinals 20 yard line. Michael Jenkins ran and out pattern near the sticks and his defender fell down. Jenkins did not know his defender fell down and though he came down well in bounds, he made only a token effort to reach the ball past the first down marker. He had a good 2, maybe 3 steps to try something but looked like he expected to get hit and instead held on his course. Had he shifted his weight and dove with all he had he probably would have made it. Nobody likes to lay themselves out to get hit but in this case a little extra effort may have gone a long way.
Later in the game, Matt Ryan was called in the grasp while in the end zone resulting in a safety. The screen flashed to what I thought was Darnell Dockett in a fight with a Falcon’s Offensive lineman in the end zone. He was jumping and landing his considerable weight on the man’s back. A closer look revealed that it was the man who came up with the sack, Antonio Smith, who he was abusing. This is how the Cardinals treat each other when they do well? Ouch! I hate to see what happens when they are frustrated with each other! At any rate, the Cardinals defense bounced back from being horrible as of late. If that is what it takes to get them fired up, so be it.
The Falcons came charging back with an impressive drive by “Matty Ice” who completed 7 of 9 passes on a 58 yard touchdown drive to cut the lead to 6. I really think the “Matty Ice” nickname should be dropped. What kind of role model is he? A generation of Atlanta youth could grow up thinking Natural Ice is a tasty beverage! That and with his new contract you know darn well he’ll never touch the stuff again in his life.
With over 4 minutes left and holding two timeouts, the Falcons kicked deep having a few chances to hold the Cardinals. Going against every purist nerve in my body, the Cardinals threw 15 yards up the middle to Larry Fitzgerald. Ok, they got one first down, that’s huge. The will run now, right? One run, no gain, Falcons timeout. The Cardinals gamble AGAIN and throw it downfield and gain 25 yards and a first down. A standard run for 2 yards later they try a crazy reverse and lose 8 yards leaving them with 3rd and 16 near midfield. Run the ball and you take it down to the two minute warning with a chance to pin the Falcons deep in their own territory with no timeouts. No! Warner is dropping back to pass and guns it 23 yards to Stephen Spach for a first down. I didn’t know what surprised me more, the fact that they threw it or the fact that I didn’t realize the Cardinals actually had Tight Ends on the roster. Those deep balls ensured that the Cardinals didn’t have to give the ball back and were a good strategy only because NOBODY thought that even they would do that.
Statistical Notes – This victory gives Kurt Warner a 6-2 record in the post season. His two losses came by three points each and in both games he passed for exactly 365 yards. Weird. Larry Fitzgerald has 22 100 yard games out of his last 60. The Falcons were held to their lowest rushing total of the year (60 yards)…which was 203 fewer than they had last weekend against the Rams. Matt Ryan’s first regular season pass? A long TD. His first playoff pass? An interception. He knows how to set a tone I guess. Ryan threw 6 picks in his first 12 games and 7 in his last 5. At halftime, the Falcons had a first down advantage of 16 to the Cardinals 4 and were only up by three points.
Eagles over Vikings or “Why Quarterbacks matter.”
Back when Donovan Mcnabb was benched by the Eagles in the loss to the Ravens, I speculated that Zygi Wolf spent the night salivating all over the salary cap paperwork in his office, figuring out a way to get Mcnabb under center for the Vikings in 2009. There are teams out there that would love to get their hands on a veteran like Mcnabb, but for some reason the Eagles fans seem to always be on the verge of running him out of town. My advice to Philly management…..detain anyone who could possibly look at Kevin Kolb and talk themselves into him being a better option for this team. They are obviously insane.
I figured this game would come down to what the quarterbacks could do. I didn’t anticipate either team to run the ball well, and they didn’t. Peterson’s 83 yards and 2 TD’s does not look bad from a fantasy perspective but he was mostly ineffective. His one 40 yard run came on a play where several Eagles defenders appeared to trip over their own feet or something, leaving nothing in the way of Peterson and the end zone. The rest of the day was gain of 2, loss of 1, gain of 2, gain of 3, etc. The Eagle’s attempts at running Westbrook were even more futile.
Brian Westbrook still came up with one of the big plays of the game, a 73 yard screen pass that was about as pure of a team effort as I have seen. After Westbrook caught the ball, three Eagles players ran towards him to spring him into the secondary for a larger gain. Not to be outdone by their larger blocking team mates, Desean Jackson made a good block and Kevin Curtis made a spectacular block to pave the way for Westbrook to reach the end zone. The best thing a coach can urge his players to do is to never give up on a play. The odds of Curtis and Jackson needing to make blocks 50 yards away from the line of scrimmage were not real good but they were in position to do so anyway.
The Vikings probably need to give up on the Tavaris Jackson experiment. He was looking better after Frerotte went down with an injury and he was reinstated as the starter but he just doesn’t have it. Too many of his 20 incomplete passes were “cover your eyes” or maybe “Uhhhh, where was that throw supposed to be to?” bad. Ultimately it was a problem with poise. The Eagles only sacked him one time but they were bringing the pressure. He stopped even trying to plant his feet and was just chucking the ball around while stumbling backwards, stumbling sideways, or jumping in the air. I am not sure that he completed a pass more than five yards through the air all game long.
Maybe Jackson isn’t the only Viking that needs to go. I have not heard Vikings fans say too many kind things about Brad Childress and I really have to question his judgement on the Eagles second possession. Desean Jackson gave the Eagles the ball at the Vikings 27 yard line. Three plays later the Eagles were on the 26 with an offensive holding call awaiting the Vikings decision. They chose to decline it? David Akers kicked a 43 yard field goal for the first points of the game. Had the Vikings accepted the penalty the Eagles would have had 3rd and 19 at the 36 yard line. If the Vikings hold them on that down they have a tough decision to make. It is hard to punt from the 36 but it’s hard to go on 4th and 19. A 53 yard field goal is in Akers range but I’m guessing he’s a 33% success rate kicker from that distance. A miss gives the Vikings the ball at their 44.
As if the poised leader who completed a good percentage of his passes despite his receivers letting the ball bounce off their chests matched up against the sophomoric quivering mess was not a big enough advantage, the Vikings lost big time in another key area of the game. The pesky special teams. A few bad punts and some bad punt coverage cost the Vikings some serious field position. The Vikings averaged 31.6 net yards on 8 punts. Some big moments: The Vikings get pinned back at their own 10 on their first possession, Chris Kluwe punts 60 yards, Desean Jackson brings it back 62 yards, Kluwe punts from the Eagles 42 out of bounds at the Eagles 25 (Ugh, at least just kick It in the end zone), Sav Rocca punts from the 43 and pins the Vikings at their own 10 once again, Kluwe kicks it 51 yards and Jackson brings it back 30, Kluwe muffs one that luckily rolls to make it 36 yards, Rocca bangs another 51 yarder to pin the Vikings at their 15. Ouch. Average field position for the Eagles: 33 yard line. Average for the Vikings: 21 yard line. With 24 possessions, that is a big difference in real estate.
The Vikings were built to win now and had a heck of a run defense, pass rush, and running game this season. Inconsistent QB play really really hurt them. They need to rethink the position this offseason, as well as give Adrian Peterson some lessons on keeping the ball close to his body. He had a brilliant season but fumbled 10 times and seemed to be holding the ball farther away from his body as the season wore on.
Statistical Notes – The Eagles only reached the big game once, but they have been to the playoffs in 7 of the last 9 years. They have not been one and done in any of those seasons. The Vikings have been to the playoffs 3 times in that span and won 2 games total. Since throwing five picks in two miserable games against the Browns and Ravens, Mcnabb has thrown only 2 in six games. Brian Westbrook has 100+ total yards in each of his last six playoff appearances. He scored at least one touchdown in five of those games. Asante Samuel doesn’t mess around in the playoffs. He recorded his fourth playoff pick six this weekend. Tarvaris Jackson had looked much better since his reinstatement as QB, completing 64% of his passes, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt, and throwing 8 touchdowns to only 1 interception. This weekend he completed 43% of his passes, averaged 4.8 yards per attempt, and threw 0 TD’s and 1 INT. Chester Taylor caught five balls tying Bernard Berrian with 50 catches and just six behind leader Bobby Wade. Taylor’s touches were way down this season but he has been an important part of the Vikings offense since he arrived in Minnesota.
Bolts over Colts or “Ok, I was really really wrong about this one.”
Not only did I say last week that the Colts would win this game handily, but I also made claims of how Darren Sproles was a fine player yet he was no Ladainian Tomlinson or Michael Turner. The Chargers advanced the ball 534 yards on offense and kick/punt returns. 327 of those yards belonged to the 5 foot 6 inch Sproles who also hit paydirt twice (Should have been three…more on that later). On the flipside Ladainian Tomlinson and Vincent Jackson, by far the two most productive members of the Chargers offense during the regular season, combined for 25 yards. Of course, Tomlinson did not play very many snaps, but that may have worked in the Chargers favor. Perhaps the Colts underestimated the little guy a bit.
Even with the game that Darren Sproles had, the game MVP is clear to me. As special teams made quite a difference in the Eagles/Vikings games they also made a big difference here. “Who Dat” Punter Mike Scrifes was unconscious and constantly helped the Chargers maintain a huge field position advantage. The Chargers average starting field position? The 35 yard line. The Colts average starting position? The 15 yard line. Ouch. When you need 85 yards to reach pay dirt on every drive things will be tough. Check out Scrifes’ 6 punts. 51 yards to the Colts’ 10. 58 yards plus four return yards to the Colts’ 19. 50 yards to the Colts 3. 67 yards plus two return yards to the Colts’ 5. 38 yards to the Colts’ 9. 52 yards to the Colts 1. The six times the Chargers punted the Colts average start position was their own 8 yard line. It’s quite possible that this is the greatest performance by a punter I have ever seen with a nod to the coverage team too.
The Chargers defense which is now led by former Chicago Bear’s coordinator Ron Rivera used some interesting tactics to try to slow down Peyton Manning. Their Nickel package was a 2-4-5 set. The Chargers linebackers took their sweet time setting themselves and giving away any indication who was rushing the passer and who was dropping back. The Offensive line could only account for the two line men and figure out the rest at the last second. They did a good job of keeping the rush off of their QB but Manning did get chased out of the pocket more often than usual. Peyton Manning did find a way to exploit this once though. While the Chargers defense was playing their not set routine, Manning rushed his team to the line of scrimmage and had Reggie Wayne, split alone to the left run a fly pattern. Two Chargers defenders were 10 yards behind Wayne as he caught a perfect pass on the run and took it in for a touchdown.
The Chargers didn’t really adopt this plan until a bit later in the game. Peyton Manning had been very effective in the first quarter, finding Anthony Gonzales for several big plays. With 10 minutes to go in the second half Manning hooked up with Gonzales for a 20 yard gain. What is important about this moment? From this point on Manning completed the deep touchdown to Wayne when the Chargers’ defense was unprepared and later completed a 17 yard pass to Wayne. These were the only two completions after the 10 minute mark in the second quarter that went for over 9 yards. Between the Chargers’ attempts at confusing the blocking schemes and the ineptness of the Colts’ ground game their big play aerial attack faltered. From the time Wayne’s catch put the Colts up one to the ending gun the Colts ran 20 plays and gained a total of 40 yards. No wonder the Chargers were so confident going into overtime!
A new play emerged from the Colts huddle. In the second quarter facing 3rd and 1 from the Charger’s 38, the Colts wanted to run the ball. To this point the Colts runners had gone for gains of 0,1,1,1,1,2 and 3 yards. Dallas Clark lined up on the right end a body length behind the line of scrimmage. He stepped back and started to the left, taking the handoff in the process. The Chargers clearly were not expecting a Tight End reverse and Clark gained 10 yards and a first down. To start the third quarter, the Colts had a 3rd and 1 at the Chargers 34. Joseph Addai was stopped for no gain. They went on 4th and 1 and Manning threw an incompletion. If you are willing to use Dallas Clark as a running back, why not let him in the fullback role in these short yardage situations? He can be a lead blocker, the up guy taking a short handoff and smashing forward, or go in motion to the spot he would start a route if they choose to pass. I have long believed the Colts and some other spread teams hurt themselves by not employing a bruising fullback. Handing off to the up back gets you to the line of scrimmage faster. Handing to a fullback led tailback means the defense has to deal with an extra blocker at the point of attack.
Darren Sproles’ only real blemish of the game was his fumble at the 2 yard line. Trying to get those extra few yards Sproles ended up with 2 much larger men hanging on his arms. He had the ball secured with two hands but when it came down to it, he couldn’t hang on. This was a demoralizing blow because the Colts had taken back the lead on the previous possession and the Chargers were getting the momentum back in their favor with a 78 yard drive. To his (And Norv Turner’s) credit, the next time the Chargers got the ball it did not seem as if the fumble ever happened. They kept their faith in him and he kept playing hard.
Statistical Notes – Antonio Gates had his least productive season since he was a rookie but came up with his second highest reception and yardage total of the year when it mattered. He already has 2 catches and 26 yards more than he had in three playoff games last year. Philip Rivers as 78 touchdowns to only 36 interceptions in his regular season career and has a 92.9 QB rating. In his playoff career he has 4 TD’s to 6 INT’s and a 73.9 rating. Peyton Manning has led the Colts to the playoffs nine times in his career. This is their sixth one and done showing. The Colts did not turn the ball over at all on Saturday. They have not lost a game where they did not turn the ball over since losing to the Broncos in December of 2003. Dallas Clark’s 7 receptions gave him 85 on the season and tied with him Reggie Wayne. Unfortunately, he only gained 33 yards.
So now that Wild Card Weekend is over, leaving four entire fan bases crushed until next season let us see who will be walking around next week with their chests puffed out and who will be carrying extra Kleenex.
Chargers at Steelers or (Line: Pittsburgh -6)
When last these two teams met the Steelers were starting their string of heart pounding come from behind victories and the Chargers were in the midst of what would turn out to be a 1-5 stretch. The end result? The most controversial 11-10 final in the history of the NFL. Actually, the only 11-10 finish in the history of the NFL. Some large sum of money was lost when the officials made an illegal forward pass call on the last play of the game that would have put the Steelers up 17-10 and put them over the odds line. A lot of people are going to point at the fact that the Chargers have won five straight and are hot right now. A lot of people are talking about Ben Roesthisberger’s concussion possibly affecting his play. A lot of people are going to look at the final score of that regular season game and talk about how tight the Chargers played the Steelers last time.
In reality the Steelers kicked the stuffing out of the Chargers. They were able to move the ball pretty freely and had the ball for 37 minutes. It just so happened that a usually disciplined team had a horrendous outing with 13 penalties for 130 or so yards. The Chargers aren’t going to get that kind of opportunity again and are going to once again have a hard time moving the ball against an absolutely intense defense. The Chargers will be lucky to put up 10 points on this team.
Verdict: Steelers win.
Cardinals at Panthers (Line: Panthers -10)
The Cardinals jumped to a 17-3 lead early in the first quarter before some big plays by Deangelo Williams and Steve Smith gave the Panthers a 21 point third quarter. Being one of those people tremendously surprised by what the Cardinals were able to do with Michael Turner, I can’t see the run defense tightening up and keeping off the field in the face of the Deangelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart onslaught. If Anquan Boldin does not play I think this game could be a big, big, blowout. If he does play the Kurt Warner aerial circus should at least put enough points on the board to keep it interesting.
Verdict: Panthers Win
Ravens at Titans (Line: Titans -3)
Looks like the betting public is giving the Ravens some respect. A sixth seed going on the road against the team with the best record in the NFL and only getting 3? Of course, they may just be thinking that the final score will be 9-5 or something like that. I don’t really like either of these teams to do much on offense against the other. Oddly though, I think the quarterback dynamic has changed greatly since the Titans beat the Ravens 13-10 in week 5. Joe Flacco was playing like you would expect a rookie quarterback to play back then. In the meantime, he has learned how to take care of the ball a little better and has begun to target his tight end Todd Heap. Leron Mcclain emerged as a true running threat and seems to have lit a fire under Willis Mcgahee. The Titans starters have not played in a game since December 21st. Even with their fantastic line and running back Chris Johnson I don’t think they will be able to run on the Ravens. Despite reports to the contrary, I don’t think you can rely on Kerry Collins to win this sort of game for you…..at least not with the weapons available. The Titans have not turned the ball over much but after sitting for two full weeks and facing a really fired up Ravens defense, that may change.
Verdict: Ravens win.
Eagles at Giants (Line: Giants -4)
Another sixth seed going up against the number one team in the conference with the line giving up more than the 2 or 3 token home field advantage points. A sixth seed that seemed to have squandered any chance of making the playoffs after their week 16 loss to the Redskins. A team that in successive weeks tied the lowly Bengals and were beaten so bad by the Ravens that their veteran quarterback’s head was being called for after his benching. So why are people not charging to the sports book web sites by putting their money on the Giants?
Seriously, I see a little of last year’s Giants team in this year’s Eagles team. Eli Manning was taking a lot of criticism, nobody outside of the New York area really knew the names Osi Umenyiora or Justin Tuck, and the team was not expected to make the playoffs when they started to stumble. They came out and played a heck of a game (Granted they lost) against a star studded team in the Patriots heading into round one. The Eagles destroyed a start studded team in the Cowboys headed into round one. Their defense has played fantastic but isn’t garnering much attention. Donovan Mcnabb has been taking care of the ball really well. Brian Westbrook is healthy and playing very well.
The Giants are a pretty good team but it feels like they peaked too early. Their offense did not look like it did early in the season in weeks 14 and 15 against the Eagles and Cowboys. Their defense that looked so good early on has allowed at least 320 yards in six straight games, has 1 turnover in the last four, and gave up an average of 5 more points per game in the second half of the season. Brandon Jacobs and Dominick Hixon have been banged up recently and Plaxico Burress….well…. Fred Robbins missed some games recently and Justin Tuck is allegedly not 100%.
Verdict: Eagles Win
This weekend has some really intriguing matchups and is a purists’ dream playoff weekend. The top five defenses are represented amongst the eight teams. Only one of the top 4 offenses joins them. Four of the teams are in the top six in rushing offense. Five of the teams are in the bottom half of the league in passing offense. For those who don’t have a team to cheer for, break out your Ray Nitschke, Dick Butkus, Deacon Jones, Ronnie Lott, Dick “NightTrain” Lane or jersey from other defensive monster of the past and enjoy the show.
